On the umpteenth Republican debate

This seems like a representative media view of how last night's GOP YouTube debate went.
Many in the media like Mike Huckabee (but what will happen when the conservative base finds out more about him?).
They like the McCain-as-underdog-who's-"found his voice" theme.
They don't like Giuliani and Romney so much, and indeed last night's sniping between them didn't seem to illuminate much.
Ron Paul has zealous support and sounds the traditional, pure libertarian clarion call well.
But on foreign policy and Iraq specifically, sorry, Mr. Paul, but Senator McCain is right--you're a pseudo-isolationist. That'll never play.
In any case, there's probably been too many debates.
The race is as wide-open as I can ever remember.

Meanwhile, the Republican presidential race is in flux

This poll suggests that maybe Huckabee now leads in Iowa.
On the other hand, Rudy is up pretty big in Florida.
While in South Carolina, the leader is "undecided."
Big Republican YouTube debate tonight in Florida. We'll see what happens.

Yet another GOP debate

A good summary here of last night's festivities in Orlando. I didn't see it, as I was on a trip. I don't get the feeling any candidate broke new ground. I do get the feeling that the differences between them, and the conservative principles that most of them share, are clear. All seem to be enunciating their stands and principles quite well. (They should be, by now!)

An analysis roundup: Dan Balz of the Washington Post suggests that McCain is still alive and kicking.

Stop it already, Mr. Romney

So John McCain criticizes Mitt Romney. Well, naturally the Romney campaign won't like it and will fire back. Fine. But how on earth can Romneyites say the following with a straight face?
Quote: "It's truly unfortunate that at an event designed to bring the Republican party together, Senator McCain chose, instead, to break Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment in an attempt to divide us," said Craig Stevens, Romney's press secretary in New Hampshire."

This, after the Romney campaign spent days attacking Rudy Giuliani over tax and spending policy. Unbelievable. From the same article: "The campaign of former Mayor Rudy Giuliani entered the fray on Romney's comments as well, calling them "one of those moments where you sit back and just say 'huh?'"

Indeed.

Keeping an open mind

Gary Bauer urges such for Christian conservatives regarding the candidacy of former Senator Fred Thompson: "I hope pro-family, pro-life Christians will continue to keep an open mind about Senator Thompson's candidacy, even as we work with him to strengthen his stand on some key issues," Mr. Bauer wrote in an e-mail addressed to supporters. "A Thompson vs. Hillary [Clinton] race would be an easy call for me to make."

He should make the same call regarding Rudy Giuliani.
A Giuliani-Clinton race should be an easy call, too.

Dissatisfied with the GOP field?

Then read this:

Feelings are very mixed about the field. Republicans are depressed — there doesn't seem to be a candidate with the right mix of ideas and positions and character.
And it was ever thus. Democrats hated their field in 2004. Many Republicans and conservatives were uncomfortable with George W. Bush through 1999 and enough of them were sufficiently disenchanted to give John McCain a serious look. Think about the Democrats in 1992, longing for the late entry of Mario Cuomo to save them. In 1987, George Bush the Elder didn't look tough enough, and had to face down Pat Robertson and Bob Dole. In 1980 it was far from certain that the GOP would coalesce around Reagan.
The point is that there never is a candidacy that breeds joyous enthusiasm. Politicians are flawed beings. The ones who speak well often seem false. The ones who are substantive bore. The ones who are tough enough for the job seem too mean. The ones who are likable enough seem too soft. Both parties and all ideological camps express the same reservations, regrets and anxieties. Always. And then they fall in love — or they try to, desperately, like a bride in an arranged marriage.

Where the GOP presidential race stands

There's certainly been no dramatic erosion of support for Giuliani, as some have claimed.
Quote: "The real story, post Labor Day, has been the solid pop for Fred Thompson following his formal announcement last week, the resurgence of John McCain, the small but steady improvement for Mike Huckabee, the lack of any national follow-through for Mitt Romney following his bounce after the Iowa straw poll and the continued stability of support for the GOP front-runner Rudy Giuliani."

Fears about Fred

So Fred Thompson is in the presidential race. But not all Republicans and conservatives favor him. Here's a troubling analysis of his social conservatism. Quote: "Remember Fred on CNN in August? Would Fred as president actively support a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage? A simple question. A clear question. See Fred on videotape promise, "Yes."
Fred is not a flip-flopper. He doesn't talk out of both sides of his mouth. Like him or hate him, Fred lets you know where he stands. Right?... Does Fred support the Marriage Protection Amendment or doesn't he? The amendment a majority of GOP senators supported in 2006? The one that's simple first sentence reads: "Marriage in the United States shall consist only of the union of a man and a woman"? No one can tell. So Team Thompson tidies up the mess to National Review online: "Fred Thompson does not support a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage." "If necessary," though, Team Thompson says he might support some other constitutional amendment that has the word "marriage" in it. Oh dear. Fred's "yes" to Anderson Cooper actually meant "no." Was Fred confused by the question? Or was he trying to confuse us?"

A bit troubling. Conservatives and the American people want a straight shooter in this election. There seems no doubt of that. Is former Senator Thompson the one? Stay tuned.

Fred is coming

Former Senator Fred Thompson will formally announce his candidacy for the presidency on September 6th.
Up to now, Thompson's strategy has worked well. Everyb0dy knows he's going to run. He's gained support and attention. Without really campaigning, most polls show him in 2nd place now among Republicans nationally, behind Rudy Giuliani. Not being an official candidate has shielded him from being a focus of attacks from the other candidates.

But now comes the hard part. Once he announces, the other campaigns' gloves will come off. And Thompson will have to make it clear exactly what his candidacy is about, exactly for what he stands. Right now, that remains a bit murky. It can't continue that way, or his campaign will drop like a stone. But it's good he's running; he's obviously a worthy individual with potentially serious ideas. Principled conservatives should welcome him to the race...and then scrutinize his ideas most carefully.

News of the day on the GOP race

Mike Huckabee has indeed gathered some momentum from his 2nd place finish in the Iowa straw poll---see for example the Washington Post, where D.C. politics insider David Broder is touting his chances in his latest column. Broder suggests Huckabee's populism leavened with social conservatism could help him pull a surprise in the New Hampshire primary, a la Pat Buchanan in '92 and '96. We'll see. Meanwhile, Fred Thompson shook hands in Iowa, amid more media fretting about his delayed official entry into the race. Actually, it seems clear that Thompson's gamble of waiting to announce his entry into the race has paid off. He's still high in the polls; and meanwhile waiting these extra months has shielded him from criticism. Now, does he lack the organization to ultimately win? And, more importantly, once he does announce and has to be out there making speeches and facing the press every single day on the campaign trail, what will happen to him momentum? I wonder. But I'm glad he's in the race; the more solid, good candidates with ideas, the merrier.

Stuck on straw polls

So the big political news over the weekend was the Republican presidential straw poll, occurring in Ames, Iowa. Good grief--such an event shouldn't mean a darn thing. It's one city, in one state, a "preference" poll months out from the first ballot that means anything being cast, easily manipulated by any candidate with money---candidates can bus in supporters and further buy their votes with barbecue and corn on the cob.

But in fact they do have meaning. Tommy Thompson, former Republican governor of Wisconsin, whose campaign, let's face it, never went anywhere, finished 6th in the straw poll (he'd said he had to come in first). So he has dropped out of the race. So, yes, i guess the straw poll means something, if candidates drop out based on how they do in it. Mitt Romney won the straw poll. That was expected; he had money and resources to throw into it. But because it was "expected", it won't mean much. Note that nationally, the latest Gallup Poll only has Romney at 9%. Perhaps the biggest winner in Ames was, sure enough, Mike Huckabee, who exceeded expectations and came in 2nd. Good roundup and further links here. But, prediction: in a month, no one will remember much of any of this..