I was 7-6-1 last week; i am 60-52-4 for the year.
On to this week:
Arizona 3 over ST. LOUIS. PICK: CARDINALS. I know, Arizona hasn't done well on the road this year. But they almost beat a good Carolina team last week, and you feel like they're about to break through. And note this: Arizona has the 2nd best passing offense in the NFL so far this year. St. Louis meanwhile is only 25th best in the league at defending the pass.
Atlanta 3 over OAKLAND. PICK: FALCONS. Always tricky when you're dealing with Matt Ryan, the Falcons' rookie QB, on the road. But remember that the Raiders' JaMarcus Russell is basically a rookie, too. Ryan has shown poise. And note this: Atlanta has the 3rd best rushing offense in the NFL so far. The Raiders, meanwhile, are only 26th best in the league at defending the run.
BUFFALO 5.5 over NY Jets. PICK: BILLS. They've been very solid at home, with Trent Edwards playing with a lot of precision. I expect Edwards to have another good day--the Jets are only 23rd best in the league at defending the pass.
CHICAGO 12.5 over Detroit. PICK: BEARS. The Lions continue to play the only-OK Dan Orlovsky at QB, and they continue to make many, many mistakes. They'd love to get Rudi Johnson or Kevin Smith going; but the Bears are 6th best in the league at defending the run.
CLEVELAND 1.5 over Baltimore. PICK: BROWNS. The Browns have struggled, but I sense they're finding their way a bit, especially after last week's win at Jacksonville. The Ravens will try to pound the ball; but did you know that the Cleveland defense is 10th best in the league at stopping the run?
DENVER 3.5 over Miami. PICK: BRONCOS. Two teams that are hard to figure. But Denver is at home; they still have the 3rd best pass offense in the NFL, and Miami struggles against the pass, with a defense that ranks only 25th in the NFL at stopping it.
INDIANAPOLIS 6 over New England. PICK: PATRIOTS. Not to win; I like Indy to win this one in a close game--they're at home and getting healthy. But 6 points is too much to give here, given Indy's struggles.
Jacksonville 7.5 over Cincinnati. PICK: JAGUARS. Jacksonville is ranked only 22nd in the NFL vs the pass. Only problem is, Cincy, with their injuries at QB and other issues, can't run it well or pass it, ranking in the bottom 5 in the league in both categories. And they're ranked 28th in the league against the run--guess what: Jax, with Taylor and Jones-Drew, can run it. And will.
MINNESOTA 4.5 over Houston. PICK: TEXANS. Houston is running under the radar, but they're playing well and have won 3 in a row. The Vikings meanwhile haven't really found it yet. And note this--Minnesota is very good at stopping the run, but not so much vs the pass; and the Texans and Matt Schaub and now ranked 5th in the NFL in passing offense. Go with the Texans in an upset.
NY GIANTS 9 over Dallas. PICK: GIANTS. Brad Johnson just is no Tony Romo; without the vertical passing game, the Giants will stack the line and stuff the "Boys.
Philadelphia 6.5 over SEATTLE. PICK: EAGLES. McNabb is healthy, Brian Westbrook is getting healthy; and despite being on the road, you sense that the Eagles will find a way to win this one by a TD or more. Note: Philly and McNabb are 8th in the NFL in pass offense; Seattle is only 30th best in the league at stopping the pass.
Tampa Bay 8.5 over KANSAS CITY. PICK: BUCS. That's a lot of points, and with a team like Tampa, which doesn't always score a lot, it's worrying. But, you have to think that Jon Gruden will have his team ready here, given they lost last week; and the Bucs can run the ball--they're ranked 9th in the league in rushing, while KC can't stop it--they're last in the league at defending the run.
TENNESSEE 5.5 over Green Bay. PICK: TITANS. You worry that Tennessee will have a letdown here, after their big Monday night win over Indy. But they've been awfully consistent. And when the Titans do well, they run it--they're 4th in the league in rushing. Meanwhile the Pack has a hard time sacking runners--they rank only 25th in the league at stopping the run. I gotta go with the Titans at home.
WASHINGTON 2 over Pittsburgh. PICK: STEELERS. This game is tough to pick--both teams will want to run it, but both teams are ranked in the top 5 in the league at stopping the run. But remember Pittsburgh's win at Jacksonville a few weeks ago? It was hard to see how they did it, but Big Ben found a way. I have a feeling he'll find a way this time too.
