Sunday, August 24, 2008

An important stat to keep in mind as the Democratic Convention approaches

Brought as always by the invaluable Michael Barone--what kind of "bounce" in the polls can Senator Obama expect after this week's convention concludes:

"Gallup poll data shows that nominees got a 5 percent or better bounce from 14 of the 16 national conventions between 1976 and 2004. And that's even for nominees that in retrospect seem less than inspiring."

So if Obama doesn't get AT LEAST a five point bounce from this week--really, at least a 10 point bounce--you will have to question just how successful of a convention it's been. Keep an eye on it.