Saturday, January 19, 2008

Predictions: SC and NV

Nevada: well, Mitt Romney has already won the Republican caucus.
Among the Democrats, I have a feeling that Barack Obama will squeak out a narrow victory there (although, as I write this, Senator Clinton has a slim lead with 35% of precincts reporting).

South Carolina: the tea leaves I've been reading suggest that the weather there is not good today; that military veterans and other pieces of John McCain's constituency are highly motivated to vote, and perhaps evangelical Christians not so much. That Fred Thompson is surging, but it's come too late. So I think John McCain will win a narrow victory in South Carolina. We'll see.