Friday, October 30, 2009

Friday's football picks

I was 9-4 last week; I'm now 52-46-1 for the season.

BOSTON COLLEGE 5.5 over Central Michigan. PICK: CHIPPEWAS. This is a good CMU team with a good QB in Dan LeFevour, who beat Michigan State on the road. They can and will win this game.

Cincinnati 15 over SYRACUSE. PICK: ORANGEMEN. Not to win; but to keep it close on the road. This could be Cincy's letdown game.

Florida 15 over Georgia. PICK: BULLDOGS. Not to win; but to keep it close. I've seen no evidence that the Gators have gotten out of their offensive funk.

Georgia Tech 12 over VANDERBILT. PICK: YELLOW JACKETS. Nobody can seem to stop that option offense.

IOWA 17.5 over Indiana. PICK: HOOSIERS. Not To win; but to keep it close. Iowa lost a key RB to injury last week, and they too may have a letdown here.

Michigan 7 over ILLINOIS. PICK: WOLVERINES. They and their still-potent offense have a chance to feel better about themselves and get healthy against the battered, wilting Illini.

Michigan State 3.5 over MINNESOTA. PICK: SPARTANS. Because Minnesota just can't move the ball; and now their top receiver is out indefinitely.

NAVY 6.5 over Temple. PICK: MIDSHIPMEN. Navy is on a roll, winning last week over Wake Forest even though their backup QB played most of the game.

Notre Dame 28 over Washington State. PICK: FIGHTING IRISH. This game is at a neutral site, in San Antonio. WSU is so bad they'll wish it hadn't been played at all, anywhere.

Penn State 15 over NORTHWESTERN. PICK: NITTANY LIONS. They and especially QB Daryl Clark seem to be jelling.

TCU 35 over UNLV. PICK: RUNNIN' REBELS. Not to win; but to keep it a bit closer than that. 35 points is an awful lot, even with TCU at home. The Horned Frogs are bound to have a little letdown after last week's win at BYU.

Texas 9 over OKLAHOMA STATE. PICK: LONGHORNS. Texas and Colt McCoy too seem to be jelling. Okie State will miss Dez Bryant in a game like this.

TEXAS TECH 6.5 over Kansas. PICK: RED RAIDERS. Both teams are horribly unpredictable, perhaps Tech most of all. Tech was horrible last week. I doubt they'll be horrible two weeks in a row.

Southern Cal 3 over OREGON. PICK: TROJANS. It's a big game on a big stage, and USC always seems to come up big in such situations.

WISCONSIN 7 over Purdue. PICK: BADGERS. Purdue is not a good road team.

I was 7-5-1 last week--finally! Over .500 again!!
I'm now 54-47-2 for the year.

ARIZONA 10 over Carolina. PICK: PANTHERS. Not to win; but I see 10 points as too many here. Carolina still has a capable defense, and can run the ball. And Arizona can be a little unpredictable from week to week.

BALTIMORE 3.5 over Denver. PICK: RAVENS. This should be a close game, but you have the defense, the talent, and the home-field advantage to end the Broncos' remarkable run. Denver's had a bit of luck in this streak; it should be about to run out.

CHICAGO 13 over Cleveland. PICK: BEARS. This is a lot of points, and the Bears were awful last week. But they're at home, they're not as bad as they looked last week, and the Browns simply have shown no sign that they can exploit any team's weaknesses.

DALLAS 9.5 over Seattle. PICK: COWBOYS. The Cowboys finally showed us something last week, a big win against a good team. They appear to be jelling; while Seattle is just so beat up and injury-riddled that it's hard to see them giving the Cowboys a run for it.

DETROIT pick'em vs St. Louis. PICK: LIONS. This one for some reason is off the board. But it looks to me like, for the Lions, both Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson will play; the Lions are at home; and the Rams don't seem to have much of a pulse.

GREEN BAY 3 over Minnesota. PICK: PACKERS. The Pack is coming on; they're at home; and I suspect the emotions of the return to Green Bay might affect Favre more negatively than some would think.

Houston 3.5 over BUFFALO. PICK: TEXANS. Houston's offense is so much more dynamic and explosive than is Buffalo's, it's not funny. In the end, that will win out here.

INDIANAPOLIS 12 over San Francisco. PICK: COLTS. I worried about a Colts' letdown last week; it didn't happen. I don't see it coming this week either, despite San Fran's defense. Go with the Colts.

NY JETS 3 over Miami. PICK: JETS. I suspect Rex Ryan, with some time to study, has figured out ways to slow down the wildcat offense. And Miami's coming off a tough, tough loss.

PHILADELPHIA pick'em vs NY Giants. PICK: EAGLES. The Giants have offensive line issues and secondary issues. I know there's a question of whether Brian Westbrook will play. I say the Eagles will find a way to win this one no matter what.

SAN DIEGO 16.5 over Oakland. PICK: CHARGERS. The Raiders are just flat-out bad; that win over the Eagles was obviously just an aberration.

TENNESSEE 3 over Jacksonville. PICK: JAGUARS. Yes, I know, Vince Young is starting this week. But based on how the rest of the Titans have looked, it just doesn't seem like it will matter.

NEW ORLEANS 10 over Atlanta. PICK: FALCONS. Not to win; but to keep it close. This is a divisional game, and a big win. Atlanta can run the ball. I don't see a blowout.