Sunday, January 27, 2008

The Democrats: South Carolina and after

So Barack Obama won South Carolina, overwhelmingly; even the Clintons can't spin this one.
The New York Times suggests Obama may have the momentum now.
But now the key is February 5th and Super Tuesday, and who knows what will happen?
I suspect that Hillary Clinton's support from many establishment Democrats, unions, and her organization will give her an edge on the huge playing field that is Super Tuesday. Mr. Obama can't rely on the black vote on that day, either. On the other hand, again, Obama has shown that he is "electable", and that has definitely helped in providing "bounce" to candidates. Isn't it possible that many Californians or Missourians or Kansans, a bit tired of the Clintons, waiting to see if there was a viable alternative to the Clintons, will embrace it? Surely Obama has proven he's liberal enough for most Democratic activists.

So Mrs. Clinton might emerge with a slight edge after Super Tuesday. But I predict she won't have it won.

UPDATE: And by the way, there is evidence today that Barack Obama is running better among white male Democrats than some have said--see here...

And here.