So Hillary Clinton bounced back last night, winning 3 of 4 contests, including Texas and Ohio.
This surprised me--I said in this space, 3 or 4 days ago, that I thought the momentum and movement was with Obama. I think one factor that helped change this was Obama's defensiveness in the wake of Clinton's ads touting her readiness to be president in times of crisis (I'm thinking here of her ringing telephone at 3 a.m. ad)--his almost too-eager response to it gave the ad traction.
But anyway. What's most important now is: where do the Democrats go from here? In the past several weeks, I've read several Democrats, including party chair Howard Dean, mumble that somehow he thought the Clinton/Obama contest would be settled before the convention; that there'd be some "meeting" between the two campaigns and some agreement would be reached, an agreement to I guess settle the race, arrive at a winner, and avoid a convention floor fight.
I think now that's impossible. In the contests remaining, Obama looks to be in good shape to win at least half of them---Oregon, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina, etc come to mind. Clinton will win her share, too, I guess--Indiana, Kentucky, perhaps Pennsylvania (though that will be a battleground). So when all is said and done in June, Clinton will tout all the big states she won and--let's face it--the Clintons hate to lose and will not, I predict, accept defeat. But Obama, I predict, will have a lead in pledged delegates, will have won more total primaries and caucuses than Clinton, and will, when you total up every Democratic contest, have won slightly more popular votes than she did. So, what--there will be some grand meeting convened by Howard Dean and Obama will say: "Okay, I give, Hillary--the nomination is yours." Of course not.
Meanwhile, Hillary will see opportunities to win it yet by hook or by crook--by somehow grabbing superdelegate support, or gaming the system by claiming she should get a bunch of delegates from the uncounted Florida and Michigan primaries. She and her campaign won't quit, either.
So it'll go to the convention. The animosity between the campaigns will increase; Democrats will continue to be divided. It will be the only thing helping John McCain, and could be the only thing that could save his candidacy (though I still doubt it will). Stay tuned...
