An ABC-Washington Post poll has Obama, Edwards, and Clinton virtually tied in Iowa. That's a change--past polls had shown Edwards leading; and i saw a poll last week that had Senator Clinton with a 9 point lead. Again--the "establishment" has disliked Senator Obama's recent statements on foreign policy, and I myself don't find them particularly sensible. But that doesn't mean that Democratic primary voters don't like them. Just maybe they do.
Note also that in Iowa New Mexico governor Bill Richardson is at 11%. He too has improved his standing in recent weeks. I've read rumblings recently from political insiders that his fund-raising numbers and other indicators suggest he could still be a player in this race. We'll see.
