I was only 5-8-1 last week; I'm 79-73-5 for the year.
PITTSBURGH 10.5 over Cincinnati. PICK: BENGALS. This is this week's Thursday game. I think the Steelers will win this one, but I think 10 pts plus is way too much. The Steelers continue to have injury issues, and the Bengals have played tough lately.
ATLANTA 1 over Carolina. PICK: PANTHERS. How could the Falcons let last week's game get away? I have a hunch it's playing on their minds and eroding some confidence; this remains a young team. Meanwhile an experienced Panthers team comes in that knows how to win.
BALTIMORE 1 over Philadelphia. PICK: RAVENS. Baltimore's defense has, for the most part, gotten it done this year, especially at home; and the same goes for Joe Flacco. Meanwhile one has the sense that this is an Eagles team in some disarray right now.
Buffalo 3 over KANSAS CITY. PICK: BILLS. The Bills have been struggling, but I expect their defense to force a key turnover or two from Tyler Thigpen, to help get Buffalo over the hump in this one.
Chicago 8.5 over ST. LOUIS. PICK: BEARS. Again, more trouble in St. Louis with injuries and such. Meanwhile the Bears really need to bounce back--luckily, this is just the team to help them do it.
CLEVELAND 3 over Houston. PICK: BROWNS. How can you not be impressed with Brady Quinn? Meanwhile, the Texans' Sage Ronsenfels always seem to make the key miscue, especially on the road.
DALLAS 10 over San Francisco. PICK: 49ERS. No, not to win. But yes, while the Cowboys won last week, their offense still often looked out of sync--remember, they only scored 14 points. I think the Cowboys will win this game, but I sense the Niners improving, and so 10 pts just seems too much to give.
DENVER 9.5 over OAKLAND. PICK: BRONCOS. Somehow, the Raiders' defense has kept this team and its horrible offense in some games. But I don't think they'll be able to hold down the Broncos offense, which appears to be in rhythm again, enough to keep it close.
JACKSONVILLE 2.5 over Minnesota. PICK: JAGUARS. I know--both teams coming off a loss, neither playing at peak efficiency right now, or even close to that. But I like David Garrard and his mobility, at home, over Gus Frerotte.
MIAMI 1.5 over New England. PICK: PATRIOTS. The Dolphins have been skating by lately by the hair on their chinny-chin-chin, barely edging out sub-par teams like the Seahawks and Raiders, and not exactly lighting up the scoreboard in either game. Plus, Bill Belichick has had weeks to figure out a way to stymie the Dolphins' "wildcat" offensive scheme. This time, I expect the Pats to be ready.
NY Giants 3 over ARIZONA. PICK: GIANTS. They're simply playing at a very high level; and while the Cardinals are much improved, I don't see them at the G-men's level, nor are they used to the glare of the bright lights in a big game like this.
SAN DIEGO 3 over Indianapolis. PICK: COLTS. Peyton Manning has Indy's offense moving again; they rolled up over 300 yards in the air last week AND, importantly, over 150 on the ground. Meanwhile I have a hunch that the Chargers haven't gotten it going so far this year...because this year, they just won't.
Tampa Bay 8.5 over DETROIT. PICK: BUCS. The sad-sack Lions this year actually have played better on the road than at home; their closest defeat at home was 8 points. Plus they can't stop the run. And Jon Gruden won't hesitate to run it.
TENNESSEE 5.5 over NY Jets. PICK: TITANS. Hey, how can you go against the Titans--their defense and running game has answered every challenge so far this year; and Kerry Collins has been pretty good, too. And they're at home.
WASHINGTON 3.5 over Seattle. PICK: REDSKINS. I just think the Seahawks are too worn-down, playing out the string for a coach who they know won't be there next year. The Redskins will be able to pound the ball.
NEW ORLEANS 2.5 over Green Bay. PICK: SAINTS. Here's a chance for the Saints to make up for that Monday night game they blew some weeks ago to Minnesota. Look out--Drew Brees is firing on all cylinders again. The Packer defense will find that playing against Brees is a lot different than playing against a rusty Kyle Orton.
