Friday, September 26, 2008

NFL weekly picks

I was 10-6 last week; I'm 27-19-1 for the season.
Let's keep it going!

Buffalo 8 over ST. LOUIS. PICK: RAMS. Buffalo will win; but they play it conservatively, and so 8 points is too many points to give here. Besides, the Rams can't keep being so horrible, can they?

CINCINNATI 3.5 over Cleveland. PICK: BENGALS. They played effectively against the Giants last week; Cleveland has shown no offense--they were held again under 200 total yards last week.

CAROLINA 7 over Atlanta. PICK: FALCONS. I suspect Carolina will win this game; but it will be close. The Falcons can run it with Michael Turner; he had over 100 yrds rushing again last week. And Carolina's offense has been anemic--held to 200 total yards last week, again. The Birds will keep this one close.

DALLAS 11 over Washington. PICK: COWBOYS. Too many weapons; too many big-play-makers, especially now with Felix Jones added to the mix. The Redskins will try to run it and run clock, but I'm not convinced Jason Campbell can get it done on the road.

Denver 9 over KANSAS CITY. PICK: BRONCOS. Denver has an explosive offense, and frankly KC has shown nothing this year, be it at home or on the road.

JACKSONVILLE 7 over Houston. PICK: JAGUARS. The Jags have a great running tandem in Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew; the Texans gave up over 150 yards rushing last week to Tennessee. Look for that trend to continue. And the Jags are at home.

NEW ORLEANS 5 over San Francisco. PICK: SAINTS. The Saints rolled up over 500 yards of offense last week, in a game they should have won; I think they'll get it done at home. Remember that J.T. O'Sullivan has few NFL starts, and now he has to go on the road.

NY JETS 1.5 over Arizona. PICK: JETS. The Cardinals just don't perform that well on the road; and I thought I saw the Jets offense clicking a bit better at the end of last Monday night's game.

Philadelphia 3 over CHICAGO. PICK: EAGLES. Because Donovan McNabb is better than Kyle Orton; and because the Eagles defense, with 6 sacks last week, can compete very well with the Bears' D.

San Diego 7.5 over OAKLAND. PICK: CHARGERS. The Bolts are starting to get it in gear. JaMarcus Russell last week, meanwhile: only 9 for 19 for less than 150 yards. You can't just run it against the Chargers...

TAMPA BAY 1 over Green Bay. PICK: BUCS. Green Bay might be flat coming off their Sunday night loss. Meanwhile, the Bucs may have found a QB--Brian Griese threw for over 400 yards last week.

TENNESSEE 3 over Minnesota. PICK: TITANS. Kerry Collins is getting the job done. The Titans are at home. And I'm not a big Gus Frerotte believer--it was the Vikings defense which largely won their last game.

PITTSBURGH 5.5 over Baltimore. PICK: STEELERS. Yes, Big Ben is a bit beat up. But my guess is he'll play; and why Joe Flacco has been OK at home in a very conservative offense so far, again, just running it won't get it done in Pittsburgh.