I was 10-6 last week; I'm 97-87-5 for the year. Let's keep it going!
CHICAGO 4.5 over Jacksonville. PICK: BEARS. Did you see the Jags on Monday night? They look very much in disarray; not only is their offensive line still in flux, their running game inconsistent, but they have few wide receivers who pose a downfield threat. Meanwhile, the Bears are at home and still have a lot to play for.
Minnesota 7 over DETROIT. PICK: VIKINGS. The Thanksgiving Day game showed not only that the Lions can't stop the run, but why--their defense has no discipline. Any misdirection fools them. And the Vikings have Adrian Peterson, who doesn't need the threat of misdirection, but who certainly provides plenty of opportunities for it. This should be another laugher.
GREEN BAY 6 over Houston. PICK: PACKERS. The Pack has suffered a couple of tough losses lately, and their playoff hopes have dimmed. But they still have something to play for, and they and Aaron Rodgers can still move the ball and are used to the cold conditions. The Texans are improved, but they're still not a good road team, and don't forget Schaub is coming off an injury.
TENNESSEE 9.5 over Cleveland. PICK: TITANS. They're back on track again. Meanwhile the Browns have to go with their 3rd string QB, with both Anderson and Quinn out of the year. Not a good thing, given that the Titans' defense is one of the best in the league.
INDIANAPOLIS 13.5 over Cincinnati. PICK: BENGALS. The Colts will win; but they just don't quite have the explosiveness they used to have; and look for the Bengals to do what the Browns did--drop 7 or 8 men into coverage, force Indy to go the long way in order to score, and thus keep the game closer than 13 pts. The Colts only one time this year have covered a big point spread.
Atlanta EVEN at New Orleans. PICK: FALCONS. The Saints will be without Deuce McAllister. And you have to love teams that don't turn it over much, have a decent defense, and can run the ball--and all those describe this year's Falcons. I love Drew Brees, but he doesn't have Michael Turner on his team. Go with the Birds (and don't forget they just got done winning a tough road game in San Diego).
NY GIANTS 9 over Philadelphia. PICK: EAGLES. Not to win; I like the Giants to win this one, but only by a TD or less. I liked the way Philly and Donovan McNabb played last week--loose, but with passion and aggressiveness. They put 31 up on the Giants at home; I think they can score enough to keep this one close, but I think the Giants' and Eli Manning's efficiency in executing their offense in the end will win the day for the G-men.
DENVER 7.5 over Kansas City. PICK: BRONCOS. But who knows--with the schizophrenic Broncos, you don't know from week to week what you'll get. How can a team get stomped at home by the lowly Raiders, then go on the road and beat up the Jets? But the Broncos did it. I've got to think Coach Shanahan, whom everyone in the league respects, will have his team ready at home this time.
Miami EVEN at BUFFALO. PICK: DOLPHINS. The Bills have QB issues--Trent Edwards is dinged, the team doesn't seem to have much confidence in J.P. Losman, and last week's inexplicable home loss to the Niners showed it. The Dolphins meanwhile are much improved over last year.
NY Jets 8 over SAN FRANCISCO. PICK: JETS. Yes, the Niners won last week, but only put up 10 points. Their defense has been vulnerable to a QB with experience and given time in the pocket--see for example what McNabb or Tony Romo have done to the Niners. I think Brett Favre will do it too, this week. And the Jets have a lot to play for.
New England 8.5 over SEATTLE. PICK: PATRIOTS. Matt Hasselbeck obviously is playing hurt, and the Seahawks turn the ball over too much and have a leaky secondary. Bill Belichick will exploit those weaknesses.
ARIZONA 14 over St. Louis. PICK: CARDINALS. Always remember, the Cardinals play much better at home. And St. Louis struggles to score. Look for Kurt Warner to get back into rhythm.
PITTSBURGH 1.5 over Dallas. PICK: STEELERS. The Cowboys' offensive line has been a surprising weakness this year (earlier, even the Arizona Cardinals pressured Romo). The Steelers meanwhile can pressure you with their front, and with their blitzes, which they love to use. This defense is tough; and the weather looks to be cold and icy on Sunday. I see the Cowboys in for a rough time.
BALTIMORE 6 over Washington. PICK: RAVENS. The Ravens defense is very solid; Joe Flacco continues to improve; and the Redskins...well, Jason Campbell can't seem to connect deep with his receivers, but then that's because play-action hasn't been too effective due to the "Skins diminished run game. And that goes back to Clinton Portis being banged up. Does anyone see this Washington offense pushing the Ray Lewis and the Ravens around? I didn't think so.
Tampa Bay EVEN at Carolina. PICK: PANTHERS. These are two evenly-matched teams; I just like the Panthers because they're at home, and because they just seem to know how to win (see last week at Green Bay).
