So today's big prizes for the Democrats today are: Washington, Nebraska, Louisiana, and the Virgin Islands. My prediction: Obama wins the popular vote in all of these today, and comes out with the majority of delegates. It will be an Obama sweep.
The conventional wisdom seems to be leaning this way as well. But I disagree with the CW somewhat. I don't think Obama will win merely because demographics break well for him in these states (large African-American populations in Louisiana, many college-educated and upper-income folks in Washington), nor do I think he should be favored because caucus states have tended to favor his money and organization. Rather, I think Super Tuesday proved something: that Obama now has a RECORD of success. He's proven that he and his campaign can get his likely voters out, and he's proven that they're motivated to get out and vote. This, along with the friendly territory offered by these states, makes him the favorite today. Remember--he won far more states on Super Tuesday than did Mrs. Clinton. I expect that trend to continue, even more so, today.
And here's something else to think about. Many spreading conventional wisdom these days suggest that neither Obama nor Clinton will have enough delegates to win by the time the primary season is over. That seems likely to be true. So, it will come down to the "super-delegates." That seems likely too. Many say Senator Clinton will have an advantage there, that her edge in super-delegates will put her over the top and give her the nomination, she being a powerful Clinton of course, and all of that giving her an edge with such establishment figures as super-delegates are and all. But you know what? I disagree. I think Obama will win more states than will Senator Clinton from here on out; we already saw that on Super Tuesday. He'll at least stay even with her in delegates; and in fact, by the time this is over, if you are to look at how many delegates Obama won from the South Carolina primary onward, my guess is that by June, Obama will have won more states and more delegates.
So, tell me something: do you really think it will be easy for the Democratic Party and its super-delegates to deny a black man, and a popular, charismatic one like Barack Obama at that, the party's nomination owing to the votes of unelected super-delegates? In the face of Obama having won all these primaries and caucuses? I wonder. If they do, the Democratic Party will risk a terrible fracturing of its party and the loss of a good chunk of African-American supporters.
