Friday, December 11, 2009

Friday's football picks

Next week we'll pick all of the college football bowl games.
But now, on to this week's NFL picks; I was 10-6 last week, and I'm 1-0 so far this week, having picked Cleveland to cover last night...and boy, did they ever. Who woulda thunk, 5 weeks ago, that the Steelers would appear to be done and out of the playoffs by now? But, barring a miracle, it would appear they are. On to this week's games...

BALTIMORE 13.5 over Detroit. PICK: LIONS. Not to win. But to cover. They covered last week at Cincinnati, and they're starting Daunte Culpepper, who's likely not to turn it over as much as does Stafford. Meanwhile the Ravens come off a short week, and have a lot of problems on offense.

DALLAS 3 over San Diego. PICK: CHARGERS. They've got more big playmakers than does Dallas. And let's face it, they have a much better track record in December than do the Cowboys.

Green Bay 3 over CHICAGO. PICK: PACKERS. I like the way Green Bay's defense is playing right now; while no Bear fan really likes the way the Bears' offense is playing.

HOUSTON 6 over Seattle. PICK: TEXANS. Time for the Texans' big guns, like Andre Johnson, to break out at home.

INDIANAPOLIS 7 over Denver. PICK: COLTS. The Colts were very solid last week. I like their defense's chances to control Denver's offense.

JACKSONVILLE 2.5 over Miami. PICK: DOLPHINS. The Dolphins are on a roll, and finding ways to win. Ride 'em.

KANSAS CITY pick 'em vs Buffalo. PICK: CHIEFS. Just a feeling--mainly because I sense Buffalo won't be mentally focused for this road game.

MINNESOTA 6.5 over Cincinnati. PICK: VIKINGS. Look for the Vikings' defense to step it up before a sold-out, loud Metrodome crowd.

NEW ENGLAND 13.5 over Carolina. PICK: PANTHERS. 13 points gets to be too much to cover for favorites like the Patriots, who have superior talent, no doubt; but who are struggling, finding ways to lose, dealing with injuries, etc. And the Panthers' defense can still play.

New Orleans 10.5 over ATLANTA. PICK: FALCONS. Again, too many points at this point in the season. The Falcons have little to lose now, and the Saints face another trap game (a la last week's game at Washington). I suspect the Saints will find a way to win, but at home the Falcons will play them tough.

NY GIANTS 1 over Philadelphia. PICK: GIANTS. Because they're at home, they seem to have righted the ship a bit, have momentum...and the winds and cold at the Meadowlands help the Giants, too.

NY Jets 3 over TAMPA BAY. PICK: JETS. The Jets' defense will shut down Josh Freeman. And I suspect the New York offense will play well for Kellen Clemons.

TENNESSEE 13 over St. Louis. PICK: RAMS. Remember--the Rams covered last week at Chicago. This is a trap game for the Titans, after a tough loss at Indy. I'm sure the Titans will win this one, but I suspect their focus won't be what it should be.

Washington 1 over OAKLAND. PICK: RAIDERS. Hey, they're on a roll. And this is another trap game--for the Redskins, who played well last week at home vs the Saints, but lost. Now they have to take a long trip out west and face a Raiders team that, believe it or not, is playing better than many of us thought they could.

Arizona 3 over SAN FRANCISCO. PICK: CARDINALS. They're getting on a roll. They lost to the Niners way back in the season's first week, but the Cardinal defense is playing much better, and their offense has so many more weapons than does that of the Niners that it's almost not fair. I really like the Cardinals here.