Thursday, March 20, 2008

The Big Dance: NCAA Tournament upset picks

So these cover the first two days of the tournament--today (Thursday) and Friday.
I'll list here only the upsets I'm picking--lower seeds over higher seeds. If I don't mention the game, then I'm going with the higher seed to win. Let's see how I do.

#9 seed Arkansas over #8 Indiana--Arkansas is deep, and talented; they made a good run through the SEC tournament. Meanwhile IU is slumping and its star Eric Gordon is in a horrible shooting slump.

#13 Winthrop over #4 Washington State--Winthrop has been to the tournament several times in a row; they play a tough schedule; last year they upset Notre Dame.

#9 Kent St. over #8 UNLV--The Golden Flashes come from the consistently underrated MAC. They've been consistent all year, and they're on a good roll over their last 12 games.

#12 Villanova over #5 Clemson--Villanova comes from a tough conference; they had a good win in the Big East tournament over Connecticut. I'm further guessing that Clemson will be a little wiped out from an exhausting run in the ACC tourney. Plus, tournament history shows that almost every year, a 12 seed upsets a 5. I'm guessing this is it.

#11 Kansas St. over #6 USC--USC and O.J. Mayo have gotten lots of attention. But Michael Beasley can carry a team as well. I'm guessing Southern Cal's inconsistency catches up with it here.

#10 Davidson over #7 Gonzaga--Davidson has been impressive all year, and played a very tough non-conference schedule. They played North Carolina pretty close early in the year as well.

#10 St. Mary's over #7 Miami--Miami has done well to make it to the tourney. I wonder if they'll be happy just to be there? St. Mary's meanwhile duked it out very well with Gonzaga all year in the WCC; they're good.

#9 Texas A&M over #8 BYU--the Aggies played Kansas very well in the Big 12 tournament. They're record over the last 10 doesn't show it, but they're playing better. I'm guessing the toughness they've gained from the Big 12 will help them vs BYU.

#13 San Diego over #4 Connecticut--my biggest upset pick. UConn isn't playing that well right now (as their loss in the Big East tourney showed). Meanwhile San Diego is on a roll.

#11 Baylor over #6 Purdue--Baylor has good guard play, can shoot the 3, and can get on good rolls. I'm guessing they may get on a high, having made the tournament (finally) after a 20 year absence, and can blow past the slower, still-very-young Boilers.