Tuesday, January 8, 2008

New Hampshire predictions

Predictions for New Hampshire---

Democrats: Obama to win, followed by Hillary in 2nd place.
Repubs: McCain to win, but narrowly; Romney a close 2nd.
Obviously neither of those are particularly bold predictions--but then, the polls seem to be pretty clear about who's got the lead and the momentum.

Obama then becomes the clear Dem front-runner, clearly. I don't expect Senator Clinton to drop out, though. The Clintons don't accept losing well or easily. She's still got money; she still thinks she can compete in places like California.
The Republican race meanwhile remains wide open, with Huckabee, McCain, Romney, and don't forget Giuliani, still in the running. Giuliani is banking everything on a big performance in later states with lots of delegates, such as New York, California, and Florida. I don't think the strategy is as much of a long shot as do others. I still don't sense that Republicans nationally have fo9und "the guy" yet. Huckabee angers many economic conservatives. McCain isn't the fave of either economic conservatives or social conservatives. Giuliani, by emphasizing his promise to appoint strict-constructionist judges, his successful war on crime in New York, and his low-taxes platform, could still become the anti-Huckabee candidate. Stay tuned.

Kevin