David Brooks had a good column on this yesterday--key quote:
"The truth is that many of the theories we come up with are bogus. They are based on the assumption that voters make cold, rational decisions about who to vote for and can tell us why they decided as they did. This is false. In reality, we voters — all of us — make emotional, intuitive decisions about who we prefer, and then come up with post-hoc rationalizations to explain the choices that were already made beneath conscious awareness."
This is often true, and I'd add that historical analysis has confirmed it. For example, historical research has shown that one's ethnicity can influence party identification. Throughout much of the 19th century, for example, a majority of Irish-Americans tended to vote Democrat. Family ties also affects party choice. Often, we'll be influenced in our political views by our parents. And so this where today's political pundits often get into trouble. They assume voters must be making their decisions based on some kind of logical reasoning deriving from issues. Ain't necessarily so.
