I was 8-8 last week; 87-81-5 for the year.
We'll start with tomorrow's Turkey Day games, and do Sunday's battles as well:
Tennessee 11.5 over DETROIT. PICK: TITANS. The Lions will play hard, but they haven't stopped the run all year, they turn the ball over a lot, and the Titans specialize in both those things--running it and forcing turnovers. The Lions will fold once they fall behind (see last week's game).
DALLAS 10.5 over Seattle. PICK: COWBOYS. The Romo-to-TO connection is back. Seattle won't be able to stop it either. When the Cowboys offense is explosive, they're a good bet against the spread.
Arizona 3 over PHILADELPHIA. PICK: CARDINALS. You sense there's disarray in Philly; and anyway, McNabb, even when he plays (and he should start--and what was Reid doing pulling him against the Ravens' D, of all teams, and throwing Kolb into the fire like that?) isn't playing well. The Cardinals can win on the road, and played creditably against the Giants. Look for Kurt Warner to have a good game.
BUFFALO 3.5 over San Francisco. PICK: BILLS. They're at home, and back on track thanks to last week's KC game. Look for the Bills defense to force more turnovers from the Niners' QB Shaun Hill, who I gotta say doesn't impress me much.
Baltimore 4 over CINCINNATI. PICK: RAVENS. This is tricky--the Bengals have unexpectedly covered and played awfully plucky several times in the past month. But that Ravens defense...going against the Bengals' Ryan Fitzpatrick...well, big advantage to Baltimore.
Indianapolis 9.5 over CLEVELAND. PICK: BROWNS. Not to win; Indy will pull it out. But I think 9 points plus is too much to give here. Remember that Bob Sanders remains out for this one, as far as I know--look for Cleveland, under the direction again of Derek Anderson--who went to the Pro Bowl last year--to be able to move the ball between the 20s and move the chains...and thus keep the game close.
Carolina at GREEN BAY--even. PICK: PANTHERS. Aaron Rodgers is making a few too many mistakes lately, though on the whole he's played ably this year. I just think Carolina will cash in a turnover late in this one and pull out a close game.
Miami 9.5 over ST. LOUIS. PICK: DOLPHINS. Mainly because St. Louis, with their injuries and poor play stretching over several weeks now, gives you no suggestion they'll put up much resistance to Ronnie Brown and co. (see last week how Matt Forte and the Bears ran over them).
TAMPA BAY 1 over New Orleans. PICK: SAINTS. Drew Brees is playing out of his mind right now, and they're developing a running game again with Pierre Thomas helping out Deuce McAllister. The Bucs meanwhile were very sloppy in their win last week over Detroit. Sloppiness can be a tough habit to get rid of, and I think it costs the Bucs here vs the rejuvenated Saints.
NY Giants 4.5 over WASHINGTON. PICK: GIANTS. The Giants by far have been the most consistent team in the league when it comes to executing their stuff, both on offense and on defense. I see no reason for them to lose focus here in a divisional game on the road against the "Skins, who've had trouble putting up points offensively for weeks now. That's not a good problem to have vs the G-men.
Atlanta at SAN DIEGO--even. PICK: FALCONS. You think the Falcons' Michael Turner, the ex-Charger, will be fired up for this one? The Chargers seem to me to have lost this year the ability to win close games. I don't think Norv Turner's doing a great coaching job. Meanwhile the Falcons have done a great job of learning how to win, and Matt Ryan's been cool as a cucumber. Go with the Birds in a close one.
NEW ENGLAND 1 over Pittsburgh. PICK: STEELERS. Two good teams. Why my pick? Simple: I see the Steelers' defense schooling Matt Cassel--he hasn't played against them before. The Steelers to eke out a win in a low-scoring affair.
NY JETS 4.5 over Denver. PICK: JETS. The schizophrenic Broncos are hard to figure--they get an impressive win on the road in Atlanta, then absolutely fall flat on their face at home against the Raiders. The Jets, on the other hand, seem to have gained consistency and, obviously, their win at Tennessee last week suggests they're playing pretty well right now. Gotta go with the consistent ones vs the schizos.
OAKLAND 5.5 over Kansas City. PICK: RAIDERS. They still have lots of problems, but it appears as if the Raiders, and especially JaMarcus Russell (10 of 11 passing last week--who'd have thought it!) are improving.
MINNESOTA 3 over Chicago. PICK: VIKINGS. Both teams have less-than-perfect QB situations (to be kind). Both teams have defenses that can be very tough and physical, especially against the run--but that also at times lapse and give up big plays. The key: the Bears aren't at home, they're on the road; and while they have Matt Forte, he's not--yet, anyway--an Adrian Peterson. Go with the Norsemen.
HOUSTON 2.5 over Jacksonville. PICK: TEXANS. Again, I see the Texans as a team which, especially on offense, has talent and can really move the ball, whoever is quarterbacking them. For this game it'll be Sage Rosenfels again--if he just doesn't turn the ball over, Houston is fine. Meanwhile you still see talent over there on Jacksonville's sideline, but they seem to be in a terrible funk and impartial observers last week questioned their effort in a bad home loss. Have they tuned out their coach? Look for the Texans to be focused--their first Monday Night game at home, ever.
