Saturday, November 17, 2007

NFL Picks: week 11

I was under .500 again last week. Comeback time.
(home team IN CAPS)

Tampa Bay 3 over ATLANTA. PICK: BUCS. Going with that defense, and Jeff Garcia over Leftwich/Harrington.

CINCINNATI 3 over Arizona. PICK: BENGALS. Maybe Cincy with some momentum, finally? Bengals' D forces 6 turnovers last week. Arizona not a great road team.

DETROIT 3 over NY Giants. PICK: LIONS. Lions are unbeaten at home, and unbeaten vs the spread at home.

GREEN BAY 9.5 over Carolina. PICK: PACKERS. This one could be a replay of GB/Minnesota a couple of weeks ago at Lambeau. Remember, the likely Panthers QB: David Carr.

INDIANAPOLIS 14.5 over Kansas City. PICK: CHIEFS. Colts will win. But they have so many injuries; 14 and 1/2 is just too much to give.

MINNESOTA 4.5 over Oakland. PICK: VIKINGS. Oakland just can't score. Minnesota a better team at home.

PHILADELPHIA 9.5 over Miami. PICK: EAGLES. Philly still has playoff life. McNabb and Westbrook fairly healthy. Dolphins having a real down year.

JACKSONVILLE 2.5 over San Diego. PICK: JAGUARS. I'm guessing Garrard will play. Rivers is struggling, especially on the road. Jags defense can gang up on LT.

CLEVELAND 3 over Baltimore. PICK: BROWNS. Boller plays this week for the Ravens. I'm not a Boller believer. I'm becoming a Derek Anderson addict. Remember the Browns' big win over these guys in Cleveland. Browns are 7-2 vs the spread.

New Orleans 1 over HOUSTON. PICK: TEXANS. Both teams hard to figure out. But both Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson to play this week for the Texans. Saints are too inconsistent.

Pittsburgh 9.5 over NEW YORK JETS. PICK: STEELERS. Ben Roethlisberger and Willie Parker are way too tough a matchup for Kellen Clemens and Thomas Jones--even in NY.

DALLAS 11 over Washington. PICK: COWBOYS. I see no reason to believe that the Cowboys and Tony Romo will slack off this week at home--especially vs the Redskins' turtle-like offense.

St. Louis 3 over SAN FRANCISCO. PICK: RAMS. This is a tough one; both teams with bad seasons, both bad against the spread all year, and Niners at home. But Bulger and Stephen Jackson are bad. And the Niners have looked SO bad.

SEATTLE 5 over Chicago. PICK: SEAHAWKS. It's simple--with both Alexander and Benson dinged, it will come down to Grossman vs Hasselbeck. Is anyone a Grossman believer--on the road, no less????

New England 15.5 over BUFFALO. PICK: PATRIOTS. I respect Buffalo, but how can you pick against the Pats? The only thing that kept the Bills in it vs the Cowboys was Romo's INTs--I don't see that happening here.

DENVER 2 over Tennessee. PICK: TITANS. They've won on the road before. I'm still not a Cutler believer. Vince Young is due for a good game. LenDale White can exploit the Broncos' run-D weakness.