Poll watch

A Newsweek poll has Obama leading Clinton etc in Iowa.
Senator Clinton remains the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
But I've said it before and I'll keep saying it--if she loses Iowa, the ballgame changes and it's a real, big-time race. She certainly won't be able to intimidate others in the party with the "inevitability" argument.

Polls: Obama still moving up?

An ABC-Washington Post poll has Obama, Edwards, and Clinton virtually tied in Iowa. That's a change--past polls had shown Edwards leading; and i saw a poll last week that had Senator Clinton with a 9 point lead. Again--the "establishment" has disliked Senator Obama's recent statements on foreign policy, and I myself don't find them particularly sensible. But that doesn't mean that Democratic primary voters don't like them. Just maybe they do.

Note also that in Iowa New Mexico governor Bill Richardson is at 11%. He too has improved his standing in recent weeks. I've read rumblings recently from political insiders that his fund-raising numbers and other indicators suggest he could still be a player in this race. We'll see.

Hillary in Iowa

This is the second story I've seen already today (update: rather, make that 3; the previous link, plus the Washington Post and NY Times) commenting on how Bill is coming to Iowa to campaign for Hillary, and of course, by the way, mentioning that Senator Clinton has been strugglig there in the polls, sometimes even coming in third. (here's a summary of the latest Iowa polls of Democrats.) Why is Mrs. Clinton struggling so in Iowa? Is it simply that John Edwards has spent so much time there, really? I wonder.