Sunday, June 15, 2008

The general election campaign battlefield

Most in the mainstream news media suggest these days that Barack Obama is the clear favorite to win in November. So how many of you have noted this?

"...the popular vote is one thing and the electoral vote, as we learned eight years ago, may be another. In all the statewide public polls taken in February, March, April and May, McCain leads Obama in 29 states with 281 electoral votes and Obama leads McCain in 21 states with 254 electoral votes (add 3 more for the District of Columbia, which nobody bothered to poll). To be sure, both candidates lead by only a narrow margin in some states, and the numbers in some states may be skewed by polls that were just plain wrong. And enough states are close -- carried by a candidate by 7 percent of the vote or less -- to suggest that we are headed to an election as close as 2000 and 2004."

But in my view, to truly have a credible chance to win, John McCain must energize conservatives far more than he has so far; and he must figure out a way to overcome the negative narrative his campaign will be saddled with concerning age (his elderly status vs Obama's youth and energy). McCain hasn't accomplished these things yet.