Sunday, September 9, 2007

NFL Predictions: week 1

I'm going to predict the games against the spread, which is hard---but let's see how I do.
We'll start with tonight's late game, then Monday's games:

Dallas, at home, favored by 6 over the Giants. Pick: Dallas. The Giants' running game is shaky, bad news on the road vs Dallas' pass rush.

Baltimore favored by 2.5 over Cincinnati (home). Pick: Cincinnati. Not a diss on the Ravens, I just have a feeling Carson Palmer et al come up big at home.

San Francisco (home) 3 over Arizona. Pick: San Fran. When's the last time Arizona came up big on the road? And they're still breaking in a new coach.

Today's games:

Denver 3 over Buffalo (home); Pick: Buffalo. I'm not yet sold on Jay Cutler, on the road especially.

Pittsburgh 5 over Cleveland (home). Pick: Pittsburgh. Cleveland with too many holes; Brady Quinn to start sooner rather than later for the Browns.

Philadelphia 3 over Green Bay (home). Pick: Philly. Donovan McNabb has looked very good in pre-season; the Pack with too much youth.

St. Louis (home) 2 over Carolina. Pick: St. Louis. Marc Bulger should get more media love; he's developing into an outstanding QB.

Minnesota (home) 3 over Atlanta. Pick: Minnesota. Just too many distractions for the Falcons, and on the road.

New England 6 over NY Jets (home). Pick: Jets. Not to win--I think the Pats will squeak this one out, but in a close one. 6 pts is a lot to give the Pats for a divisional game on the road.

Miami 3 over Washington (home). Pick: Miami. Though this is a tough one. But give the nod to Miami's defense over the nicked-up Jason Campbell.

Jacksonville (home) 7.5 over Tennessee. Pick: Tennessee. Again, not to win--I suspect Jax will win this one in the end. But 7 and 1/2 is a lot of points; Tennessee and Vince Young to cover.

Kansas City 3 over Houston (home). Pick: Houston. Easily. Matt Schaub and the Texans to shine big at home.

Oakland (home) 3 over Detroit. Pick: Detroit. I'll probably regret it. But I'm going with Jon Kitna to generate enough points out of Mike Martz's passing game to pull the Lions through.

San Diego (home) 6.5 over Chicago. Pick: San Diego. Can't go against the loaded Chargers, from the stronger conference, at home in week 1.

Seattle (home) 6 over Tampa Bay. Pick: Seattle. Seahawks always tough at home, Shaun Alexander is healthy, and the Bucs with multiple question marks.