Last week--another winning week, going 9-7.
For the season, I am 115-101-5.
Indianapolis 7 over JACKSONVILLE. PICK: JAGUARS. Not to win, but to keep it close. The Colts really haven't blown anyone out on the road for a good while, and the Jags have a history of playing the Colts tough.
DALLAS 3 over Baltimore. PICK: COWBOYS. Mainly because Dallas' defense is playing real well right now; look for them to shut down the Ravens and Joe Flacco. Tony Romo meanwhile will generate just enough offense to win comfortably; I wouldn't be surprised if the score of this game is similar to the Cowboys-Giants score of last week.
CLEVELAND 1 over Cincinnati. PICK: BENGALS. Because, in this battle of bottom-feeders and backup QBs. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bengals look a bit advanced over Ken Dorsey and the Browns.
New Orleans 6.5 over DETROIT. PICK: SAINTS. I just don't see the Lions' tissue-paper defense as being able to contain Drew Brees and the high-octane Saint attack. Don't forget too that Daunte Culpepper is out for Detroit.
Pittsburgh 5 over TENNESSEE. PICK: TITANS. I know Tennessee has injuries, especially on defense. But they're at home, they've still got a very tough defense they can put on the field, and their ball-control, conservative attack might just be more effective against the Steelers than people think.
Miami 6 over KANSAS CITY. PICK: CHIEFS. Not to win. But I can see the Chiefs keeping this one close. Miami's offense is competent but not explosive. And the Chiefs have been very competitive in a number of games this year. Look for this one to be decided only by a field goal.
San Francisco 4.5 over ST. LOUIS. PICK: 49ERS. Because Mike Singletary seems to be building something there--the Niners seem to have momentum and to be playing well on defense.
NEW ENGLAND 4 over Arizona. PICK: PATRIOTS. Remember--for the most part, Arizona just hasn't been a good road team, especially against quality opposition.
TAMPA BAY 3.5 over San Diego. PICK: BUCCANEERS. That Buc defense really seems to rise up at home. And the Bucs need this win, they should have plenty of motivation. Meanwhile, the Chargers have been especially inconsistent on the road, with last week being another good example--they had to rally in the last 2 minutes to beat the lowly Chiefs.
NY Jets 2.5 over SEATTLE. PICK: JETS. The Seahawks can be tough at home, but they haven't beaten a quality opponent yet this year, really. Brett Favre will find a way this time.
Houston 5 over OAKLAND. PICK: TEXANS. The Texans are rising, and are coming off a big road win at Green Bay. They have momentum. The Raiders seem stuck where they've been for a while now.
Denver 2.5 over BUFFALO. PICK: BRONCOS. It's always a risk picking the schizo-Broncos. But the Bills are fading and, with QB injury issues, can't score. The Broncos should get the job done at home.
Philadelphia 5.5 over WASHINGTON. PICK: EAGLES. They're on a roll; have you seen Donovan McNabb lately? He's moving well, throwing well. Meanwhile the Redskins have faded badly; their offense especially seems stuck in the mud. Look for it to get deeper.
MINNESOTA 2 over Atlanta. PICK: VIKINGS. Mainly I think the home-dome advantage will spell the difference for Adrian Peterson and the Vikes. That crowd revs up the Vikings' D and makes it hard for an opposing offense to hear.
Carolina 2.5 over NY GIANTS. PICK: GIANTS. I just think the Giants will suck it up and get back to playing their brand of football at home, in a big game.
CHICAGO 7 over Green Bay. PICK: PACKERS. This is a rivalry game, a division game. Aaron Rodgers can still throw and move the team, even the Packers haven't won lately. I look for this to be a close game, for the Bears to perhaps pull this one out at the end...but 7 points is too much to give here.
