Monday, January 7, 2008

Political thought

A lot of people suggest that, when presidential candidates win an early primary, they gain "momentum", and that's what helps them win successive primaries. Some might suggest that's what has Barack Obama surging into the lead in New Hampshire, as most polls seem to show him doing.

But my reading of the past few days suggests something slightly different: it's not so much that voters seek to vote for the candidate who won the last primary. Rather, voters often don't wish to throw their vote away on a candidate who they believe can't win. But once voters are convinced that a candidate CAN win, then, as long as there were things they liked about him, they'll move to him. That's what I think you're seeing Democrats doing with Obama. Not enough Republicans have a consensus #2 guy to whom to move for there to be a similar surge to a GOP candidate.

So it's not so much "momentum." Rather, it's convincing people who liked you, but doubted that you could actually win, that you're in fact a viable, serious candidate.