ATLANTA 2.5 over Denver. PICK: FALCONS. They're tough at home, they can run the ball, and the Broncos' defense remains weak. I'm surprised Atlanta's such a slight favorite; I could see them winning by 10.
Philadelphia 7 over CINCINNATI. PICK: EAGLES. Philly easily could have beaten the Giants, perhaps the best team in the league, last week; they tend to care of business in games like this. Cincy finally did win a game, but it was only over the problem-plagued Jaguars. Go with the birds.
Chicago EVEN at GREEN BAY. PICK: PACKERS. Too much uncertainty at QB for the Bears; the Packers have been solid at home this year.
INDIANAPOLIS 10.5 over Houston. PICK: TEXANS. Indy will win this game, and their win last week at Pittsburgh was a pretty courageous, plucky one. But they're still not quite hitting on all cylinders yet, either on offense or on defense. Therefore I think 10 points plus is too much to give. Look for the Texans to keep it closer.
New Orleans 5 over KANSAS CITY. PICK: SAINTS. Yes, KC is playing better. But I look for Drew Brees to find ways to exploit that defense and put points on the board. Remember that young QBs like Tyler Thigpen tend to run hot and cold; he's due for a down week.
MIAMI 8.5 over Oakland. PICK: DOLPHINS. Yes, I know, the Dolphins failed to cover last week against Seattle. But Oakland's offense is so bad, I just can't see the Dolphins failing this time.
NY GIANTS 5.5 over Baltimore. PICK: GIANTS. The Giants have been very strong at home. I respect the way Joe Flacco has developed, along with the Ravens' D; but I just think they'll be a bit overwhelmed by the Giants very effective two-dimensional offensive attack at home.
CAROLINA 12 over Detroit. PICK: PANTHERS. Daunte Culpepper, unprepared, out of football for weeks, will start again for Detroit. A case of the QB for the Lions being thrown TO the lions...
SAN FRANCISCO 3.5 over St. Louis. PICK: 49ERS. The Rams were horrible last week. Meanwhile the Niners almost upset the Cardinals, and seem to be improving under new coach Mike Singletary. And they're at home. Look for the Niners to break through.
Arizona 6 over SEATTLE. PICK: SEAHAWKS. This is a tough one. The Cardinals are still not a great road team. How will they handle their new-found prosperity? Seattle is still a capable team at home, and Matt Hasselbeck might finally play. I just think 6 points is too much to give the Cards here. Look for Seattle to at least keep this one close.
Tennessee 7 over JACKSONVILLE. PICK: JAGUARS. My upset special pick. I just see the Jags, playing at home, with a lot of emotion, having gotten things maybe a bit back on track both on the ground and in the air last week at Detroit, maybe finding a way in this one. Tennessee has been solid. But they're due to come up flat, and this is their second straight week on the road. Go with the Cats here.
PITTSBURGH 4 over San Diego. PICK: STEELERS. The Chargers have just flat-out struggled; they were fortunate to escape the Chiefs last week at home. The Steelers are banged up, but without Shawn Merriman I don't see the Chargers able to contain the Pittsburgh ground game or get enough pressure on Roethlisberger when he goes to the air. The Steelers to rebound at home.
WASHINGTON 1.5 over Dallas. PICK: REDSKINS. The Cowboys have been in a funk for weeks now--it was occurring even before Romo got hurt. Now he's back, but he's been out several weeks. You worry about rust, and can the Cowboys O-line protect him (they've been leaky as a line for weeks). Meanwhile the 'Skins are at home; they might not have Clinton Portis, but you can throw the ball against the Cowboys too. It's a tough one; but I think Washington pulls this one out.
BUFFALO 1.5 over Cleveland. PICK: BILLS. I think the Bills will force a couple of turnovers against a Browns team led by a very young QB, don't forget--Brady Quinn. The Browns seem always mired in controversy, and meanwhile this is a Buffalo team at home needing a win--they still have very real playoff hopes. Go with the Bills.
