Friday, September 12, 2008

NFL weekly picks

Here we go--I was 11-5 last week; good stuff!
Again, home teams IN ALL CAPS.

ARIZONA 6.5 over Miami. PICK: CARDINALS. They're at home, and I like Kurt Warner.

CAROLINA 3 over Chicago. PICK: PANTHERS. Yes, maybe that Bear defense is back. But so is Jake Delhomme, and I think the Bears last week benefited from a rusty Peyton Manning.

CINCINNATI 1 over Tennessee. PICK: BENGALS. This one's a tough one; Carson Palmer and the Cincy offense was horrid last week; but the Titans have to go with Kerry Collins, and the Bengals usually play better at home.

Green Bay 3 over DETROIT. PICK: LIONS. I know, doesn't seem to make sense. But I've followed the Lions for a long time. They tend to play better at home, especially after a bad game on the road. And remember, Aaron Rodgers is still very inexperienced, and going on the road this season for the first time. And the Pack is coming off a Monday night game; often it leads to a letdown.

Indianapolis 2 over MINNESOTA. PICK: COLTS. Peyton Manning will play better this week; it's looking increasingly likely he'll have his regular center, Jeff Saturday, back in the lineup. Meanwhile, the Vikings have Adrian Peterson, but they STILL don't have a consistent passing attack with Tavaris Jackson.

JACKSONVILLE 5.5 over Buffalo. PICK: BILLS. I suspect the Jaguars will win this one at home,but in a real close one. Buffalo is better; Trent Edwards has improved; and I hear the Jags O-line has problems. Buffalo could win this outright.

KANSAS CITY 3.5 over Oakland. PICK: CHIEFS. Mainly because the Raiders look to be horrible, confused, in disarray.

NY Giants 8.5 over ST. LOUIS. PICK: GIANTS. That's a lot of points to give up, but this line has moved over 2 pts in the Giants favor this week; and the G-men looked to be their old selves vs the Redskins last week, running the ball, stout defense; while the Rams looked totally lost against Philly. Hard to go against the Giants, given all that.

NY JETS 1.5 over New England. PICK: JETS. Yes, it's dangerous to count the Pats out--they still have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. But still, they're saddled with Matt Cassel; and the Jets have new life and Brett Favre. They know what's at stake here. I think the Jets will get it done.

Pittsburgh 6 over CLEVELAND. PICK: BROWNS. Last year, it took me a while to realize how much better the Browns were. This year, I'm reluctant to believe they're as bad as they looked against the Cowboys. It's a divisional game, they're at home; Derek Anderson will keep the Browns in this one.

San Diego 1.5 over DENVER. PICK: BRONCOS. No Shawn Merriman for the Chargers; they're on the road, in a difficult place to play, and they were far from hitting on all cylinders last week. Meanwhile Denver played, yes, a bad team, but took care of business impressively on the road and come in with momentum. How are the Chargers the favorites here??? Go with the guys with the equine mascot.

SEATTLE 7 over San Francisco. PICK: SEAHAWKS. Mike Holmgren won't allow Seattle to lay another egg like last week; meanwhile there are few signs that San Francisco will do anything more than struggle this year, again.

TAMPA BAY 7 over Atlanta. PICK: BUCS. Brian Griese is a capable replacement for Garcia; meanwhile, while the Falcons were able to get away with just running the ball down the throat of a poor-tackling Lions defense, they won't be able to do that (and protect rookie Matt Ryan) this week against the experienced Bucs.

New Orleans at Washington--pick 'em. PICK: SAINTS. Just a gut feeling here; but I'm not a big Jason Campbell believer, while I do have faith in Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, and co.

DALLAS 7 over Philadelphia. PICK: EAGLES. Not to win; but to keep it close. The Cowboys will pull it out late, but the Eagles historically play the Cowboys tough, and McNabb and Westbrook look very good.

HOUSTON 4.5 over Baltimore. PICK: TEXANS. Again, I tip my hat to the Ravens' Joe Flacco; he did well last week. But he's a rookie QB going on the road to start a regular season game for the first time. Meanwhile, Matt Schaub was horrid last week, but he'll be better at home.