the Republicans: John McCain

So Mr. McCain won South Carolina (as I predicted--the only prediction I got right yesterday).
But I note that exit polls show that, while he did well among veterans and independents, he didn't win among Republicans and conservatives. In fact, he has yet to win among those voters.

That will eventually come to haunt him. In Florida, it's a closed primary--only Republicans can vote in it. Mr. McCain has NOT united conservatives around his candidacy--not by a long shot. One small but illustrative example of this is George Will's anti-McCain column in today's Washington Post--read the whole thing.
This thing is far from over.

By the way, John McCain backers shouldn't get too excited

As the wise political analyst Michael Barone points out:

"...[McCain's] 2008 percentage in New Hampshire (37 percent) was visibly lower than his 2000 percentage there (48, against fewer serious candidates)." He still has a long way to go. Conservatives do not like McCain-Feingold, for example (the campaign finance reform bill); how will McCain get past that?

McCain won't quit...

...and remember the other day? I predicted he wouldn't...here's confirmation via NR's The Corner.

Whither the McCain campaign?

The political world is abuzz today over the resignations of two top staffers to the presidential candidacy of Senator John McCain; some details here. This, on top of the Arizona senator's relatively poor fundraising numbers and other staff layoffs announced recently, has some wondering if McCain is about to quit the campaign.

My prediction: don't bet on it. Remember the McCain temperament and personality. He's feisty, he's stubborn, he loves to go for broke and to do exactly what conventional wisdom would tell him not to do. At times, this has led him in my opinion into some unwise moves; it was stupid, not to mention suicidal, for him in 2000 to basically wage a frontal assault against religious conservatives; and this year's immigration bill didn't deserve McCain's stubborn support. Now, however, being down in the polls and already pronounced dead by some pundits, McCain will think he's got this situation right where he wants it. With nothing to lose, he can shoot from the hip and do whatever he wants; the revival of the Straight Talk Express, etc etc etc. You can hear it now. So he won't quit.

But he won't become the GOP nominee, either.