Fundamentals and Falsehoods

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-08-05T07:46:00.000-07:00

POLITICS DEPT:
More news the Obama administration won't like:
"The number of Americans filing for initial unemployment insurance jumped last week to the highest level in 3 months, the government said Thursday. There were 479,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ended July 31, up 19,000 from a upwardly revised 460,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said. The weekly figure is the highest since the week ended April 10, when 480,000 initial claims were filed."

BASEBALL DIARY:
White Sox 4, Tigers 1: the Tigers still aren't hitting, still have injuries...and the season begins to drain away.
Rangers 11, Mariners 6: the Rangers have an owner, finally. And they have a win, with the big news being they got some big home runs and finally scored some runs. That needs to continue.

Wednesday's wash

2010-08-04T08:48:00.000-07:00

POLITICS DEPT:
Michael Barone has an interesting point today--perhaps this election year won't be 1994 redux (huge GOP gains), nor 1982 (when the party out of power won, but didn't win big). Maybe instead it will be like 1966, when there was reaction against the growth of government (thanks to LBJ's Great Society) and a war was making people uneasy (Vietnam).

Makes sense--now people are reacting, not against the Great Society, but against ObamaCare and Afghanistan (rather than Vietnam). And it was still a huge Republican win...

Polling watch--
In the Connecticut senate race, likely Republican candidate Linda McMahoh when last seen was trailing by some 20 points. But today a poll is out showing her down by only 10.
She has baggage, because she used to be involved in world wrestling, etc etc etc. But I'm sensing this one's not over.

In Nevada, Sharron Angle remains in pretty much a dead heat in the senate race there with the tiresome Harry Reid. Yes, Reid seems to lead slightly. But he remains under 50%, his tiny lead comes after a barrage of negativity against Angle, and so...usually incumbents in that kind of situation remain in big trouble. I'll predict it right now: in November, Sharron Angle will win this race.

Meanwhile, take note of businessman Rick Snyder's win in yesterday's Michigan Republican gubernatorial primary. Snyder has never held political office; he focused relentlessly on the economy, and he beat out several other established Wolverine state GOP pols. Lesson? More evidence that it's good this year to be an outsider.

Over 1 million people voted in the Michigan GOP primary; only 525,000 in the Democratic primary. Michigan is ready to go Republican, and I predict it will.

Meanwhile, Democrats told us endlessly how ObamaCare would gain popularity as time went on. Ummm...no, according to a Fox News Poll:
"Just 15 percent of voters like the new health care law and think it should be implemented as is. Most don't like the law in its current form: 42 percent think it needs to be changed, and another 36 percent would repeal it all together."

BASEBALL DIARY:
The Tigers split a doubleheader with the White Sox yesterday.But, given that Detroit is 7 games out now, that's not going to get much done.

Mariners 3, Rangers 2: a disappointing loss for the Rangers in Seattle. The Mariners just got done losing 7 games in a row. Colby Lewis pitched well for the Rantgers; and really, as long as they continue to pitch well, they should be fine. But they're not hitting right now; Texas has scored just 3 runs in their last 2 games.

Tuesday's trackings

2010-08-03T08:25:00.000-07:00

POLITICS DEPT:
Polling news--
President Obama's poll numbers continue to fall:
"Only 41% of those surveyed Tuesday through Sunday approved of the way Obama is handling his job, his lowest rating in the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll since he took office in January 2009. In Gallup's separate daily tracking poll, his approval was at 45% Monday."

Here surely is one of the reasons for those falling numbers:
"Talk about the new normal. Americans are shopping less, saving more, working harder without getting paid more — if they even have a job — and not even thinking about buying homes. A government report Tuesday offered more evidence that the recovery is being stalled by sluggish consumer spending. Personal spending was unchanged in June, reflecting a third straight month of lackluster consumer demand. Incomes were also flat, the weakest showing in nine months. The disappointing Commerce Department report on spending and income was among a raft of data released Tuesday that confirmed the economy ended the April-to-June quarter on a weak note."

Nor is this helping, as President Obama's party gets lots of negative publicity from its ethically-challenged members:
"A House panel announced Monday that Rep. Maxine Waters has been charged with violating ethics rules, setting the stage for a second election-season trial for a longtime Democratic lawmaker and adding to the party's political woes. The charges against Waters, a 10-term California congresswoman, focus on whether she broke the rules in requesting federal help for a bank where her husband was a board member and owned stock. She immediately denied the charges. The House ethics committee's announcement comes just days after it outlined 13 charges against Rep. Charles Rangel, D-N.Y., including failing to disclose assets and income, delayed payment of federal taxes and improper use of a subsidized New York apartment for his campaign office."

Monday's musings

2010-08-02T08:51:00.000-07:00

POLITICS DEPT:
That's unfair! Dept---
An anti-abortion protester gets arrested in Chicago for supposedly protesting too close to another person---but it was the other person who approached him:
"A Chicago man says he's fighting charges of disorderly conduct for simply standing on a public sidewalk and praying. Joseph Holland, a 25-year-old graduate student at Northwestern University, says he was standing still praying the rosary outside a Planned Parenthood facility in downtown Chicago July 3 when police arrested him for violating the city's new "Bubble Zone" ordinance. The law, passed in October, states that a person cannot approach within 8 feet of another person without consent "for the purpose of passing a leaflet or handbill to, displaying a sign to, or engaging in oral protest, education or counseling" within 50 feet from any health care facility...."I was just standing by the building praying the rosary and one of the Planned Parenthood volunteers came up to me and started yelling at me that I needed to move 8 feet away, but the thing is I didn't actually approach anyone; I was just standing by the building and the building doesn't actually have a bubble," Holland told FoxNews.com."

Something tells me Mr. Holland has a good chance to win this one.

Meanwhile, this can't give the Obama administration good vibes:

"Georgia's most prominent Democrat will be nowhere near Barack Obama when the president comes to Atlanta on Monday. Former Gov. Roy Barnes' campaign said it was simply a matter of conflicting schedules as Barnes tries to catch the attention of voters more than 100 miles away in southern Georgia and ultimately win his old job back."

Yes, right, I'm sure that's all it is. You ever see a candidate for office unable to adjust his schedule to get a photo op with a popular president???
Always watch candidates for office and what they do--they know the polls better than anyone.

Other polling news:
Democratic congressman Heath Shuler of North Carolina appears to be in some trouble. He's only at 45% and leads his opponent by just 1 point.

In Kentucky, Rand Paul still leads by a solid 8 points in the senate race there.

In Wisconsin, Democratic Senator Russ Feingold remains in trouble. He trails his challenger by 2 points.

In the Pennsylvania senate race, Republican Pat Toomey retains a nice lead over Joe Sestak.

So there's plenty of good news for Republicans and conservatives. Only bad news: I'd like to see Marco Rubio doing better in the Florida senate race with Charlie Crist.

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-07-29T07:59:00.000-07:00

POLITICS DEPT:
Here's a good analysis by Michael Barone explaining just why Democrats might be in trouble in 2010:
"Polls in House races almost always show incumbents ahead of challengers, because incumbent members of Congress are usually much better known than their opponents. An incumbent running below 50 percent is considered potentially in trouble; an incumbent running behind a challenger is considered in deep doo-doo. In 1994, I wrote an article in U.S. News & World Report arguing that there was a serious chance that Republicans could capture the 40 seats that they needed then, as now, for a majority in the House. It was the first mainstream media piece suggesting that, and it appeared on the newsstands on July 11. I cited as evidence five polls showing incumbent Democratic congressmen trailing Republican challengers. None of those Democrats had scandal problems; all five lost in November. Today, a lot more Democratic incumbents seem to be trailing Republican challengers in polls. Jim Geraghty of National Review Online has compiled a list of 13 Democratic incumbents trailing in polls released over the last seven weeks. They're from all over the country: one each from Arizona, Arkansas, Illinois, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota; two from Virginia; three from Pennsylvania. Most if not all of these incumbents are personally attractive, hardworking and ethically unsullied."

BASEBALL DIARY:
Rays 7, Tigers 4: Tampa Bay is a very good club, they're at home, and the injured Tigers just keep...finding ways to lose.
A's 3, Rangers 1: on this one, just tip your hat to A's starter Trevor Cahill; he has 10 wins now, and held the potent Rangers to just 2 hits.

Wednesday's wash

2010-07-28T08:18:00.000-07:00

POLITICS DEPT:
A columnist today asks an interesting question: every poll shows that the American people don't have confidence that our economy will improve, nor do they trust Congress or the president. But why not? An idea:
"To do the task justice would require at least as many pages as some of the bills Congress passes, but that itself is a place to start -- mention of a debt-stimulating stimulus bill over 1,000 pages long, of a topsy-turvy health-care remake over 2,000 pages long and of a recent financial-regulation mishmash also over 2,000 pages long....Members of Congress maybe have some study-guide notion of what's in these bills, but no grasp of all the possible catastrophes hidden in multiple unread clauses. Passing them is therefore akin to the blindfolded racing of a bus down a busy highway. The public -- the passengers -- knows even less, of course, and has to guess at what might happen to it. At least some of the devilish details do emerge in time, and so you learn that even if an $862 billion stimulus was defensible in theory, the political handouts got out of hand, virtually ensuring any assault on the recession would be feathery at best."

So bills that are passed don't do what they say they will do. Sometimes they do just the opposite. That leads to cynicism, and as someone who does a lot of teaching, I can tell you--cynicism among young people concerning government is as high today as its ever been. The election of President Obama hasn't changed it. Nor is this cynicism new. It's been around since Vietnam, when our leaders lied to us about various aspects of that war. It's been around since Watergate. but now it's worse. And again, despite all the high hopes of 2008...President Obama hasn't changed it. At all.

It just so happens that victor Davis Hanson of NRO spoke to this question too on this day, and adds:
"...the voters in 2008 did not vote for liberal change, but for change from the costly and lengthy Bush wars, deficits, spending policies, and immigration proposals. Obama voters were also motivated by a desire to elect our first African-American president, fear over the September 2008 financial meltdown, a lackluster McCain campaign, and the strange perception that Obama was a centrist.

Since his election, Obama has outdone the average Bush deficits by a factor of four or five. His brief “stimulus” became the prelude to a gorge-the-beast reordering of American society. Meanwhile, after demagoguing as a candidate everything from Guantanamo to Iraq, Obama in office has kept in place almost every major security protocol that Bush had established. He has broken his promises to close Guantanamo, try Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in New York, and pull out of Iraq. This has meant alienating his shrinking base while being exposed as a hypocrite to suddenly wiser and less forgiving independents....after ramming through his health-care bill without either bipartisan support or public approval, Obama is polling badly on just about every hot-button issue. The electorate simply does not want cap-and-trade, amnesty, more deficits, and higher taxes. Rather, it prefers to produce more oil and gas, and more hydroelectric and nuclear power; it wants to follow the Arizona immigration model; it wants to cut spending; and it wants to balance the budget."

Obama and liberals simply misread the electorate; they misread the meaning of the 2008 election.

First Read defending the Obama admin--again:
This time Chuck Todd et al on MSNBC's "First Read" give the administration's side on the question of whether it is "overexposed":
"...today, Obama tapes his appearance on "The View." That appearance -- plus even his new video on Web MD explaining the health-care law and how to use HealthCare.Gov -- has once furthered a narrative that the president is overexposed. (If you'll recall, we had this same discussion last year after Obama went on Leno, etc.) There is a potential danger here, and it does highlight the fact that there really isn't another key spokesman in the administration to talk about the economy or health care. But as the White House reminds us, the media world is now so diffuse (TV, newspaper, Web, cable Twitter, Facebook) that Obama has to do more than his predecessors ever did. That's the reality. So while folks INSIDE THE BELTWAY believe he's over-exposed, and those folks that watch a lot of cable TV might believe he's overexposed, ask the working parent of two if they think the same thing."

Yes, sure guys, and there's nothing wrong with asking that question of a working parent of two...nor is it wrong to give the administration's side of things (though you might 'fess up once in a while and admit that's what you're doing).
But here's the thing: we can make a pretty good guess of what the working parent of two thinks of Obama, and guess whether he or she is a tiny bit sick of him. Know how? CHECK THE POLLS!!!! Obama's approval ratings have been sliding for months. That's usually not a sign that the White House's approach to communicating with the public is working too well. Is overexposure their only problem? I doubt it. But it could well be part of it. O, Chuck and friends, how could you not have thought of this???

BASEBALL DIARY:
Rays 3, Tigers 2: Justin Verlander pitches well. The Tigers must have thought they were in a good spot--9th inning, down by 1 run, but the bases loaded and Miguel Cabrera at the plate. But he hits a grounder on which the Rays' Evan Longoria turns a great double play...that's baseball.
Rangers 3, A's 1 (10 innings): again the story is Cliff Lee. 9 innings pitched, 13 strikeouts, 1 run allowed...and eating up innings, saving the bullpen. What an acquisition for this team, which right now has the best pitching it's had perhaps ever.

Tuesday's trackings

2010-07-27T07:48:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Rays 5, Tigers 0: all you need to know about this game is that the Tigers have been so depleted by injuries they had to start 4 rookies. And so they were no-hit last night; they simply had no shot. Matt Garza of the Rays, who threw the no-hitter, is very, very good, however; make no mistake about that. I'd forgotten that he was the MVP of the AL Championship series...

Some political news, none of it particularly good news for Democrats---
First, consumer confidence drops:
"Americans' confidence in the economy eroded further in July amid worries about a job market that has proven stubbornly stagnant. The report raised concerns about the overall economy and the back-to-school season."

There are also some cracks in President Obama's Hispanic support:"President Barack Obama's once solid support among Hispanics is showing a few cracks, a troubling sign for Democrats desperate to get this critical constituency excited about helping the party hold onto Congress this fall. Hispanics still overwhelmingly favor the Democratic Party over the GOP, and a majority still think Obama is doing a good job, according to an Associated Press-Univision poll of more than 1,500 Hispanics. But the survey, also sponsored by The Nielsen Company and Stanford University, shows Obama gets only lukewarm ratings on issues important to Hispanics — and that could bode poorly for the president and his party....For a group that supported Obama so heavily in 2008 and in his first year in office, only 43 percent of Hispanics surveyed said Obama is adequately addressing their needs, with the economy a major concern. Another 32 percent were on the fence, while 21 percent said he'd done a poor job."

Monday's musings

2010-07-26T07:34:00.000-07:00

POLITICS DEPT:
Polling news:
Arizona Republican Senate primary--sure looks to me like John McCain will survive the primary challenge from J.D. Hayworth.

Missouri U.S. Senate race--there, Republican Roy Blunt looks to be in decent shape.

Arizona immigration law: do you think that law remains popular in Arizona? Ever since Governor Jan Brewer signed it into law, she's zoomed to a 20 point lead in the polls in the governor's race.

As for the Republican campaign this fall, this is encouraging:
"In a reprise of a long-ago clash between Democratic presidential candidates, House Republicans contend that they can answer the mocking challenge “Where’s the beef?”
The GOP response: Create incentives for new jobs, cut federal spending and clean up Congress. Although the specifics remain a work in progress, Republican leaders are inching toward a substantive campaign agenda after a behind-the-scenes battle over how specific the policy proposals should be."

But the proof will be in the pudding. I note that Republicans are against, right now, a grand rollout of new ideas a la the Contract with America of 1994. I can see the desire not to be seen as copying from something done 16 years ago. But remember-the Contract was the right thing to do, and...it worked. Republicans need some kind of grand entrance for something, whether they call it a "contract" or something else. And it should signal real change in a conservative direction.

Hmmm...from Chuck Todd et al from MDNBC is their "First Thoughts" section:
"The AP runs this quote from Washington state Senate candidate Dino Rossi (R): "The idea of dragging home pork is an old-school measurement of a senator,’ said Republican Dino Rossi… ‘And right now, with Republicans and Democrats alike doing that, it's bankrupting America. There's nothing in the Constitution that says the job of a senator is bringing home pork." Rossi’ quote raises an important question: If a senator or member of Congress isn’t supposed to bring home the bacon, then what is his/her job? To simply cast votes? Sit at committee hearings? Wage ideological fights?"

Er--well, sure, Chuck and others, I'll be glad to take a crack at that one: yes, one of their jobs is indeed to "cast votes"---informed votes, which show a knowledge of the issues; votes about which the congressperson can then keep his or her district informed. And yes, wage "fights"--if the fight is an important one, over a crucial issue, if the fight is worth having. Many of us believed the "fight" over ObamaCare was a pretty important one, and yes, it involved "ideology", I guess, but that didn't make it bad or unnecessary. Let's ask you guys some questions: do you think most big fights in "congress" are "ideological fights"? Do you think ideological fights are necessarily bad? Do you really think the most important thing a congresscritter should do is "bring home the bacon", i.e. money and projects? If so, where does that end, and how will we ever slow down spending and/or reduce the national debt???

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 6, Blue Jays 5 (2nd game of DH): the Tigers had a tough weekend. They only split 4 games with Toronto; and lost key players to bad injuries. But rallying for 4 runs in the 8th inning to win the nightcap shows they do have some toughness. But all this bad luck makes it real tough to expect Detroit to continue to contend this year...
Rangers 6, Angels 4: but the Texas Rangers had a great weekend. They took 3 of 4 from the Angels, the team chasing them in the AL West. Starting pitcher Tommy Hunter has now won 8 starts and lost none. Josh Hamilton is hitting .357 with a lot of RBIs. The Rangers allowed only 6 runs to the Angels in their 3 victories...

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-07-22T08:42:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 4, Rangers 1: Detroit gets a much-needed win. The key for them was starter Max Scherzer, who held the Rangers to 1 run over 7 innings (though it took him over 120 pitches to do it). The Tigers will need a lot more games like this. The Rangers however end a 7 game road trip to Boston and Detroit with a strong 5-2 record...

POLITICS DEPT:
Hmmm...Roger Simon, a very cynical though canny political columnist and observer at The Politico, argues that Sarah Palin is actually doing much better than many people think:
"Today, Palin is going around the country endorsing and making speeches for Republican candidates with some success. Tuesday night in Georgia, former Secretary of State Karen Handel, who was endorsed by Palin, got 34 percent of the vote, while former U.S. Rep. Nathan Deal, endorsed by Newt Gingrich, got 23 percent of the vote."

That's very interesting evidence there. That's not the first candidate whom she's endorsed who has won. She does connect very well with the base of the GOP. Could she be a serious threat for the 2012 Republican nomination? I have to admit, thanks to the bashing in the media she'd taken, and to the clips from some of her interviews which, let's face it, didn't make her look so good, I doubted 2012 was in the cards (though I thought 2016 was still a possibility). But she's hung her hat on a few good issues, and done a brilliant job of keeping her name out there. We may need to re-think 2012...

Meanwhile, in Kentucky, Republican Rand Paul continues to lead in the senate race there by 8 points. That's significant--his libertarian leanings and his statements coming from that led him to take a tremendous bashing in the news media weeks ago, but he had an 8 points lead in the race about a month ago...and still does. Seems to me to be good news for him.

Wednesday's wash

2010-07-21T08:08:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Rangers 8, Tigers 0: the Rangers are clicking on all cylinders. The Tigers aren't. It's hard to understand what hits this team when the second half of the season comes. Meanwhile Ranger starter Tommy Hunter is 7-0 and pitching very well. Ranger pitching remains the key factor in this team's surge into first place in the AL West.

POLITICS DEPT:
By the way, you know that financial regulatory bill that President Obama will sign into law today?
It's over 2300 pages long. And liberals try to deny that government is excessively bureaucratic and full of red tape. Right...

As for Republicans in 2010--I agree with Victor Davis Hanson:
"Republicans will shortly need to stand for something more than just being against much of the Obama agenda. Only a superior and detailed alternative can win more lasting support than just a midterm correction. Obama, after all — with nationalized health care, amnesty, cap-and-trade, financial overhaul, government absorption of private enterprise, takeover of the student-loan industry, and gorge-the-beast deficits that will ensure a generation of higher taxes — at least seems to have some sort of plan to change America. The absurdity of $1.5 trillion annual deficits is easy to run on; but where in the budget should we freeze or cut spending? To restore fiscal sanity, we need details rather than vague promises to reduce red ink to a particular percentage of GDP. Is there to be an across-the-board spending freeze or targeted cuts? How much, if at all, does defense get cut? If it does, where and how?...at some point, blanket Obama-bashing without a comprehensive alternative will turn stale. Critics of Obama — if they are to be taken seriously — will have to be about more than not being Obama. Instead, conservatives must identify exactly how to undo the Obama agenda — and do so in a way that does not earn them the disdain that the Republican Congress earned between 2001 and 2006, and the Republican administration between 2005 and 2009. We need some notion of a contracted agenda, so that conservative voters can hold conservative politicians to account in this age of anti-incumbency. Voters wanted closed borders, balanced budgets, ethical members of Congress, and less government between 2001 and 2006. They believed that all of that had been promised — and then were sorely disappointed.
...In short, conservative voters want to see something specific — as much to keep their own honest as to defeat the other."

Read his whole piece.
And I'm convinced that more specificity will help Republicans, not hurt. Remember the Contract with America for 1994; it gave Republicans something to run on. They couldn't simply be called a party of no. Democrats are trying to use that argument against the GOP now. We can take that argument right away from them.

POLLING NEWS:
Some more good news for Republicans lately, in the meantime.
In Ohio, conservative challenger John Kasich leads incumbent Ted Strickland in the governor's race.
Don't forget how important Ohio is as a swing state.

Quinnipiac has Republicans leading on the 2010 generic ballot by 5 points.Kind of makes one wonder about that big lead Gallup gave Democrats the other day...
And it only gives President Obama a 44% approval rating.

A new poll in Nevada gives Harry Reid only a two point lead over Sharron Angle.

Tuesday's trackings

2010-07-20T07:08:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Rangers 8, Tigers 6 (14 innings): the season might be ending for the Tigers; a lot of bad luck coming their way. In this one, Brandon Inge broke a finger and will be out at least a month. For the Rangers, again to me the story is their bullpen, with Matt Harrison (among others) shutting the Tigers down for over 4 innings.

POLITICS DEPT:
Here's another reason why conservative Pat Toomey has a great shot to beat Joe Sestak for the US Senate--Sestak doesn't look like a very smart politician:
"After the U.S. Chamber of Commerce released an ad accusing Sestak of voting “100 percent” with Nancy Pelosi, Sestak howled that this was a lie. He voted with her 97 percent of the time. Hmmm....Representative Sestak displayed the same unwise litigiousness after a group called the Emergency Committee for Israel ran ads calling attention to his poor record on support for Israel. Sestak’s lawyers contacted Comcast and insisted that the ads be pulled. In so doing, he has invited closer examination of his record....It is false and “offensive,” Sestak’s lawyer argues, to say that the congressman “raised money for an anti-Israel organization that the FBI labeled a ‘front group for Hamas.’” Oh, did Sestak not deliver the keynote address at a fundraiser for the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR)? Well, yes he did, admits the lawyer, “but during a portion of the event explicitly free of fundraising.” Please. People paid $50 to attend the banquet and hear a speech by Congressman Joe Sestak. That he didn’t personally solicit funds is irrelevant."

Polling news--
In Arkansas, incumbent Democrat Blanche Lincoln trails her Republican opponent for the US Senate by no less than 30 points.

On the other hand, when it comes to the generic ballot, Gallup suddenly has Democrats out to a 6 point lead, while Rasmussen has REPUBLICANS up by 9. Wow! Who's right?

My guess is those are both outliers and that maybe the GOP leads by 1 point or so. But again, that's a huge piece of good news for Republicans, given the advantage the party will have in enthusiasm and intensity this year.

Monday's musings

2010-07-19T07:08:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Indians 7, Tigers 2: the lost weekend. The Tigers get swept 4 straight games by the lowly Indians. Two trends continue: one, that the Tigers can do little on the road. Two, that rookie pitcher Andy Oliver as a starter isn't working out. He's 0-4 and in this particular start what did him in was 5 walks.
Rangers 4, Red Sox 2: but things went much better for the Texas Rangers, as they won 3 of 4 over the weekend, including yesterday's game. Obviously the Red Sox have many injuries. But still, Ranger pitching has been solid all season including this past weekend, as they held Boston to run outputs of 2, 4, 3, and 2. C.J. Wilson yesterday struck out 10. The Rangers lead the AL West by 4 and 1/2 games.

POLITICS DEPT:
According to a new Rasmussen poll, conservative Republican Pat Toomey continues to look good in that Pennsylvania Senate race.

But one worries that Republicans aren't offering enough of an alternative vision to the Democrats in this sycle. More on that as the week progresses...

Friday's fish fry

2010-07-16T09:55:00.000-07:00

POLITICS DEPT:
President Obama's approval numbers continue to slide:
"Most Americans see little benefit from the federal government's economic stimulus plan, as President Obama's job performance rating drops overall, and hits a new low among Democrats. A Fox News poll released Thursday finds that 43 percent of voters approve of the job Obama's doing, matching a previous low in early April. Two weeks ago 47 percent approved, and a year ago 54 percent of voters approved. His highest approval thus far was 65 percent in January 2009. Some 48 percent of voters disapprove today, which also matches a previous high negative rating....The president's rating has been hurt by declines not only among independents, but also among his party faithful. The poll finds 76 percent of Democrats approve, which is the lowest positive rating he's received among this group. Two weeks ago 84 percent of Democrats approved. Obama's highest approval rating among Democrats was 93 percent a year ago May."

What interests me there are two things. First, it's remarkable how unpopular is not only Obama's health insurance plan, but also now the stimulus package. It's really quite stunning---both these things passed with great fanfare, both have been defended by Obama and Democrats over and over again publicly, both led the establishment news media to assure us that, inevitably, the American people would love them...and yet now, to both, the American people are saying, no thanks.

Many continue to argue that Obama's low approval numbers show that he and the members of his administration aren't good salesmen. But I think that the American people know very well what the stimulus and health reform plans were. They just don't approve of them.

Other polling news--
In the state of Washington, Democratic incumbent senator Patty Murray is still in trouble...vs well-known Republican Dino Rossi.

In Wisconsin, fellow incumbent Dem Russ Feingold might just be in trouble too.

The Fox News Poll has Republicans leading Democrats by 4 points in the 2010 generic ballot.

I suppose the only negative news today for Republicans is the new Las Vegas Review-Journal poll, showing Harry Reid leading Sharron Angle by 7 points in the senate race there. That poll may be accurate. I wonder, though. While Reid's numbers in the poll are consistent with other polling data, Angle's seem to be outliers...many polls have her at least in the mid-40s; this one only at 37%. Seems odd. We'll want to see what other polls say.

BASEBALL DIARY:
Rangers 7, Red Sox 2: the Rangers had a terrible pre-All-Star-break weekend, losing 4 straight to Baltimore. But they seemed re-energized last night. Key: starting pitcher Tommy Hunter, who's now 6-0 and, in general, throws strikes.

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-07-15T09:03:00.000-07:00

POLITICS DEPT:
So Politico today runs a long article on the mistakes, problems, trials and tribulations of the Obama presidency, focusing especially on why the Left is so disenchanted with the president. Much of it will not surprise. But I found this nugget interesting:
"In what would surprise media critics outside Washington, many reporters don’t much like Obama or his gang either. They accurately perceive the contempt with which they are held by his White House, an attitude that undoubtedly flows from the top. Insults and blustery non-responses, f-bombs flying, are common in how West Wing aides speak to reporters. In a transactional city like Washington, personal relations usually only matter at the margins. But in a poor political climate those margins can be important, and there’s no mistaking that across the capital there are many people who seem to be enjoying the president's travails, and cheering whenever he takes a cream pie to the face. As individuals, most of the people who work in this West Wing are plainly decent and hard-working folks, who say the modern media echo chamber leaves them no choice but to be aggressive. But collectively Obama has recruited a team with an uncommonly brash personality."

Translation: Obama and his team are arrogant. They think they know best. So get out of the way. They think they can run over people, that they should run over people. Happens to our liberal friends far too often...

Polling news:
So did you know that Harry Reid's son is also running for statewide office in Nevada? He is...for governor. Interestingly, his father's name is so toxic right now in Nevada that Mr. Reid doesn't use his last name in his campaign ads and such; instead he just uses his first name, Rory.

But it's not helping much--he trails by over 20 points.

Wednesday's wash

2010-07-14T08:34:00.000-07:00

POLITICS DEPT:
In polling news, here's some bad news for Republicans--Rubio still trails Crist in Florida, according to Reuters/Ipsos.

But overall, the news is good. Note for example that there is some good news--Rasmussen has Angle leading Harry Reid in Nevada.

And that ABC News/Washington Post poll of yesterday had Republicans, in the generic congressional ballot, with a pretty healthy 4 point lead (early ABC polls had had Democrats doing much better).

And meanwhile, polls continue to show that ObamaCare remains unpopular--usually only about 40% approving, while 50% or more disapprove.

Democrats aren't happy, and appear to be turning on each other. Just ask White House press secretary Robert Gibbs:
"Pelosi, irked since Sunday by what she and other top Democrats considered Gibbs' careless and dismissive comments that Democrats could lose their House majority this November, upbraided a top White House aide as she knocked Gibbs' unwelcome handicapping of House races. "How could he [Gibbs] know what's going on in our districts?" Pelosi said, according to Democrats who attended the meeting. "Some may weigh his words more closely than others. We have made our disagreements known to the White House."

Of course, the question how Gibbs could know what's going on in Democratic-leaning or other districts is simple. He can read polls...
And as Chuck Todd et al at MSNBC note:
"Here is where Pelosi and her allies are coming from: Some folks -- though definitely not your authors here at First Read -- are just waking up to the news that the House is in play after Gibbs’ statement, and that is spooking Dem donors. On the other hand, Pelosi blasting Gibbs only extends this story another day."

That's what happens to politicians when things start to look bad for them: they get hot, they get bothered, and they make tactical mistakes, as surely this leak from the Pelosi camp is...

Tuesday's trackings

2010-07-13T07:17:00.000-07:00

POLITICS DEPT:
President Obama's approval numbers continue to plummet, according to an ABC/Wash Post poll:
" Nearly 60 percent of American voters say they lack faith in President Barack Obama, according to a public opinion poll published on Tuesday. The results of the Washington Post/ABC News poll are a reversal of what voters said at the start of Obama's presidency 18 months ago when about 60 percent expressed confidence in his decision making."

His overall approval rating stands at just 43%. No need to overly fear him, Republicans...
Some in the reporting today harp on the fact that Obama still has higher numbers than congressional Democrats or Republicans. But, folks...right now, doesn't matter. In the 2010 elections, voters will have to choose, not between Obama and a Republican, but between a Democratic congressional/senate candidate and a Republican. And voters who are unhappy and want change aren't likely to vote for a representative of the party in power. There's plenty of time, meanwhile, for Republicans to get in better shape for 2012, when Obama will be on the ballot...

Meanwhile, even Democrats and liberals in the blogosphere admit that ordinary Dem voters just aren't getting enthused:
"...the White House and Democrats have been engaged in a full-blown effort for weeks now to persuade voters that the midterm elections could represent a return to GOP rule. The White House and Dems have made this case every which way: They've charged that Republicans will again rule as stooges of Big Oil and Wall Street. They've claimed that Republicans will rain a blizzard of subpoenas on the White House if they take control of Congress. They've framed the elections as a choice between the policies that got us into this mess and those that are getting us out of it. And so forth. Yet rank and file Dems don't appear to care that much. The latest polling shows that the "enthusiasm gap" remains the same, with Republicans far more excited about voting than Dems are. In other words, Dem scaremongering about the GOP takeover doesn't yet appear to be revving up Dems to turn out this fall."

There's certainly plenty of evidence that's the case.
In California, a state the Democrats have dominated in recent years, new polls (by SurveyUSA) show Republican Carly Fiorina leading Barbara Boxer in that state's senate race...
And Meg Whitman leads Democrat Jerry Brown in the governor's race.

Monday's musings

2010-07-12T09:02:00.000-07:00

POLITICS DEPT:
White House spin?:
Over the weekend, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs had something to say:
"White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs apparently made the biggest political news over the weekend, when he suggested on “Meet the Press” that Republicans could win back the House in the fall. “I think there's no doubt there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control… This will depend on strong campaigns by Democrats. And again, I think we've got to take the issues to them.” Gibbs, though, was just stating the obvious."

Yes, he was, Chuck Todd. But it's still interesting that he said it. Usually press secretaries don't suggest that much of anything good will happen to the other party. But Gibbs did. I say, be careful. Seems likely to me that Gibbs and the Obama White House could be trying to spin expectations--for the Republicans. Sell the idea that the GOP will take back the House. Of course, Republicans would have to win 39 seats to do it. Say they come up one seat short; they win 38 seats but the Democrats retain control. The White House could then try to sell it as a victory of sorts. Beware of the expectations game...

Meanwhile, in Maryland, yet another poll puts Republican challenger Robert Ehrlich ahead of incumbent Dem governor Martin O'Malley. Maryland is usually very much a Democrat-leaning state...

Friday's fish fry

2010-07-09T12:01:00.000-07:00

POLITICS DEPT:
Here's a significant window into the thinking of Democratic strategists in 2010:
"Of all the problems Democrats face this fall, none may be more challenging than trying to win back the support of independent voters. President Obama has been going backward with independents for more than a year, and the Democrats stand to suffer the effects in the November elections. The Gallup organization reported this week that just 38 percent of independents now approve of the job Obama is doing, the lowest point in his presidency and down from 56 percent a year ago. Top Democratic strategists are gloomy enough about the prospect of turning those voters around quickly that they believe the more important priority for the next four months is to maximize turnout among the new voters who backed Obama in 2008. Those new voters may be receptive to partisan appeals. Whether that will help with independents is another question."

Er, no, it's not merely "another question." Rather, it's an easy question to answer--and the answer is, no, they won't. The Democrats are largely giving up on independents in 2010. Republicans therefore have to continue to work hard and drive home their advantage with them--and win big this year.

Meanwhile, even polls affiliated with the Democrats show the Republicans leading the generic congressional ballot for 2010 (and by 6 points, no less).

The only thing one has to worry about with a poll like that is that perhaps Democrats seek to motivate their donors and their base by suggesting they trail in the polls more than they actually do.

SPORTS:
Of course the big story today is LeBron James, and his decision to leave Cleveland and go play with the Miami Heat.

And all in all, it's not a story that's left a good taste in my mouth. Did LeBron have the RIGHT to make his deal and go where he chose? Of course he did. That's the essence of liberty and within the NBA it's a right the players won through hard bargaining. I don't begrudge him that. And yes, Cleveland Cavs' owner Dan Gilbert made himself look like an angry, vengeful, half-crazy jilted lover with his roaring rage at LeBron's departure. But don't let that make LeBron into a sympathetic figure, folks:

1] I mean, did he HAVE to drag this "Decision" out, build up a false sense a drama, cook up a TV special on it, and thus rub Cleveland fans' nose in it? James has claimed since the decision to be a big believer in loyalty, but hey--he's from Ohio, fans there were loyal to him, but he's leaving.

2] He's leaving a place at which he had unfinished business. He played well for the Cavs and accomplished a lot there. But he promised to win a title, yet didn't. Can anyone imagine Michael Jordan bailing on Chicago without having won a title? LeBron claimed, in making his decision, that now he won't have the "pressure" of having to score 30 points a night, given that he's joining Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. Strange--neither Magic Johnson, or Larry Bird, or Michael Jordan ever complained or ran from such pressure. Isn't it a sign of a great player to embrace such pressure?

Most experts are stressing that the Miami Heat winning a championship this season is not a done deal. They're right; the Heat have only two other players under contract and won't have the money to do anything other than sign journeyman players at the NBA minimum. Meaning they won't have much bench help or a huge supporting cast. So Maybe LeBron and D-Wade and co. won't succeed.

How many of us would be sad to see that? I'm betting not too many. On the other hand, how many will be watching this season to see how the Heat perform? Quite a few--and in that sense, LeBron and David Stern and the entire NBA have succeeded beyond their wildest dreams...

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-07-08T09:45:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 4, Orioles 2: good for Tiger starter Max Scherzer; he's now won 4 straight starts. Going down to the minors a few weeks ago helped him. The Tigers are very comfortable at home; they've won 30 games and lost only 12 at home. That's the best home record in the AL. They'll need that comfort zone; the Twins come in starting Friday for a 3-game series...
Rangers 4, Indians 3: again, the key to this game was the Ranger bullpen, which pitched 3 shutdown innings , allowing only a walk and no hits, once the Rangers had rallied from a 3-1 deficit to take the lead.

POLITICS DEPT:
Polling news--
Some decent news for Republicans today.
In California, a Field poll has Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer leading Carly Fiorina by only 3 points. A close race this far out, with Boxer's numbers having tumbled for several months in a row now...all that points to this being yet another winnable race for the GOP.
In Florida, meanwhile, Rasmussen now has Marco Rubio with a slight lead over Charlie Crist in the senate race there. That race however remains obviously very tight. Remember this, however: the Rubio campaign really hasn't been running ads for a couple of months. They're saving their ammo until the fall. Perhaps numbers will move then.

Wednesday's wash

2010-07-07T10:43:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 7, Orioles 5: the keys to the game--Johnny Damon had the walk-off home run to win the game. He's only hitting .271 this season, but he's dangerous and an important weapon in the Tigers' lineup. Note too that the Detroit bullpen allowed only 1 earned run in over 3 innings of work. And Ryan Perry pitched well; he'd been sent down to Toledo some weeks ago for ineffectiveness, but perhaps he's finding it again.
Rangers 12, Indians 1: good to see the Rangers' offense get back in gear, led by the usual suspects--Hamilton, Guerrero, etc. C.J. Wilson gave the Rangers yet another quality pitching start.

POLITICS DEPT:
Polling news--
Gallup now has President Obama's approval rating only at 44%.

And that shouldn't surprise us--there's the oil still spilling, a slow economy, an unpopular health care measure, now a lawsuit against a popular Arizona anti-illegal-immigration law.

Some argue that the Arizona law will benefit Republicans now, but hurt them later with the growing number of Latino voters. I'm not so sure. I think more and more, the perception will grow...even among Latino voters!...that a secure border is a good thing; that people who want to come here should come here LEGALLY, and that legal immigration is a good thing. I don't buy the argument that just because a person is Latino, that therefore he or she will forever be OK with illegal immigration, and always remember that is what we are talking about here--ILLEGAL immigration, lawbreaking.

Tuesday's trackings

2010-07-05T10:21:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 12, Orioles 9: so the Tigers are home again, playing some of baseball's, er, lesser teams right now (the Mariners and Orioles), and have won 3 of 4. All good. Maybe Brandon Inge is getting hot; he had 4 RBIs yesterday, and Brennan Boesch didn't have a hit but walked 4 times--that shows he's not over-anxious, has a good eye, is willing to take a walk. Only bad news is that young Tigers' starter Andy Oliver got shelled, and you want to see Tiger starters get more consistent.
Indians 9, Rangers 3: the Rangers are slumping a bit; they've lost 5 of 7, and had a young, inexperienced pitcher going last night. Meanwhile the Indians have won 7 of 9. It all added up to a Rangers loss...

POLITICS DEPT:
In California, even MSNBC.com's "First Read" agrees that Republicans have a chance in the California gubernatorial race, given the missteps of Democrat Jerry Brown's campaign:
"Although Jerry Brown (D) is slightly leading Meg Whitman (R) in the race for California governor, according to polls, state Democrats are voicing their concerns that Brown’s campaign hasn’t been active enough in defending Whitman’s TV air assault. The Los Angeles Times: “The combination of Whitman's wealth and a distinct lack of energy by Brown is making California Democrats nervous about their candidate's prospects in the fall. ‘If you're going to run for governor, you have to do what it takes. You can't tell yourself or tell everyone else there is some special way for you to do this that is completely outside the norms that apply to everyone else,’ said Democratic strategist Garry South.” It's somewhat surprising that Brown is allowing himself to get out-maneuvered on the new media front and with this new news cycle given that Brown had been notable for being an early adapter for populist campaign tactics, like, for instance 800-numbers back during his '92 campaign when that was still "quaint" and intriguing. Brown's campaign today looks like a relic and is making it easier for Whitman to paint him as someone from the past."

Friday's fish fry

2010-07-02T10:45:00.000-07:00

POLITICS DEPT:
Not-so-good economic news for the Democrats:

"The U.S. economy created a modest 83,000 private sector jobs in June, adding to concern that the economic recovery is tepid at best and highlighting the political danger to President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats heading into a tightly contested midterm election cycle in which control of the House and perhaps the Senate are at stake. The unemployment rate ticked down slightly from 9.7 percent to 9.5 percent....The president, in comments after release of the figures, chose to highlight "the sixth-straight month of job growth in the private sector" and the nearly "600,000 jobs created this year," a "stark turnaround," he added, from the massive monthly losses during the recession."

It's tepid, and everyone knows it. This kind of stagnant growth reminds of how the economy was performing in 1994. And we all know how Republicans did that year.

And I'm amazed at the rather pathetic spin job President Obama tries to do here. 600,000 jobs? Really? He knows, and anyone paying any attention to politics and the economy knows, that over half of those jobs he touts are TEMPORARY jobs, created by the Census! They'll be gone before you know it. Our economic woes, it appears, won't.

So Republicans for now continue to be in decent shape.
In polling news, here's more evidence of that, more signs of the times:
In 2006, the Democrats regained control of the Maryland governorship, with Democratic challenger Martin O'Malley solidly defeating Republican incumbent Robert Ehrlich. Most therefore assumed that, in crab state politics, Ehrlich was done. Maryland tends to be a Democrat-leaning state anyway, so it was expected that O'Malley would have a long gubernatorial tenure.

Note also that Republicans continue to have a huge advantage in voter enthusiasm:

"The Republican Party now holds about the same advantage in enthusiasm among its party’s voters that the Democratic Party held in June 2006 and the GOP had late in the 1994 campaign. Moreover, more Republicans than Democrats are now paying close attention to election news (64 percent vs. 50 percent)."

That's from the very nonpartisan Pew Research Center.

And all of this news should only heighten GOP enthusiasm...

Nope--Ehrlich will run this year to reclaim his old position.
And guess what--a poll today shows him leading O'Malley by 3 points.

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-07-01T09:45:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Twins 5, Tigers 1: ho hum, the Tigers go to Minnesota and once again lose a series. I can't remember the last time they won a series there. Keys: this was a bad pitching matchup--Tiger rookie Andy Oliver vs solid Minnesota starter Kevin Slowey. The Tigers made a couple of more errors--they've made 55 errors this year, second most in the league. Detroit had a soft schedule earlier this month, and took advantage of it. But in the past 9 games, the schedule got tougher. Guess what--the Tigers went only 3-6. The Twins remain the team to beat in the AL Central.
Rangers 6, Angels 4: big win for the Rangers. The obvious key: Vlad Guerrero, who's just doing ridiculous things in his return to Anaheim--2 home runs last night, 4 hits in all, and for the series as a whole he has 3 homers and 6 RBIs. That, plus more solid work from the Rangers bullpen, allowing only 1 run over 5 innings, added up to a victory.

POLITICS DEPT:
Polling news--
Gallup has good news for Republicans concerning independent voters:
"By an average 10 percentage-point margin since March, 45% to 35%, independent registered voters have consistently preferred the Republican to the Democrat when asked which congressional candidate they would vote for in their district. Independents' preference for Republicans has been generally consistent over this time, with the gap in favor of Republicans increasing slightly since March, from 8 to 12 points."

That's certainly consistent with all the different polling I've seen.
In other polling news:
Rasmussen now has, in Pennsylvania, Republican Pat Toomey out to a 6 point lead over Democrat Joe Sestak, 45-39. A number of Democrats in the past several weeks have criticized Sestak's campaign operation...
And only 28% of respondents see this country as being on the right track. 66% see us as being on the wrong track. Wow...

Wednesday's wash

2010-06-30T09:15:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Twins 11, Tigers 4: bad night for Tigers' starting and relief pitching (blame Armando Galarraga and Fu Te-Ni) and a good night for Minnesota's Denard Span, with 3 triples. And I still suspect that the Tigers had a letdown after the Joel Zumaya injury. They need to get back to it; they play this afternoon and still have a chance to win the series.
Angels 6, Rangers 5: tight ballgame in Anaheim; the Rangers almost pulled it out in a see-saw game. Keys: this time the Rangers bullpen gave up a key hit, a 3-run double to Bobby Abreu in the 6th; and the Rangers left 9 men on base, including several in crucial situations.

POLITICS DEPT:
Some interesting poll numbers today:
In Kentucky, conservative Tea Partier Rand Paul continues to lead that race by a decent margin, 7 points, despite his controversial comments and all the hue and cry about them a few weeks ago. Yet at the same time, clearly the race has tightened. Paul, once the real campaigning begins in the fall, will need simply to reassure conservative Kentuckians that he's a solid candidate, and not off the wall. I suspect he'll be able to do that.
And in California, a Reuters/Ipsos poll has Democrat Barbara Boxer leading Carly Fiorina by only 4 points. That's a very winnable race for the GOP, and it's significant that Boxer is consistently polling under 50%.

Tuesday's trackings

2010-06-29T09:48:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 7, Twins 5: it's a nice win, and more kudos to Miguel Cabrera and Brennan Boesch, who continue to carry the lion's share of the load when it comes to driving in runs for this team. The real news from this game, however, is the obviously serious injury to Joel Zumaya. He's almost surely lost for the season; you wonder how the Tigers will replace him. Apparently the Tiger clubhouse was silent as a tomb after last night's game, due to the worry about Zumaya. That's understandable. But injuries are a part of the game, this series with the Twins is important, and the Tigers need to pick it up and be ready to go tonight.

POLITICS DEPT:
Polling watch:

Yep, little doubt about it--incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Russ Feingold is in trouble in 2010. Leading an unknown Republican by 1 or 2 points at this point--it's a winnable race for the GOP.

Monday's musings

2010-06-28T09:16:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 10, Braves 4: yesterday was a good win, but overall it was a frustrating series over the weekend for Detroit in Atlanta, as on Friday and Saturday they lost two tight games--Saturday's game on an admittedly bad call by the home plate ump on what should have been ball 4 to Johnny Damon. But yesterday, the Tigers got a decent start from Justin Verlander, and another home run from impressive rookie Brennan Boesch, who now has 12 home runs. They trail the Twins by only half a game. And now they head to Minnesota. Can they find a way to beat this Twins team? The Tigers have always struggled with them. But here comes a new opportunity...
Rangers 10, Astros 1: the Rangers have now 13 of 14. They've won 8 consecutive series. What else can you say about Josh Hamilton--a 468-foot home run last night, and he's still hitting close to .500 in the month of June. Importantly, Tommie Hunter pitched a good game as well last night for Texas. Now they head to Anaheim for 3 games with the second-place Angels. Big series...

POLITICS DEPT:
Mark Steyn over the weekend points out an interesting pattern concerning President Obama: what seems to make the president most unhappy is when folks claim he's not with it, not up to date and informed on issues and policy. Problem is, it seems like an accurate assessment:
"Barack Obama is a thin-skinned man and, according to Britain’s Daily Telegraph, White House aides indicated that what angered the president most about the Rolling Stone piece was “a McChrystal aide saying that McChrystal had thought that Obama was not engaged when they first met last year.” If finding Obama “not engaged” is now a firing offense, who among us is safe?...Only the other day, Sen. George Lemieux of Florida attempted to rouse the president to jump-start America’s overpaid, over-manned, and oversleeping federal bureaucracy and get it to do something on the oil debacle. There are 2,000 oil skimmers in the United States: Weeks after the spill, only 20 of them are off the coast of Florida. Seventeen friendly nations with great expertise in the field have offered their own skimmers; the Dutch volunteered their “super-skimmers”: Obama turned them all down. Raising the problem, Senator Lemieux found the president unengaged and uninformed. “He doesn’t seem to know the situation about foreign skimmers and domestic skimmers,” reported the senator....He doesn’t seem to know, and he doesn’t seem to care that he doesn’t know, and he doesn’t seem to care that he doesn’t care. “It can seem that at the heart of Barack Obama’s foreign policy is no heart at all,” wrote Richard Cohen in the Washington Post last week. “For instance, it’s not clear that Obama is appalled by China’s appalling human rights record. He seems hardly stirred about continued repression in Russia. . . . The president seems to stand foursquare for nothing much."

And I think Mr. Obama has a hard time with all the criticism.
If Mr. Obama had had more of a sense of history, he wouldn't have been surprised by all of his critics. Every president faces them. Every president gets criticized. Even George Washington who, when his farewell address to the nation was published in the newspapers upon his decision to retire at the end of his 2nd term, faced all kinds of harsh words from opposition newspapers. One editorialist wrote that America had been "debauched" by Washington. Another roared "Would to God you had retired to a private station four years ago!"

Criticism comes with the job, Mr. Obama. Better get used to it. No one forced you into this gig, remember.

Friday's fish fry

2010-06-25T11:08:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 6, Mets 5: the Tigers avoid a sweep. Starter Armando Galarraga pitches decently and gets the win (his first since his near-perfect game; he'd pitched well but had no-decisions in his previous 3 starts). Ryan Raburn homers; the Tigers need his hitting. The Twins lose again, so the Tigers only trail them in the AL Central by half a game. So not a bad night.
Rangers 6, Pirates 5: the Rangers have now won 11 straight games. Keys: Vlad Guerrero had the game-winning hit in the 9th; he's now batting .326 for this team. Who expected that, after his injury-plagued 2009? Another key: the Rangers' bullpen, which in 3 innings pitched last night allowed 2 hits and no runs. The Rangers rallied from a 5-1 deficit.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
Polling news:

In Washington state, for Republicans, the race against Democratic incumbent Senator Patty Murray remains very, very winnable.

Meanwhile, in the Republican senatorial primary in Arizona, i see no signs that John McCain is in much trouble any longer.
He's rather obviously, and somewhat desperately, tacked to the right in recent months. But AZ Republicans don't seem to mind.

By the way, speaking, as we were yesterday, of President Obama's declining poll numbers: what's interesting is that we're starting to see, in the mainstream media, as an explanation of this, an argument very much like this one made by Chuck Todd et al in MSNBC's "First Thoughts" column:
"Our new NBC/WSJ poll is pretty brutal for President Obama. Picture Rocky Balboa after seven rounds -- bruised, bleeding, black eye. That's what Obama looks like in our poll. But Obama hasn't been knocked down or knocked out, yet he certainly looks wobbly. And to beat this analogy to death, a defender would argue that it appears he's taking on Apollo Creed (the economy), Clubber Lang (concerns about the deficit), and Ivan Drago (the oil spill) all at the same time. For the first time in our survey, Obama's approval rating is upside down (at 45%-48%); for the first time in his presidency, more than 60% believe the country is on the wrong track; and for the first time in his presidency, Obama's "very negative" score on the feeling thermometer nearly matches his "very positive" score. The White House has recently been fond of using the phrase "inflection point" to indicate a new chapter in terms of their handling of the oil spill. Well, this poll is potentially an inflection point in terms of public opinion on this president. After months of keeping his head about water, he's now been dragged down to be unpopular as the rest of Washington."

Yes, Todd and company rightly acknowledge Obama's troubles in the polls. But note the subtle reason he gives for the slide: that Obama (gasp!) is daring to take on the economy, the deficit, and the oil spill all at the same time. Poor man! Gosh, maybe the American people are asking too much of him. Maybe the presidency is too difficult of a job. Maybe one man can't be expected to solve everything.

It all sounds familiar to me. Why? Because we heard this same kind of thing--especially from Democrats and liberals across the punditry--back in the late 1970s when Jimmy Carter was president. He too faced all these problems. Gosh, how could he solve them all? How could he be expected too?, asked his defenders.

Here's the thing: we don't hear this kind of defense from these people when a conservative Republican is in office. No, sir. If there are problems and things aren't going right under a GOP president, why, it's because he's incompetent, he hates government, he doesn't know how to use government, he can't get things done, he's an incompetent, he's stupid, if only a Democrat was in charge, etc etc etc.

Suddenly claiming now that problems are too big for one man is a hypocritical falsehood. Don't let them get away with it.

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-06-24T09:38:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Mets 5, Tigers 0: the Tigers continue to struggle on the road. They fall meekly to the Mets in last night's affair, getting only 5 hits. It doesn't help that the Mets are hot, having won 21 of their last 28, and at home.
Meanwhile it was Rangers 13, Pirates 3: the Rangers are streaking; they're hot, everyone's hitting, they've won 10 in a row now, and they're playing the reeling Pirates at home. It all adds up to victories. The Rangers piled up 17 hits last night.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
The McChrystal firing:

I can't really blame President Obama for doing it, given the near-insubordination McChrystal and aides professed, given how it must have soured the relationship between the prez and the general, given McChrystal's obvious level of discomfort with the administration (otherwise he would never have let the ROLLING STONE article go forward). But, as Thomas Sowell notes today, the truly important issue is our Afghanistan policy--and it has real holes in it:
"This is, after all, an administration that waited for months last year before acting on General McChrystal’s urgent request for 40,000 more troops, which he warned would be necessary to prevent the failure of the mission in Afghanistan. He got 30,000 eventually — and a public statement by President Obama about when he wants to start withdrawing American troops from that country. In no previous period of history has an American president announced a timetable for pulling out troops. They may have had a timetable in mind, but none of these presidents was irresponsible enough to tell the world — including our enemies — when our troops would be leaving. Such information encourages our enemies, who know that they need only wait us out before they can take over, whether in Afghanistan or elsewhere. At the same time, it undermines our allies, who know that relying on the United States is dangerous in the long run, and that they had better make the best deal they can get with our enemies."

Meanwhile, poll numbers don't look so good for President Obama these days, either. Check out the results from the latest NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll:
"Americans are more pessimistic about the state of the country and less confident in President Barack Obama's leadership than at any point since Mr. Obama entered the White House, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. The survey also shows grave and growing concerns about the Gulf oil spill, with overwhelming majorities of adults favoring stronger regulation of the oil industry and believing that the spill will affect the nation's economy and environment. Sixty-two percent of adults in the survey feel the country is on the wrong track, the highest level since before the 2008 election. Just one-third think the economy will get better over the next year, a 7-point drop from a month ago and the low point of Mr. Obama's tenure. Amid anxiety over the nation's course, support for Mr. Obama and other incumbents is eroding. For the first time, more people disapprove of Mr. Obama's job performance than approve. And 57% of voters would prefer to elect a new person to Congress than re-elect their local representatives, the highest share in 18 years."

In other polling news, polls still show the supposedly un-electable Sharron Angle leading Democratic leader Harry Reid in Nevada--by 7 points no less.

Wednesday's wash

2010-06-23T09:48:00.000-07:00

SPORTS NEWS:
Gooaalllll! The USA soccer team scores in the 91st minute to defeat Algeria, 1-0 and advance to the next round.

The American team deserves a lot of credit. Algeria's defense was stout. But the Americans kept attacking, kept driving, kept probing. Finally it paid off. Again the US had a goal disallowed; again replays strongly suggested it was a bad call. But they didn't allow that to frustrate them and take them off their game.

And who says soccer isn't exciting? There was no scoring in this game until very late. Yet I for one found pulsating; partly of course because there was so much riding on it. Go USA...

BASEBALL DIARY:
Well, the Detroit Tigers had Justin Verlander pitching for them last night on the road at the NY Mets, so you'd think they'd have a good chance. Not so--on a rainy night Verlander didn't have his good stuff, exited the game early due to a long rain delay, and the Mets pounded the Tigers' bullpen in winning 14-6.
Tiger pitchers walked 7, hit 2 batters, etc etc. The Tigers have to play better on the road.

But it was also Rangers 6, Pirates 3: the Rangers have now won 9 games in a row. Starting pitcher Tommie Hunter gave Texas 6 solid innings pitched, striking out 6 and walking none. Josh Hamilton had two more hits, including a home run, and has 33 hits in his last 68 at bats.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
So Nikki Haley, the daughter of Indian immigrants to the United States, raised as a Sikh, a convert to Christianity, is the Republican nominee for governor of South Carolina.

Hmmm. Funny. According to various liberal acquaintances of mine, South Carolina Republicans are at the heart of where one will find racism, bigotry, and prejudice in this country. Yet they voted en masse for Haley. I think our liberal friends will have a hard time explaining that one.

Tuesday's trackings

2010-06-22T09:29:00.000-07:00

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
General McChrystal's dissent: I think Victor Davis Hanson has it about right here.

The general undoubtedly is right in various facets concerning Obama administration policy. But he should make those opinions known through private channels, not publicly; and not, especially, through ROLLING STONE.

As for the current state of the oil spill in the Gulf and the Obama administration, Ben Stein in the American Spectator makes a great point today:

"Mr. Obama has been using this terrible accident to blame and castigate the oil companies. Inasmuch as the big oil companies are literally the only people on the planet who have even a clue about how to deal with the crisis, shouldn't he act nice to them instead of humiliating them? If your house is on fire, you politely ask the neighbors for help. You don't yell at them and call them names. Why not ask them nicely to help and see what response you get? How can that possibly hurt?"

Answer: it wouldn't. But Mr. Obama's liberal base wouldn't like it, and that's probably what's decisive here.

Polling stuff:
In Arizona, right about when all the controversy over the Arizona immigration law blew up, incumbent AZ Governor Jan Brewer was deciding whether to sign the bill or not. At the time, polls on the upcoming Republican gubernatorial primary showed her in either a dead heat with her opponents, or perhaps barely ahead. Well, she signed it into law.

And now she leads her opponents in the polls for the gubernatorial nomination by over 40 points. Think the law remains popular in Arizona?

Meanwhile the Obama administration isn't having much luck with the American people concerning the economy and its policies, so sayeth the NY Times:
"The poll, which examines the public’s reaction to the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, highlights some of the complex political challenges the Obama administration faces. For instance, despite intense news coverage and widespread public concern about the economic and ecological damage from the gulf disaster, most Americans remain far more concerned about jobs and the nation’s overall economy. And in that regard, President Obama does not fare well: 54 percent of the public say he does not have a clear plan for creating jobs, while only 34 percent say he does, an ominous sign heading into this fall’s midterm elections. Respondents were nearly evenly split on the president’s handling of the economy — 45 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove. His job approval rating remains just below 50 percent. And by a nearly 2-to-1 margin, Americans think the country is on the wrong track."

Monday's musings

2010-06-21T09:44:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 3, Diamondbacks 1: the Tigers take 2 of 3 from Arizona, and finish an 8-1 home stand. Encouraging...but let's see how they do as the schedule gets tougher. Key stat from yesterday: Max Scherzer got the win, allowing just 1 run in 7 innings. Scherzer is now 3-2 with a 3.94 ERA in his last 5 starts. The Tigers need him to be a reliable starter...
And it was Rangers 5, Astros 4 (10 innings): the Rangers had a good weekend too, sweeping Houston and moving to 13 games over the .500 mark. One key to recent Rangers' success has been Josh Hamilton, who had 5 hits yesterday, plus a single to drive in the tying run in the 9th inning, and a single to score the winning run in the 10th.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
So the Democrats gambled that passing ObamaCare, despite its unpopularity with the voters at the time, would in the end benefit them. That gamble appears to have failed:
"The Democrats made a strategic choice to pass health reform even though they knew it did not have majority support. They assumed passage would generate a positive initial response from the media—which it did. They also hoped that, with time, voters would see reform in a more favorable light, and that health care would not pose an issue in the midterm elections. Were the Democrats right? If our polling is correct, they were not. In January, we asked voters in 11 states that could have competitive Senate races in November—Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio and Pennsylvania—how they felt about health reform and how they were likely to vote. The polls were conducted by YouGov using a panel of Internet users selected to represent registered voters in each state. We found widespread opposition to reform—and to the Democratic senators who voted in favor of it. Last month, we went back to the same voters and asked the same questions. We found that public opinion about health reform is roughly stable, and opposition to reform appears to be an important determinant of voting intention in the midterm elections—particularly for political independents."

Friday's fish fry

2010-06-18T11:05:00.001-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 8, Nationals 3: the Tigers have now won 6 straight. Perhaps they're beginning to hit; one key stat from yesterday's game was that Detroit pounded out 19 hits. Another key stat: Jeremy Bonderman pitched well, and perhaps shows signs of becoming a reliable starting pitcher again. The Tigers need him.
Rangers 6, Marlins 4: the Rangers have now won 5 straight. And the win yesterday completed a 3-game sweep on the road. Their pitching has been decent. But don't overlook the impact Vlad Guerrero has had on this Ranger team. The Angels (understandably) thought him done after last season, what with all his injuries. But the Rangers took a flyer on him. And he's hitting well over .300, with 15 home runs (including one last night) and nearly 60 RBIs.

OTHER SPORTS NEWS:
So NFL Commish Roger Goodell and others are talking about, soon, instituting an 18-game regular season and doing away with 2 pre-season games. I say hallelujah--more good football, fewer meaningless exhibition games in which starters hardly play. But apparently many NFL players don't see it the same way:
"The Ravens' Lewis criticized the plan, telling the NFLPA website that players "are not machines" -- a sentiment that was echoed a day later in the Giants' locker room. The overwhelming concern there was injuries, with players fearful that a longer season means more injuries and shorter careers. You can see why: Coaches who can afford to coast the last week of the regular season don't rest starters because they want to look at their backups; they rest them for fear of injuries that could impair their playoff chances, and Wes Welker, please step forward."

But look, guys--1] players get injured in pre-season games, too. 2] So the chance of injury is there every day, all the time--even in practice. Yes, there's a chance you could get injured. But remember you get well-compensated for what you do. 3]Look, the pre-season just isn't working. The "games" are boring. They're not effectively getting teams ready to start the regular season. One NY Giants player in the linked piece above argues that younger players need the pre-season to try and impress the coaches and make the team. But surely practices and off-season OTAs can help with that, and can help players get ready for a long season.

I think some of the players' concerns should be addressed. But I have no doubt that two extra regular season NFL games, along with doing away with two exhibitions, would be a huge hit with fans; and what they want should be part of this, too.

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-06-17T09:49:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 8, Nationals 3: the Tigers have won 5 straight now, and appear to be playing better. We'll know more when the competition gets tougher. Key stats from last night: Justin Verlander did what an ace should do, striking out 11 and winning his 8th game. Tigers rookie Brennan Boesch had a 3-run homer last night; he's now hitting .344.
Rangers 6, Marlins 3: the Rangers have now won 11 of their past 15. Keys to last night: Michael Young became the all-time leader among past and present Rangers in hits; he now has 1748 for his career, and passed Pudge Rodriguez. Typically for him, the record-breaker came on a two-run single in the 8th to break open a close game; another clutch hit. I wonder if fans around the country know how good this guy really is. Also key for the Rangers last night was their bullpen, as both Darren O'Day and Neftali Feliz pitched innings of hitless relief.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
Obama, the spill, and the polls:
"Six in ten Americans disapprove of how President Barack Obama's handling the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, a jump from last month, according to a new national poll. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey also indicates that vast majority of the public disapproves of how BP has handled the environmental disaster and two-thirds say making a profit rather than cleaning up the spill is oil giant's top priority. Fifty-nine percent of people questioned say they disapprove of how the president is dealing with the spill, up eight points from May. Forty-one percent say they approve of how Obama's handling the crisis, down five points from last month."

The president's problem is that, while he wants the public to blame BP, and not him. But the public blames both of them.

Meanwhile the dean of Washington pundits/observers, the Washington Post's David Broder, weighs in on all this today, and he too doesn't spare President Obama one bit:
"If there is any value in President Obama's knocking himself out to dramatize on prime-time television his impotence in the face of the Gulf of Mexico oil leak calamity, I wish someone would explain it. His multiple inspection trips to the afflicted and threatened states, his Oval Office TV address to the nation, and now his sit-down with the executives of BP have certainly established his personal connection with one of the worst environmental disasters in history. But the only thing people want to hear from him is word that the problem is on its way to being solved -- and this message he cannot deliver. The polls so far suggest that voters have a sensible and realistic perspective on all this and are not punishing Obama for failing to anticipate the drilling platform accident and not having a handy tool kit for its repair. To date, his approval numbers have barely moved. But by dramatizing his belief that the struggle in the gulf has become his main preoccupation, Obama has essentially ignored challenges that may be much more vital to the country -- and to him."

Indeed. This reminds me of Jimmy Carter and the Iranian hostage crisis, in 1979 and 1980. Carter made the crisis the focal point of his presidency. But his inability to solve it, while claiming it was his responsibility to do so, sunk him. Could the same kind of thing happen to the Obama presidency?

Poll watch:
I said recently that Arkansas' Blanche Lincoln, despite her victory in the runoff last week and becoming the Democratic nominee for the senate after all, was still toast. And she is--a poll shows her trailing Republican John Boozman by no less than 29 points.

Wednesday's wash

2010-06-16T09:32:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 7, Nationals 4: so the Tigers have won 4 in a row. But, well, they've come vs Pittsburgh and Washington. Still, you have to start somewhere. Key stats: Max Scherzer pitched, not great, but decently...striking out 9. Ryan Raburn had 2 hits and batted in 4. Detroit needs to keep this streak going.
Rangers 3, Marlins 2: the Rangers pulled off a big win with 2 runs in the 9th off of Florida's closer, thanks to a pinch-hit triple by Matt Treanor (an unexpected hero). But the key to the game was C.J. Wilson's excellent start, giving up only 2 runs in 7 innings, and the bullpen then closing it down. A different guy doing it every night for Texas...a positive sign.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
Well, the reviews are in on President Obama's Oval Office address last night concerning the oil spill, and what's interesting is that pretty much across the board--from conservatives, centrists, and liberals--the reviews are big-time negative. Maureen Dowd of the NY Times, who wants so badly to love Obama with all her heart, has a typical response:
"You know the president is drowning — in oil this time — when he uses the Oval Office. And do words really matter when the picture of oil gushing out of the well continues to fill the screen?...The president acknowledged that the problems at the Minerals Management Service were deeper than he had known and “the pace of reform was just too slow.” He admitted that “there will be more oil and more damage before this siege is done.” He appointed a “son of the gulf” spill czar and a new guard dog at M.M.S. and tried to restore a sense of confident leadership — “The one approach I will not accept is inaction” — and compassion, reporting on the shrimpers and fishermen and their “wrenching anxiety that their way of life may be lost.” He acted as if he was the boss of BP on the issue of compensation. And he called on us to pray....Robert Gibbs on Tuesday continued the White House effort to emote, saying on TV: “It makes your blood boil.” But he misses the point. Nobody needs to see the president yelling or pounding the table. Ronald Reagan could convey command with a smile; Clint Eastwood, with a whisper. Americans need to know the president cares so they can be sure he’s taking fast, muscular and proficient action....[Obama is] too hesitant to take the obvious action. He seems unable to muster the adrenalin necessary to go full bore until the crowd has waited and wailed and almost given up on him, but it’s a nerve-racking way to campaign and govern."

Not enough specifics. Not enough command. This speech certainly failed with most in the media; it's hard to see it succeeding with the American public.

Tuesday's trackings

2010-06-15T09:24:00.000-07:00

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
President Obama and the oil spill:
I think today that Thomas Sowell nails it concerning the biggest problem with the Obama administration's handling of this crisis:
"Either the government knows how to stop the oil spill or it doesn’t. If they know how to stop it, then why have they let thousands of barrels of oil per day keep gushing out, for weeks on end? All they have to do is tell BP to step aside, while the government comes in to do it right. If they don’t know, then what is all this political grandstanding about keeping their boot on the neck of BP, the attorney general of the United States going down to the Gulf to threaten lawsuits — on what charges was unspecified — and President Obama showing up in his shirt sleeves?
Just what is Obama going to do in his shirt sleeves, except impress the gullible? He might as well have shown up in a tuxedo with white tie, for all the difference it makes....This government is not about governing. It is about creating an impression. That worked on the campaign trail in 2008, but it is a disaster in the White House, where rhetoric is no substitute for reality. If the Obama administration were for real, and trying to help get the oil spill contained as soon as possible, the last thing its attorney general would be doing is threatening a lawsuit. A lawsuit is not going to stop the oil, and creating a distraction can only make people at BP start directing their attention toward covering themselves, instead of covering the oil well. If and when the attorney general discovers that BP did something illegal, that will be time enough to start a lawsuit. But making a public announcement at this time accomplishes absolutely nothing substantive. It is just more political grandstanding....This is not about oil. This is about snake oil."

Bingo. You know, I knew when the Obama administration came into office that I and many other conservatives would disagree with it on many issues. But I really didn't think Obama would sink to the level of the Clinton administration and it's endless spinning, it's endless obsession with polls and its political standing, its grabbing on to issues not for their intrinsic merit but for the political benefits they could offer, the Clintons' willingness to do anything, say anything, lie about anything, solely (again) for political benefit.

I used to call Bill Clinton just that--a snake oil salesman, a carnival barker, a guy willing to do pretty much anything to advance himself. I thought Obama might be a bit above that. I might be wrong. I don't think Obama has quite sunk to Clintonian levels yet. But he keeps getting closer.

Some polling news:
Some interesting 2010 generic ballot numbers out today. Both Gallup and Rasmussen have Republicans out to a solid lead on the generic ballot--Gallup by 5, Rasmussen by a rather astounding 10 points.
Of course, this comes after this past weekend when polls both by FOX and PPP had Democrats with a slight lead on the generic ballot.

We'll have to see how the polling continues to go in coming days, but Gallup has consistently shown Republicans inching up in their poll, and Rasmussen has consistently shown the GOP with a solid lead.

By the way, concerning senate races, Republican David Vitter is running for re-election this year in Louisiana. He's the man who had a rather bad personal scandal not long ago, and you sure don't hear too many folks speaking highly of him. And yet, and yet...in a poll out today, he had a 20 point lead over his opponent.

Monday's musings

2010-06-14T09:40:00.001-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 4, Pirates 3: the Tigers had a good weekend; they swept the Pirates, and yesterday's win was a comeback effort, as Miguel Cabrera hit a 3-run homer in the 8th to overcome a Pirate lead. Cabrera is having an astonishing year; he already has 56 RBIs, and we're not close to the halfway mark of the season yet. Meanwhile Detroit was fortunate to play the Pirates; they've lost a bunch of games in a row, and are averaging only 2.5 runs during that stretch.
Rangers 7, Brewers 2: good weekend for the Rangers; they took two of three. Yesterday's key players: first, Rangers starter Colby Lewis, who has come back from Japan and given Texas a number of quality starts. Yesterday he allowed just 2 runs and struck out 10. And the other star was Josh Hamilton, who now has 15 home runs for Texas.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
Wow--so President Obama will now make an Oval Office speech on the Gulf oil spill?
Sounds to me like a rather desperate act from someone who knows he's in trouble on an issue.

Meanwhile, remember ObamaCare? Kathleen Sebelius, the head of the Health and Human Services Agency, now has the power to write new regulations, and she's doing it--and writing regs that show the bill's critics were right:
" She's starting off by applying new regs to health plans offered by large employers -- even though these costly rules were supposedly only going to apply to plans sold in the state insurance "exchanges" that don't get created until 2014. This twist is spelled out in an 83-page draft of a new regulation that leaked late last week.
Bottom line: Sebelius means to dictate what your insurance plan must look like almost from day one, no matter how you get your coverage. Indeed, the draft regs envision more than half of all policies having to change within three years -- an unmistakable break with President's Obama's oft-repeated promise, "If people like their insurance, they will be able to keep it."

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-06-10T09:24:00.000-07:00

SPORTS NEWS:
So in college football, the first domino has fallen--Colorado will join the Pac-10.

This is only the beginning--look for the Big 10 and the Pac 10 to massively expand and become super-conferences, and for the Big 12 to soon be no more. Much of this might be apparent in as short a time period as a week or two.

BASEBALL DIARY:
Rangers 12, Mariners 2: a good night for the Rangers. Starter C.J. Wilson pitched 7 strong innings, allowing only 4 hits. The Rangers offensively piled up 15 hits. Key stat: Josh Hamilton is now 15 for his last 35.
But not so good for the Tigers, as they lose 15-3 to the White Sox. The team remains inconsistent; and so does starter Rick Porcello, who got pounded. This is one of the problems with young players. Porcello had a good rookie season last year. So, naturally, all of us fans just assumed he'd improve even further in season 2. News flash: young players don't always automatically improve. They're young, they're immature, and sometimes they struggle. But the Tigers need Porcello if they're to be an impact team this year.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
The year of the conservative woman:
In California, Carly Fiorina will be running for the U.S. Senate against the Democrat Barbara Boxer. Conservatives will disagree with Fiorina on some social issues. So should they support her? Larry Kudlow today makes a powerful case to say YES:
"Fiorina wants spending controls and limited government. She opposed the $860 billion stimulus as well as Obamacare. She is a smart, fiscally conservative woman who has campaigned on lower income-tax rates, a reduced capital-gains tax, and the elimination of the estate tax. And she can be expected to push for a lower business-tax rate for large and small companies."

Note further that Harold Meyerson of the Washington Post today writes a column that surely reflects the views of many Democrats and media types--that Fiorina is too far to the right in her positions to win in California. Well, we shall see, won't we...Boxer's poll numbers haven't looked especially strong over the past few months.

Meanwhile, those same Democrats and media types have rushed to the consensus that in Nevada, Republican/Tea Partier Sharron Angle has no shot whatsoever to beat Harry Reid. Really? A Rasmussen poll begs to disagree, showing Angle with an 11-point lead.
Would I like to see other polls reflect a similar lead? Yes. Do I discount Rasmussen? No--its polls showed a lot of accuracy in 2009.

Wednesday's wash

2010-06-09T09:30:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Rangers 7, Mariners 1: a nice bounce-back win for the Rangers. Key stat: Ranger starter Colby Lewis throws 119 pitches. But allows only 1 run and gives the Rangers over 7 good innings of work.
Tigers 7, White Sox 2: no perfect game for Armando Galarraga. But he pitches decently, gives the Tigers a chance to win, and they do so...thanks to a 6-run 7th inning and a big home run from rookie phenom Brennan Boesch.

POLITICS UPDATE:
So Blanche Lincoln surprises both me and others, and survives her runoff election vs Bill Halter in Arkansas last night. Hey, I was wrong; tip your hat to her.

But I remain convinced she's toast come November.

So far the most incisive comment I've seen concerning last night's vote is this one, from Ralph Reed:
"What began as a tea-party surge now has an interesting wrinkle: this just might be the year of the conservative woman. Nikki Haley won nearly 50 percent of the vote in a crowded field in South Carolina, in spite of an eleventh-hour flurry of personal attacks. She had been endorsed by Jenny Sanford and Sarah Palin, among others. While that race may go to a run-off, Haley is the likely GOP nominee and will probably win in November. Ditto Sharron Angle, the tea-party-backed candidate for U.S. Senate in Nevada. The lamestream media is parroting the Democratic spin that these results bode well for Harry Reid — don’t believe it. Reid’s reelect is in the low 40’s, and polling has shown him losing to Angle. It shows how truly weak and desperate the Democrats are as they head into the fall: He’s the Senate majority leader, and he has to pray for an allegedly weak GOP nominee, hoping to “win dirty” in his own home state! The victories of Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman in California also show the appeal of a conservative woman at the polls. Though Whitman is far more socially liberal than Fiorina, she won on the conservative themes of reigning in government spending and creating jobs by lowering taxes."

Tuesday's trackings

2010-06-08T09:22:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
The Tigers had the day off. Elsewhere, it was Mariners 4, Rangers 2: a very blah game. Maybe Mariner starter Cliff Lee had the most to do with that; he shut the Rangers down on only 7 hits over 9 innings. 84 of his 107 pitches were strikes.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
President Obama desperately tries to sound and look angry concerning the oil spill:
"Is President Obama bowing to criticism that he hasn't shown enough emotion and outrage about the Gulf of Mexico oil spill? In an interview with the "Today" show's Matt Lauer on Tuesday morning, the president offered his bluntest response yet about the disaster, telling Lauer he's been talking to experts about "whose ass to kick" when it comes to responsibility for the mess. "I was down there a month ago, before most of these talking heads were even paying attention to the Gulf. A month ago I was meeting with fishermen down there, standing in the rain talking about what a potential crisis this could be," Obama said, defending his administration's handling of the spill. "And I don't sit around just talking to experts because this is a college seminar; we talk to these folks because they potentially have the best answers, so I know whose ass to kick."

My opinion? Obama sounds reactive, he sounds contrived, he sounds like someone who's been reading administration polls that say he should show more emotion and anger, so he's going to throw some angry words around and hope it boosts his poll numbers. I don't think the American people will find it very real, or convincing.

Meanwhile it's another 2010 elections primary day.
My big prediction: incumbent Dem Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas to be upset today by challenger Bill Halter in the senatorial runoff there...

So how can one hold President Obama, and the Obama administration, at fault for the oil spill in the Gulf? Ah, excellent question--and today Byron York provides an answer:
"The oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico is gushing out of control. The Obama administration is at first slow to see the seriousness of the accident. Then, as the crisis becomes clear, the federal bureaucracy becomes entangled in itself trying to deal with the problem. "At least a dozen federal agencies have taken part in the spill response," the New York Times reports, "making decision-making slow, conflicted and confused, as they sought to apply numerous federal statutes."
For example, it took the Department of Homeland Security more than a week to classify the spill as an event calling for the highest level of federal action. And when state officials in Louisiana tried over and over to win federal permission to build sand barriers to protect fragile coastal wetlands from the oil, they got nowhere. "For three weeks, as the giant slick crept closer to shore," the Times reports, "officials from the White House, Coast Guard, Army Corps of Engineers, Fish and Wildlife Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Environmental Protection Agency debated the best approach." The bureaucracy wasn't bending to anyone's will. The direction from the top was not clear. And accountability? So far, the only head that has rolled during the Gulf crisis has been that of Minerals Management Service chief Elizabeth Birnbaum. But during a May 27 news conference, Obama admitted he didn't even know whether she had resigned or been fired. "I found out about it this morning, so I don't yet know the circumstances," the president said. "And [Interior Secretary] Ken Salazar's been in testimony on the Hill." Obama's answer revealed that he hadn't fired Birnbaum, and he couldn't reach a member of his Cabinet who was a few blocks down Pennsylvania Avenue."

Monday's musings

2010-06-07T09:58:00.000-07:00

SPORTS NEWS:
So in the NBA Finals, it's now tied at 1 game apiece, as the Celtics last night stole one in LA, beating the Lakers 103-94.

A couple of things strike me. Everyone's talking about Ray Allen's 3-point barrage last night, and well they should. But what really helps the Celtics is their penetration into the lane, inside, and their passing, often leading to easy layups. Rajon Rondo is a big factor there; but Kevin Garnett and other Celtics also seem to excel at it. I don't know of any team in the NBA that's better at it. And do you wonder if Kobe Bryant remains a bit overconfident? The ESPN story linked to above has him yawning after the game that, well, it's a long series and you can't get too high or too low. True...but he sounds a little blase. Overconfidence can bite anyone when all is said and done--even Kobe. We'll see...

BASEBALL DIARY:
Royals 7, Tigers 2: the Tigers continue to struggle offensively, especially against the Royals' Brian Bannister. Only 6 hits yesterday; they lost 2 of 3 over the weekend. Something's missing...
Rays 9, Rangers 5: the Rangers actually had a good weekend, taking 2 of 3 from the league-leading Tampa Bay Rays. But yesterday, not so good...again, too many pitches from starter Rich Harden, along with too many baserunners and runs. Again he goes only 5 innings. The Rangers battled hard, and kept it a game...and give the Rays some credit, this is a solid club, with speed, hitting, and defense. Hopefully the Rangers can make some hay now this week at home against the Mariners.

POLTIICS UPDATE DEPT:
Yes, indeed, this is no accident:
"If the time-honored tradition of the political meeting is not quite dead, it seems to be teetering closer to extinction. Of the 255 Democrats who make up the majority in the House, only a handful held town-hall-style forums as legislators spent last week at home in their districts. It was no scheduling accident. With images of overheated, finger-waving crowds still seared into their minds from the discontent of last August, many Democrats heeded the advice of party leaders and tried to avoid unscripted question-and-answer sessions. The recommendations were clear: hold events in controlled settings — a bank or credit union, for example — or tour local businesses or participate in community service projects."

And that's what a party in trouble with the voters does.

Friday's fish fry

2010-06-04T11:38:00.000-07:00

POLITICS DEPT:
So the Obama administration is going to tout this month's jobs/economy report as good news, but don't buy it:
"All but 20,000 of the 431,000 jobs added were temporary hires for the U.S. Census, and the dip in unemployment rate is the result of the continued exodus of Americans from the ranks of the job-seeking to the merely jobless — 322,000 in May. By contrast, employment decreased by 35,000 to 139.4 million, and the labor participation rate decreased from 65.2 to 65 percent. By another measure, 16.6 percent of Americans remain either unemployed or underemployed."

Let's hope the rest of the news media reports this, too.

Polling news:
It looks increasingly that, in Arkansas, in the Democratic senatorial runoff election between incumbent Blanche Lincoln and challenger Bill Halter, the incumbent (Lincoln) is going down.

Here will be yet another example--Pennsylvania is too, with Joe Sestak as the nominee--of a situation where liberal Democrats won't be able to claim that their candidate lost because he was too stand-pat, or too conservative, didn't support ObamaCare, etc. The election will offer a real choice in Arkansas. I can't wait to see what happens.

In other pieces of good news for conservatives, in Indiana Dan Coats still looks to be in good shape for the senate seat there.

In Pennsylvania, Rasmussen now has Toomey out to a 7 point lead over Sestak.

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 12, Indians 6: time to turn the page from the ump/Galarraga situation...and it's good the Tigers did so. More big hits from Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez, who are both having big years. And cheers to the Tigers fans for treating umpire Jim Joyce with respect yesterday...
But it was White Sox 4, Rangers 3: the Rangers didn't play horribly here; the White Sox got some good pitching, getting the Rangers 3-4-5 hitters to go 0 for 12, and although Colby Lewis pitched decently, a couple of home-run balls beat him.

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-06-03T10:16:00.000-07:00

THE LATEST MIDDLE EAST CRISIS:
Hmmm...you can tell Israel's opponents in this don't have much to say; they're now yammering on about process, not content:
"Israel's military is using video confiscated from people on the Gaza-bound aid flotilla to justify opening fire during its deadly raid on the ships, drawing sharp criticism Thursday from foreign correspondents who say some of the footage was shot by journalists."

So they can't say much about the content of the videos (save to complain Israel is supposedly being "selective" in its use of it), because it appears to back up Israel's case. So instead, they want to argue about how Israel got them. That's usually a sign of folks who don't have much to go on...

BASEBALL DIARY:
So, gosh, another ho-hum game last night in Detroit between the Tigers and Indians, which at least Detroit won 3-0, right? Well...wrong; as all know by now, it was a perfect game, but it wasn't.
I don't know what can be said about this. On the one hand, my inclination earlier today was to say...well, that's baseball. What makes baseball unique is the human element in it; that it relies on umpires, who generally are very good at what they do and get most calls right. But once in a while they blow one, and inevitably that's going to happen in a big situation. But that's always been baseball. That can happen, it's always been part of it, and baseball fans have (sometimes reluctantly) accepted it. But on the other hand...in this particular instance, replays show that the runner was out at first on that last play. Gallarraga caught the ball cleanly, and got to the bag before the runner. That made 3 outs. It would have been a perfect game, save for that call. The replay is conclusive. So you know what?

Commissioner Bud Selig today should reverse that call, and award Armando Gallarraga a perfect game. It would simply make official what we all know to be true.

Meanwhile...the Texas Rangers won last night too, beating the White Sox 9-5. Keys: Scott Feldman pitched decently, getting lots of ground ball outs. The Rangers need him. And it looks like Ranger bats are coming alive, as both Josh Hamilton and Michael Young are hitting well, and the bottom of the batting order is hitting better (see for example Matt Treanor).

POLITICS UPDATE:
So once again the Obama Team proves what we've said here over and over again: President Obama and his advisers are not nearly as smart as many Democrats and those in the news media claimed:
"...a series of recent missteps just keeps getting worse for Barack Obama’s political operation, already under fire from inside the party for losing its golden touch. The second-guessing of the White House political shop — which is coming in part from top House Democrats — was sparked anew late Wednesday by news that the White House tried and failed to coax another Democratic Senate candidate out of making his race by dangling administration jobs in front of him. In a possible repeat of the Joe Sestak episode in Pennsylvania, insurgent U.S. Senate candidate Andrew Romanoff of Colorado said deputy White House chief of staff Jim Messina reached out to him — with a wince-inducing e-mail that is now public — with three possible jobs in September 2009. Obama wanted to keep him out of a race against Sen. Michael Bennet, the White House’s favored candidate. Taken together, the Sestak and Romanoff cases suggest a White House team that is one part Dick Daley, one part Barney Fife. They undercut Obama’s reputation on two fronts. Trying to put the fix in to deny Democratic voters the chance to choose for themselves who their Senate nominees should be is hardly consistent with the idea of “Yes, we can” grass-roots empowerment that is central to Obama’s brand. And bungling that fix is at odds with the Obama team’s image — built around the likes of Rahm Emanuel, David Axelrod, David Plouffe and Obama himself — as shrewd political operatives who know the game and always win it."

Wednesday's wash

2010-06-02T06:40:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Yecch...Indians 3, Tigers 2: Detroit just isn't hitting. They managed only 6 hits against a pitching staff with the worst ERA in the league. Only bright spot? Jeremy Bonderman, who's allowed only 7 earned runs in his last 6 starts.
But...Rangers 9, White Sox 6: the most important stats here were that the Rangers broke a 4 game losing streak, and scored 9 runs. They too have struggled to score. Also important was that Justin Smoak, who's been hitting about .160, had a home run and a single.

POLIICS UPDATE:
Well, well...it's got to be significant that the NY Times' Maureen Dowd appears to be, when it comes to President Obama, in complete abandonment mode:
"It’s not a good narrative arc: The man who walked on water is now ensnared by a crisis under water...With as much as 34 million gallons of oil inking the Gulf of Mexico, “Yes we can” has been downgraded to “Will we ever?”...Obama wanted to be a transformative president and now the presidency is transforming him. Instead of buoyant, he seems put upon. Instead of the fairy dust of hopefulness, there’s the bitter draught of helplessness."

Polling news:
Despite the recent blizzard of attacks on him in the news media, in Kentucky Tea Partier/Republican Rand Paul appears to still maintain a lead in his senate race.

Meanwhile, right now both Gallup AND Rasmussen have Republicans with a decent lead in the 2010 generic congressional ballot. Fallout against the Democrats from the oil spill and other issues, perhaps?

A random thought:
Concerning the Super Bowl being held in New York/New Jersey in 2014---so if New York so wanted a Super Bowl, and the NFL so wanted to give it to them, why didn't the area build a domed stadium??? That's what the Detroit area did when they wanted the big game...

Tuesday's trackings

2010-06-01T08:14:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
A's 4, Tigers 1: Detroit lost 3 of 4 over the weekend to Oakland, and has now lost 7 of their last 9. Largely the reason is that the Tigers aren't hitting. We worried about their offense and their potential lack of offensive production before the season, and maybe those worries were justified.
Meanwhile many thought Oakland would quickly fade; they haven't, have won 5 of 7 on their current road trip, and are back in first place. Is this team for real?

POLITICS DEPT:
So once again today Israel is being falsely accused and attacked by the usual suspects, for its supposed horrible assault against a "humanitarian" flotilla. Really? Here's some facts you may not have heard:
"Don’t members of the press ever resent being so used?
Fact: Israel imposed a blockade of Gaza to prevent weapons from reaching the radical Islamic regime there that continues to make war on Israeli civilians. Egypt too has blockaded the strip, hoping to choke off weapons to Hamas, which it views as a threat.
Fact: Humanitarian relief is delivered to Gaza from Israel on a daily basis. During the first three months of this year, 94,500 tons of supplies were transferred to Gaza from Israel, including 48,000 tons of food products; 40,000 tons of wheat; 2,760 tons of rice; 1,987 tons of clothes and footwear; and 553 tons of milk powder and baby food for the strip’s 1.5 million inhabitants. Representatives of international aid groups and the United Nations move freely to and from the Gaza Strip.
Fact: Upon learning of the intentions of the Gaza flotilla, the Israeli government asked the organizers to deliver their humanitarian aid first to an Israeli port where it would be inspected (for weapons) before being forwarded to Gaza. The organizers refused. “There are two possible happy endings,” a Muslim activist on board explained, “either we will reach Gaza or we will achieve martyrdom.”
Fact: The flotilla ignored multiple instructions from Israeli navy ships to change course and follow them to the Israeli port of Ashdod.
Fact: On board one of the ships, according to al-Jazeera, the “humanitarian” Palestinians sang “Khaybar, Khaybar, oh Jews, the army of Muhammad will return” — a reference to the 628 massacre of Jews in Arabia at the hands of Muhammad.
Fact: The flotilla’s participants included the IHH, a “humanitarian relief fund” based in Turkey that has close ties to Hamas and to global jihadi groups in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Chechnya, and elsewhere, and which has also organized relief to anti-U.S. Islamic radicals in Fallujah, Iraq. A French intelligence report suggests that IHH has provided documents to terrorists, permitting them to pose as relief workers. Among the other cheerleaders — former British MP and Saddam Hussein pal George Galloway, all-purpose America and Israel hater Noam Chomsky, and John Ging, head of UNRWA, the U.N.’s agency for Palestinian support."

Read the whole thing. And hurray for Mona Charen and others for trying, at least, to set people straight.

Friday's fish fry

2010-05-28T10:09:00.001-07:00

POLITICS DEPT:
Concerning the oil spill in the Gulf, Rich Lowry has a good reminder today:
"If the presidency of the United States is the most powerful and majestic office on earth, it does not confer omnipotence on the mere mortal who happens to occupy it.
Perhaps Obama himself needs to be reminded. A White House aide told a reporter that the president, in a fit of frustration, barked to his aides during one meeting, “Plug the damn hole.” That’s a meaningless order, with the world’s best engineers already desperately trying to solve a hellish technical problem."

Meanwhile, Peggy Noonan thinks this spill crystallizes a whole bunch of big trouble for Mr. Obama:
"I don't see how the president's position and popularity can survive the oil spill. This is his third political disaster in his first 18 months in office. And they were all, as they say, unforced errors, meaning they were shaped by the president's political judgment and instincts. There was the tearing and unnecessary war over his health-care proposal and its cost. There was his day-to-day indifference to the views and hopes of the majority of voters regarding illegal immigration. And now the past almost 40 days of dodging and dithering in the face of an environmental calamity. I don't see how you politically survive this. The president, in my view, continues to govern in a way that suggests he is chronically detached from the central and immediate concerns of his countrymen. This is a terrible thing to see in a political figure, and a startling thing in one who won so handily and shrewdly in 2008. But he has not, almost from the day he was inaugurated, been in sync with the center. The heart of the country is thinking each day about A, B and C, and he is thinking about X, Y and Z. They're in one reality, he's in another."

She goes on to say:
"I wonder if the president knows what a disaster this is not only for him but for his political assumptions. His philosophy is that it is appropriate for the federal government to occupy a more burly, significant and powerful place in America—confronting its problems of need, injustice, inequality. But in a way, and inevitably, this is always boiled down to a promise: "Trust us here in Washington, we will prove worthy of your trust." Then the oil spill came and government could not do the job, could not meet need, in fact seemed faraway and incapable: "We pay so much for the government and it can't cap an undersea oil well!"

Now I don't know if the American people as a whole are yet at where Noonan thinks they are. I tend to think Americans are blaming BP right now more than Obama. But it could be that Americans are heading in Noonan's direction. Why indeed did it take Obama until May 1 to name an administration point man for this disaster? And isn't there a contradiction in Obama's position right now? On the one hand, it's BP's fault. On the other hand, Obama claims, he and his administration are on this, have "got" this, and will solve it. Well, in that case...the longer it DOESN'T get solved, the more the American people WILL blame Obama.

In polling news--more reminders today of why Republicans can't be overconfident in 2010. For example, here we see that the Sestak/Toomey senate race in Pennsylvania will be a dogfight.

So too will be the battle any Republican will have in Nevada against Harry Reid.

We shouldn't be surprised. Our opponents have either incumbency or the White House (or both) helping them. It is good though to see that Harry Reid (for example) STILL doesn't poll above 40%...

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-05-27T08:08:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Royals 5, Rangers 2: a blah game for Texas. But then the Royals' pitcher Luke Hochevar, who was impressive, had something to do with it. Another loss for Ranger starter Scott Feldman--he won 17 games last year, but this year he's only 1-5, 6.91 ERA, and opponents are batting .326 against him in his last 8 starts.
Mariners 5, Tigers 4: a frustrating loss for Detroit, as they waste a 4-1 lead. It's simple--the bullpen has been good all year, but this time they gave it up, as Tiger reliever Ryan Perry gave up 4 runs to Seattle in the 8th.

AMERICAN IDOL:
I agree with this guy--America got this wrong, wrong, wrong. Crystal Bowersox was the best performer all season, she was clearly the best performer on the last night of competition this past Tuesday night, and she should have won Idol based on her season accomplishments.
America didn't see it that way, and I sure HOPE that it was not due to the fact that Crystal was a "dreadheaded hippie chick", a single mom, who liked music that was a bit out of the mainstream.

But I'm afraid it was.

POLITICS DEPT:
Obama Newspeak:
What's Barack Obama's top priority? Everything.

Wednesday's wash

2010-05-26T08:08:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Rangers 8, Royals 7: Texas wins a game on the road--important to note, because they've struggled on the road so far this season. Key stats: Neftali Feliz gets another save in a solid 9th inning outing. Vladimir Guerrero hits 2 home runs and a double; he now has 42 RBIs in 45 games. You would have liked to have seen Rich Harden pitch longer and better; he didn't, but the Rangers got the win.
But...Mariners 5, Tigers 3: Detroit is struggling a bit on the road right now. They've lost 3 of their last 4. And you hate to lose a game Justin Verlander started. He didn't pitch badly, but the Tigers got him only 3 runs. Key stat: Miguel Cabrera isn't with the club--he's with his wife, who is having a baby. It's where he should be, but it means the Tigers' lineup lacks some punch.

In other sports news...
So NY/NJ gets the 2014 Super Bowl.
I think NY City will do a fine job of hosting the event. That's not a problem.
To me, the problem is the fact that typical New Jersey weather late in February gives us a greater chance that weather conditions will significantly affect the outcome of the game. And I'd rather have a game of this magnitude played in the best weather we can find.

POLITICS DEPT:
Polling news:
Republicans have a real shot at winning the senate seat in Washington held by Democrat Patty Murray. Republican candidate Dino Rossi was robbed of a gubernatorial victory in that state a few years ago; he'll be a good candidate.
On the other hand, Quinnipiac shows the Dems up 6 in the generic congressional ballot for 2010. Hmmm...could be a worrying sign for Republicans...or maybe it's just an outlier. Seems to fly in the face of a lot of the other polling I've seen. Something to keep an eye on--and yet more reasons why the GOP must not be overconfident this year.

Tuesday's trackings

2010-05-25T05:34:00.000-07:00

SPORTS NEWS:
So the NBA's Cleveland Cavaliers fired former head coach Mike Brown.

Sad, and one supposes, a bit unfair--after all, the guy won 60 regular season games two seasons in a row with the Cavs. But at the same time, let's face it, given Cleveland's sudden ouster from the playoffs this year and all the negative talk that therefore is around the team right now, it's an understandable move. This team is going to need a fresh start. It has to get rid of all the negativity, LeBron or no LeBron next year. They've got to start over. An important step in accomplishing that is to have a new coach.

It's really not fair, to throw away everything a guy accomplished just because his team lost playoff series to tough foes. But in the NBA and in most professional team sports these days, whoever said life is fair.

POLITICS DEPT:
The false assumptions of ObamaCare continue to be exposed today:
"...CBO is not the only game in town. In the executive branch, the chief actuary of the Medicare program is supposed to provide the official health-care cost projections for the administration — at least he always has in the past. His cost estimate for the new health law differs in important ways from the one provided by CBO and calls into question every major contention the administration has advanced about the bill. The president says the legislation will slow the pace of rising costs; the actuary says it won’t. The president says people will get to keep their job-based plans if they want to; the actuary says 14 million people will lose their employer coverage, many of whom would certainly rather keep it than switch into an untested program. The president says the new law will improve the budget outlook; in so many words, the chief actuary says, don’t bet on it."

Republicans need to continue to pound on this as the 2010 elections approach; and remind voters just who voted in favor of this monstrosity.

In polling news, Rasmussen comes out today with a surprising survey on President Obama's job approval rating---showing that only 42% approve of his performance, while 56% disapprove.

Is the poll an outlier? Is it due to Rasmussen's methodology? Time will tell...

Monday's musings

2010-05-24T08:07:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Cubs 5, Rangers 4: the Rangers had kind of a tough weekend, losing 2 of 3 to the Cubs. But yesterday's game for example was largely about bad bounces; the Cubs got some seeing-eye singles in the first inning that helped lead to 4 runs; the Rangers, with the bases loaded in the 7th and trailing by just 1 run, had Josh Hamilton hit a liner right to the 2nd baseman. The Rangers competed hard and had good work again from their bullpen; they just didn't get the bounces.
Meanwhile, it was Tigers 6, Dodgers 2: it was important win for the Tigers, avoiding a sweep. I kind of figured they'd have trouble this weekend; the Dodgers have talent, and they'd gotten on a hot streak. Before yesterday, LA had won 13 of 14. But at least Detroit wasn't swept. And Rick Porcello pitched creditably, giving up only 2 runs in 6 innings. Now it's on to Seattle...

POLITICS DEPT:
Michael Barone today advances a very good theory--2010 isn't an anti-incumbent year; it's an anti-spending year:
"This month, three members of Congress have been beaten in their bids for reelection — a Republican senator from Utah, a Democratic congressman from West Virginia, and a Republican-turned-Democratic senator from Pennsylvania. Their records and their curricula vitae are different. But they all have one thing in common: They are members of an appropriations committee. Like most appropriators, they have based much of their careers on bringing money to their states and districts. There is an old saying on Capitol Hill that there are three parties — Democrats, Republicans, and appropriators. One reason that it has been hard to hold down government spending is that appropriators of both parties have an institutional and political interest in spending. Their defeats are an indication that spending is not popular this year."

So are the retirements of several House Democrats. So was Tea Partier Rand Paul's victory in the GOP primary in Kentucky.

Polling news:
The latest poll in Florida (from the St. Petersburg Times) has Crist eking out a tiny lead over Rubio. Not what we on the right want to hear...on the other hand,
note that the poll shows 28% of those responding to be undecided.
Perhaps when Rubio officially sews up the GOP nomination, that will change.

On the other hand, in Arkansas, the Republican candidate for the Senate, John Boozman, holds an astounding 38 point lead over incumbent Dem Blanche Lincoln.

Note that President Obama's job approval rating remains kind of stagnant; the RCP average has it at 47.9%.

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-05-20T09:56:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Rangers 4, Orioles 3: the third straight win at home for the Rangers, and their third straight one-run win, too. Key stat: Rich Harden, coming off a horrible start in Toronto, pitches nearly 6 innings of decent ball, allowing only two runs.
And the Tigers, coming off of a loss, got a good win on the road in Oakland, beating the A's, 5-1. The key: Justin Verlander, who pitched a complete game, allowed only 4 hits, and is 4-1 with a 1.26 ERA in his last five starts. He's an ace...

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
So did you see, yesterday, the president of Mexico slamming the Arizona illegal immigration law right on the White House lawn? I don't think Americans will like that; nor will they like President Obama's reaction to it. I agree with Bill Bennett:
"There is a lot to say about this — and we shall say it now. Allowing the running down of a part of the United States by the head of a foreign government, at the White House, standing next to the president — who not only didn’t challenge him, but encouraged him — is a foreign- and domestic-policy catastrophe. And in any catastrophe, one has to ask what were the conditions or causes that led to such a thing. Did the president tell Mr. Calderón ahead of time it would be okay to blast away at Arizona, which is to blast away at the United States? Or, less likely, was nothing said ahead of time and Mr. Calderón simply took note of the administration’s statements about Arizona thus far? Or, had Mr. Calderón simply observed over the past year not only President Obama and his administration’s take-down of Arizona but President Obama’s other attitudes about America, such as his bowing to foreign leaders and his calling America “arrogant,” “dismissive,” and “derisive” of our allies?"

Meanwhile, I note that many establishment types in the news media are claiming that there's no anti-government or anti-Democrat wave coming in November. No, no, they claim--instead, it's simply an anti-incumbent wave, to hit Dems and GOPers equally. They point for example to Arlen Specter's defeat, to the Democratic victory in the Pennsylvania House election the other night, etc. But Fred Barnes sets them straight today:
"After voting against the 80-year-old Mr. Specter in five elections dating back to 1980, a majority of Democratic voters in Pennsylvania couldn't bring themselves to vote for him yesterday. They didn't trust him....Nor was Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas forced into a runoff with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter yesterday because she's an incumbent. A bigger problem for her was a reputation as an unreliable vote for Democratic initiatives—Mr. Halter attacked her from the left—and polls consistently showed her badly trailing any Republican opponent. It's true that anti-incumbency was marginally responsible for the defeats recently of three-term Republican Sen. Robert Bennett of Utah and 14-term Democratic Rep. Alan Mollohan of West Virginia. Voters do at times get tired of elected officials. But Mr. Bennett lost chiefly because he was seen as having "gone Washington" and too eager to compromise with Democrats. Mr. Mollohan was defeated by a conservative opponent more in tune with the state's drift to the right over the past decade."

Meanwhile, prediction: in Arkansas, in the upcoming Democratic primary runoff between incumbent Blanche Lincoln and challenger Bill Halter? Halter will win.

Wednesday's wash

2010-05-19T10:18:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
White Sox 6, Tigers 2: the problems here were 1] Rick Porcello has been inconsistent; as a starting pitcher, he's just 3-4 this season, and yesterday gave up 4 runs in 7 innings; and 2] Detroit several times in this game failed to get a runner home from 3rd base with less than 2 outs. From the linked article:
"Detroit entered the game with a .475 success rate of scoring runners from third with less than two outs, leading just three teams in the category, according to STATS LLC."
That's got to improve.
But it was Rangers 8, Angels 7: the Rangers sweep a 2-game series against their division rivals. Now they play the Orioles and Cubs at home the rest of this week, and have a chance to do well. The key to the game last night was the Rangers' bullpen: after falling behind 7-3, the bullpen shut down the Angels for 4 and 2/3 innings...

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
So you hear a lot today about debt and debt crises--in Greece, in Britain, in the EU, in Europe as a whole. Why are they in so much debt? George Will today proposes an answer:
"It is said that, two decades after the end of Europe's East-West political division, there is a North-South cultural division. But Ireland's and, even more, Britain's debt problems refute that distinction. Britain's debt, Europe's worst, is the result of increasing government spending from 37 percent of GDP to 53 percent in a decade. The London Spectator says no other European nation "has expanded its government as quickly -- over this or any other decade in postwar history."

Meanwhile, sure enough, as we predicted here, Arlen Specter is done. In the end, it was his party switch--which looked to too many folks like opportunism--that did him in. Guess what--conservatives won't miss him...

And, sure enough again, in Connecticut, the Senate race there has greatly tightened--Democrat Richard Blumenthal is no longer a sure thing...

But in the Arizona Republican senatorial primary, I'm not seeing much movement there in the polls, as John McCain tries to hold off challenger J.D. Hayworth. Right now, I'm expecting McCain to survive...

And it was definitely disappointing to see Republicans lose that special election for John Murtha's old House seat in PA. If it's going to be a true huge Republican "wave" this fall, you'd expect the GOP to win races like that.

Yet another reason to avoid overconfidence, and to work like the dickens...
There was good news for the GOP last night in Arkansas, however:
"Will Bill Halter in Arkansas be the next outsider to win? It’s quite possible since Halter forced incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) into a June 8 run-off, with Lincoln getting just 45% to Halter’s 43% (and another candidate, D.C. Morrison, got a surprising 13%). In the physics of politics, you have to assume that much of the Morrison vote would end up going to the challenger Halter and not the incumbent Lincoln. In fact, according to our back-of-the-envelope math, Halter wins in a two-way if he gets only 60% of the Morrison vote. Organized labor and progressive groups are touting their active campaigning -- and millions of dollars -- for Halter. But the biggest winner in Arkansas last night was clearly John Boozman (R), who was able to avoid a run-off in the GOP’s crowded eight-candidate Senate primary by getting 53% of the vote. Folks, Boozman goes into the general election as the clear favorite to win this seat in November."

Meanwhile, Americans strike back against liberal health nazis:

"The Double Down [a chicken "sandwich" consisting of two chicken filets sandwiching bacon and cheese] came onto the market on April 12 and was supposed to have lasted about six weeks. But it tapped into Americans' fascination with quirky food and became a viral-marketing sensation. People posted videos of themselves eating the sandwich on sites like YouTube, and celebrities like Stephen Colbert gobbled it up.
KFC said it has been one of its most successful sandwich launches ever. Later this month, KFC expects to sell its 10 millionth Double Down. They cost about $5."

Tuesday's trackings

2010-05-18T05:31:00.001-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
The Tigers-White Sox game was rained out. Meanwhile, it was Rangers 4, Angels 3: another good start for Derek Holland. And set-up reliever Darren Oliver pitched two innings of shutout ball; he has an ERA of 1.74 for the season now. He's been important. It's important for the Rangers to beat the Angels; one still has the impression they'll be Texas' main competition for the division title...

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
Mona Charen makes an excellent point today, one that needs making more often. Many in the establishment complain that "nothing gets done", that Washington is "broken." Huh???:
"The Post regrets that this polarized electorate prevents “anything from getting done,” which is an odd complaint, given that, since the last election, we have witnessed an $800 billion stimulus bill, the federal acquisition of General Motors, a more than $1 trillion health-care bill, the multi-billion-dollar mortgage bailout, and the nation’s deliverance from the curse of salty food."

Meanwhile, what grand strategy is the Obama team adopting to do battle with the GOP in the midterm elections this year? Simple: attack Republicans...and Newsweek's Howard Fineman perhaps inadvertently lays out exactly what will be wrong with this approach:

"When he ran for president, Barack Obama's effervescent campaign was about hope, optimism, national unity, and, above all, the future. He offered a vision of a new world cooperatively shaped by a new generation. The message was mostly positive and upbeat...Two years later the president is tentatively unveiling the strategy he and fellow Democrats will pursue in this fall's election season, and it has a heavy dose of ... looking backward. It's going to be as much about history as hope, and more about attacking Republicans than promoting his own vision....Elections are always a game of comparison, but attack politics are not supposed to be part of the Obama brand, and they could be undercut by what Americans like best about him: his steady, genial calm."

Now sure, we know why the Obama White House is doing this. They think Republicans still aren't all that popular, and there's certainly poll numbers out there to back some of that up. But at the same time, this isn't the Obama who ran in 2008. This is attack politics, and employing it will make Obama look like any other politician. I question how much that will help him. He might get some of that mud on himself. And that will be good news for Republicans.

Some polling news:
Aha, here's some better news from that Florida senate race between Charlie Crist, Marco Rubio, and Kendrick Meek--the latest Rasmussen poll now has Rubio with an 8 point lead over turncoat Crist, 39-31. Maybe Florida GOPers are starting to rally to Rubio...
As for my picks today in some of the primary elections, I still think the biggest race is in Pennsylvania in the Democratic senatorial race, and I still like Sestak over Specter.

Meanwhile, in Connecticut, Democratic Senate candidate Richard Blumenthal has claimed in public statements in the past that he served in Vietnam--when in fact he didn't. Republicans are jumping on this. As they should. The Connecticut senate race was considered not long ago a shoo-in for Dems to win, given Blumenthal's popularity in that state. It no longer is. Get money and resources in there, NRCC...

The generic ballot for 2010 still looks pretty good for Republicans--both Gallup and Rasmussen show the GOP with a small lead.

Monday's musings

2010-05-15T09:11:00.000-07:00

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
So House Democrats in Washington aren't so happy with President Obama these days:
"[House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi and other House leaders told senior White House aides at a recent closed-door meeting that they felt the president was spending too much time bashing Washington without pointing the finger of blame at Republicans – a rhetorical nuance they argued could backfire by provoking voter anger at the party in charge in Congress."

From the point of view of a pure political technician, they're probably right.
What it makes me wonder is: why didn't President Obama and his people--you know, the ones who are supposed to be so brilliant and so smart--see this, too?
As I've said before, I don't think the Obama White House is nearly as smart as media types gave it credit for being when he was elected...

Meanwhile, over the weekend one wonders--is Arlen Specter still in the hunt to beat Joe Sestak in the PA senatorial primary?

Maybe. Tracking polls show him still about even. But still, go with Sestak if you're a bettin' man. When an incumbent--and that's what Specter is--is below 50% and has given up a huge lead to a challenger? That almost always spells doom.

By the way, another direction-of-the-country poll came out recently. And still, a significant majority of Americans see this country as being on the "wrong track"; the RCP average for this is 35% believing we're on the right track, 58% seeing us as on the wrong track.

That really hasn't changed during the Obama presidency much; another difficult sign for Obama in this election...that he's been in office for well over a year now, and yet most people still believe we're headed down the wrong path. Hmmm...

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers, 5, Red Sox 1: right now all is right with the world in Tiger-land; though, as is always the case with baseball, it can all disappear in the next series. But the Tigers have in the past couple of weeks won series from the Twins, Angels, Yankees, and Red Sox---all 2009 playoff teams. Good stuff. The Tigers' pitching has on the whole improved over the past couple of weeks...
Meanwhile the Rangers were swept over the weekend, losing yesterday 5-2 to Toronto. They hit into 4 double plays yesterday, had far too many strikeouts in general over the weekend...the Rangers are just 7-11 on the road so far this year.

Friday's fish fry

2010-05-14T09:57:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 6, Yankees 0: woo-hoo some more! The Tigers take 3 of 4 from the hated Yankees. That's always something to celebrate. The key factor from this week's games so far is the resurgence of the Tigers' starting pitchers. Rick Porcello, Jeremy Bonderman, and Justin Verlander all pitched very well; hopefully it's a sign of things to come, so the bullpen isn't overtaxed. And what can one say about Miguel Cabrera; he carries the Tigers' offense, and had another home run and a double yesterday.
And the Rangers beat the A's yesterday, 2-1 in 12 innings. Key stat: another excellent start for the Rangers from C.J. Wilson, who's ERA is now 1.48. He pitched 7 innings of one-hit ball.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
Indeed--you hear about Republicans battling each other, but Democrats?...:
"Given the obsessive coverage of the Republican "civil war," you may not realize Democrats are also feuding. Angry and disappointed that their president and Congress has not done more, the party's liberal base is throwing itself into the primaries, pushing the party to the left even as the country moves right. Ask Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln, who on Tuesday will fight to keep her party's nomination against progressive Bill Halter, the state's lieutenant governor. Also up for judgment that day is Sen. Arlen Specter. He has his new party's full financial backing. Recent polls nonetheless show the liberal Mr. Sestak within striking distance."

But in the eyes of the liberal establishment media, when conservative Republicans challenge incumbents in a GOP primary, it's an attempted "purge." Meanwhile, when liberal Democrats challenge incumbents in a Dem primary? That's just it--in the media's eyes, too often it's merely a "challenge" by those seeking to "shake up the status quo", etc etc etc.

In reality, it's called media bias.

Polling news:
In California, Dem Senator Barbara Boxer--very possibly in trouble in 2010.

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-05-13T13:30:00.000-07:00

Not too much time for blogging today, but here's a few quick items:

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
More good news for Republicans for the 2010 elections from the polling world:
"Republicans have solidified support among voters who had drifted from the party in recent elections, putting the GOP in position for a strong comeback in November’s mid-term campaign, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
The findings suggest that public opinion has hardened in advance of the 2010 elections, making it tougher for Democrats to translate their legislative successes, or a tentatively improving U.S. economy, into gains among voters. Republicans have reassembled their coalition by reconnecting with independents, seniors, blue-collar voters, suburban women and small town and rural voters—all of whom had moved away from the party in the 2006 elections, in which Republicans lost control of the House. Those voter groups now favor GOP control of Congress… The voters who said they were most interested in the November elections favor Republican control of Congress by a 20-point margin, with 56% backing the GOP and 36% backing Democrats—the highest gap all year on that question."

Just don't get cocky, GOP...

Meanwhile, in PA, don't change your bet--right now Suffolk has Sestak running away from Specter in the Dem senatorial primary there...

BASEBALL DIARY:
Yesterday, the Tigers split a doubleheader with the Yankees, winning game 1 2-0, but losing the second game 8-0. Still, not a bad day. In the first game, the big news was Rick Porcello--he pitched 7 strong innings of shutout ball. In the second game, the Yankees just had too much Phil Hughes.
Meanwhile it was Rangers 10, A's 1: the big story there is Derek Holland. He showed flashes of brilliance last year. This year he started out in the minors, largely to rehab from a spring training injury. He was dominant there; and he dominated last night, with 6 innings of shutout ball and 7 Ks. It was also nice to see Josh Hamilton and Vlad Guerrero go deep.

Wednesday's wash

2010-05-12T06:51:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
The Tigers/Yankees game of last night was rained out. Meanwhile, it was A's 7, Rangers 6, in 13 innings. Tough loss for the Rangers; they entered the 9th inning with a 4-3 lead. But closer Neftali Feliz couldn't hold it, and got hit fairly hard. The Rangers' slightly shaky closer situation continues to be one negative this season...

Meanwhile, the Oakland A's have a lot of guys you've never heard of, and a tremendous amount of youth. Yet they keep surprising us--they won series last week from a hot Texas team, a hot Tampa Bay Rays team, and Dallas Braden tossed a perfect game. Can they keep this up?

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
Supreme Court nominee update---
Did all of you know that Obama SC nominee Elena Kagan once said this?:
"Whether a given category of speech enjoys First Amendment protection depends upon a categorical balancing of the value of the speech against its societal costs."

Wow; a better entree to "speech codes", political correctness, and banning political speech with which one disagrees would be hard to find. Question this nominee very closely, Republicans.

By the way, remember ObamaCare? Democrats said that once it was passed, people would love it. Well, it's been a while now...and yet the RCP average shows that right now, on average, 41% approve...about 52% disapprove. Rasmussen's latest poll on it (of yesterday) only had 37% approving. Hmmm....

Even the NY Times acknowledges the tough position in which Arlen Specter now finds himself in Pennsylvania:
"One year after leaving the Republican Party in the face of crumbling support, Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania is now fighting to avert rejection — and presumably the end of his career — at the hands of Democrats. After seeming earlier this year to face an easy race for the Democratic nomination against Representative Joe Sestak, Mr. Specter is in what he acknowledges is an unexpectedly tough campaign, buffeted by a national anti-incumbent sentiment as well as resistance among Democrats wary of embracing a longtime Republican in next Tuesday’s primary."

Polls continue to show it close, and some important PA Democrats are cotinuing to back Specter. But I still say: Sestak to beat Specter in the primary.

A new Fox News poll has more good news for Republicans:
"If the Congressional election were held today, 42 percent of voters would back the Republican candidate in their district, while 40 percent would support the Democrat, according to the latest Fox News poll. Most Republicans (86 percent) back their party's candidate and most Democrats (80 percent) back theirs, and independents are divided. By 37-31 percent independent voters are somewhat more likely to back the Republican candidate, while 20 percent are undecided. A similar split is seen when the question is about voting in the 2012 presidential election: 41 percent would back Barack Obama, and 41 percent the Republican Party's candidate."

Again, remember that even a slight GOP lead in the generic ballot is big, huge good news for Republicans, due to the edge they will have this year in energy, enthusiasm, and turnout among voters.

There's also an opportunity for Republicans in 2012. Remember that Barack Obama will be tough to beat no matter what. He will be the incumbent. He's a good speaker, he's articulate, a good campaigner. But there is an opportunity, as his support had dropped since '08...

Tuesday's trackings

2010-05-11T13:43:00.000-07:00

VOICES OF MODERATION UPDATE:
This time from the Islamic extremist front:
"A Swedish artist who angered Muslims by depicting the Prophet Muhammad as a dog was assaulted Tuesday as angry protesters interrupted his university lecture about the limits of artistic freedom. Lars Vilks told The Associated Press a man in the front row ran up to him and head-butted him during the lecture, breaking his glasses but leaving him uninjured. It wasn't immediately clear what happened to the attacker.
A video clip of the incident on the website of a Swedish newspaper showed police using pepper spray and batons to hold off an angry crowd shouting "God is great" in Arabic after Vilks was escorted out of the lecture hall."

Have moderate Muslims around the world denounced this? They're out there. They need to make themselves heard.

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 5, Yankees 4: woo-hoo! A win over the Yankees is always encouraging. Key stats: Johnny Damon homered; he's been a big addition for the Tigers, with a .295 batting average, but also a .412 on-base percentage and a .455 slugging average. And Jose Valverde continues to save games..

Monday's musings

2010-05-10T14:38:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
The Texas Rangers had a great weekend, sweeping four games at home from the Royals and moving again into first place in the AL West. Yesterday's win was 6-4. There's still some worry over starter Scott Feldman. He lasted only 4 innings yesterday and still hasn't found his good stuff. But the Rangers' bullpen was very solid all series, shutting out KC over 5 innings yesterday.
The weekend for the Detroit Tigers meanwhile was just so-so, as they split two games in Cleveland. They lost yesterday's game, 7-4. Key stat: starter Max Scherzer again does poorly, and overall has an ERA of 14.54. Right now he's a weak link. The Tigers will need all their links to be strong as nails early this week, as they start a series with the Yankees.

In other sports-related news...
A U.S. Senator has nothing better to do, so...:
"Sen. Robert Menendez is urging the Major League Baseball Players' Association to boycott next year's All-Star Game in Phoenix over the recently passed Arizona law to crack down on illegal immigrants."

What would Sen. Menendez think if there was a call to boycott games in New York and New Jersey, due to those states' failure to crack down on the number of illegal immigrants to be found there? Let's hope Arizonans stand firm against this leftist pressure.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
Wow--the main tracking poll following the Pennsylvania senatorial primary among the Democrats now has Sestak up 5 over Specter. Looks like my pick was right...Specter looks done.
Meanwhile the latest generic congressional ballot polling hasn't changed things too much--the RCP average has the Republicans up by about half a point which, given GOP edges this year in turnout and enthusiasm, is still significant.

Friday's fish fry

2010-05-07T06:33:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Rangers 13, Royals 12: one of those nights, with the wind blowing out, etc. Not a good night for the Rangers' bullpen, which blew an 8 run lead. On the other hand, Josh Hamilton homered and now has 4 in his last 11 games...and Neftali Perez saved the game effectively in the 9th inning, striking out two of the three batters he faced.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:

In polling news, several things stand out today...
In Indiana, Republicans indeed are in a great position to take Evan Bayh's old senate seat. Dan Coats is now the GOP nominee; he leads Brad Ellsworth, who is the certain Democratic nominee, by 15 points.
In Ohio, Republicans did poorly there in 2008. But they've rallied. One example: in the Ohio governor's race, Republican John Kasich trails incumbent Governor Ted Strickland by only one point.
In the Pennsylvania Democratic senatorial primary, boy, do I ever stand by my prediction of Arlen Specter getting beat--the daily tracking poll there now has his race with Joe Sestak tied.
In Arkansas, yet more good news for Republicans--there, incumbent Dem Senator Blanche Lincoln trails her likely GOP opponent by a whopping 17 points.

And by the way, in Connecticut--in the senate race there, Democrats were supposed to have that one locked up when Chris Dodd retired, and the state's attorney general, the popular Richard Blumenthal, decided to run in his place. He once led Republican contender Linda McMahon by over 30 points, for example. But look now--he has not run a good campaign, has been wooden on the stump, and his lead over McMahon is down to just 13 points; he's taken nearly a 20 point slide in the polls. In my opinion he's still a favorite to win; but not a lock.

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-05-06T13:01:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Twins 5, Tigers 4: once again the Tigers are done in by errors allowing in two runs, a poor start by Rick Porcello, and...the fact that the Twins are probably just the better team this year.
A's 4, Rangers 1: after playing well for most of their road trip, the Rangers seem to go AWOL in this final game of it. The Rangers still aren't hitting like they can...

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
In Pennsylvania, in the latest tracking poll of the Democratic senatorial primary between Specter and Sestak, the challenger is within 5 points of our old friend Arlen. I repeat my pick: Specter will lose that primary.

Meanwhile in Florida, a Mason-Dixon poll confirms what Rasmussen showed the other day--in the 3-way race, Charlie Crist has a small lead over Rubio. Darn! I see Jeb Bush strongly endorsed Rubio a day or two ago. Let's see if that, and the passage of some time, moves the numbers soon...

Wednesday's wash

2010-05-05T08:20:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Twins 4, Tigers 3: a tough loss. Credit the Twins for making huge plays in the 9th inning to win the game. Not a great offensive night for the Tigers--key stat: they forced Twins' starter Nick Blackburn to throw only 85 pitches through 8 innings.
A's 7, Rangers 6: another tough loss. Key stat in this one: Rangers' starter Scott Feldman still hasn't quite found it this year; he gave up 7 runs in the 7 innings he pitched, though he did retire the final 12 men he faced. Feldman won 17 games last year; the Rangers are counting on him.

And there's sad news today in baseball--Hall of Fame broadcaster, radio voice of the Detroit Tigers for 42 years, Ernie Harwell has died. He was 92. I grew up in western Michigan, one of those millions of boys who grew up in this state listening to the Tigers and therefore...to Ernie. Just thinking of him makes me think of those warm, summer nights, and how much enjoyment he gave us. This piece today in the Detroit News has it right:
"He became the foundation of baseball in Michigan. He taught the game to a million or more youngsters from Monroe to Iron Mountain, down into Ohio, and across into Ontario. Because of him, and his voice, they learned to understand baseball. They learned to love the sport. They learned to respect it."

Amen. That was certainly true for me. RIP, Ernie.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
The Times Square Bomber:
Victor Davis Hanson of NRO has what is, so far, the most penetrating insight in the wake of the incident:
"...we are doing our darnedest to playact that radical Muslims who are trying to kill us are not trying to kill us; and two, we are not seeing a lot of peaceful blowback from the virtual closing of Guantanamo, the virtual trial of KSM, the reach out in the Al Arabiya interview, the "reset" rhetoric, the Cairo speech, and the apology tour — 2009 saw the most terrorism attempts since 2001."

Some on the left will undoubtedly claim that Obama hasn't yet been in office long enough to effect change. But he's been there over a year. His statements get unprecedented play not just in this country, but around the world. Extremist jihadists know exactly what Obama's about. They are not impressed. Don't say conservatives didn't warn you...

Big news today in 2010 election news: David Obey, a powerful and long-serving Democratic congressman from Wisconsin, announces today that he won't run again.
It appears Rep8blicans have an aggressive candidate in place there; could be another GOP pickup...

Tuesday's trackings

2010-05-04T11:40:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Twins 10, Tigers 4: unfortunately another bad start for Max Scherzer, who gives up 10 runs on 8 hits in 4 innings. Thanks to that, the Tigers trailed 7-0 after two innings. That was the story of the game...
But...Rangers 4, A's 2: the Rangers have won 4 in a row. And the most welcome news for them was the excellent start they received from Rich Harden, who struck out 9 and allowed only 2 hits. That's the Harden the Rangers expected, and need, to see...

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
On the illegal immigration front--
I think Mona Charen has it right today when she advises Republicans to maintain their principles but, at the same time, not fall into Hispanic-bashing:
"Republicans who favor strong measures to limit illegal immigration should not sacrifice their principles to truckle for votes. But neither should they blindly blunder into a political wilderness for lack of finesse. Republicans must take care to couch their opposition to illegal immigration in the overall context of welcoming legal immigrants and appreciating the contribution of immigrants overall. Recruiting Hispanic candidates ought to be a high priority."

Most of our ancestors were LEGAL immigrants to this country. Mine certainly were. Of course then we have no problem with legal immigration. Let's make sure that fundamental gets put out there, conservatives...

Meanwhile, yet more polling info finds that Americans support the Arizona law:
"A majority of the people polled, 57 percent, said the federal government should determine the laws addressing illegal immigration. But 51 percent said the Arizona law was “about right” in its approach to the problem. Thirty-six percent said it went too far and 9 percent said it did not go far enough."

Polling news:
This is a little troubling for conservatives--in the first Florida Rasmussen poll taken since Charlie Crist declared that he'd run for the senate as an independent, it shows Crist leading Rubio by 4 points, 38-34.

One hopes all Florida Republicans will come home to Rubio after the party primary; I suspect they haven't all done so yet.

Meanwhile, in the Pennsylvania Democratic senatorial primary, I'm now ready to predict it: Sestak will upset Specter and gain the Dem nomination. Every poll shows Sestak having gained at least 10 points, if not more, over the past month or two, and closing to within 10 points and less of Specter. Candidates closing like that, consistently over a good length of time, often win.

Monday's musings

2010-05-03T08:15:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers sweep the Angels over the weekend, winning yesterday 5-1 to cap it. The Tigers' rookies play well. For the most part, they get good pitching. Yesterday's key stat was this: Justin Verlander at one point retires 23 batters in a row. That's our ace...
But the Rangers sweep their weekend series too, capping it yesterday with a 3-1 win in 11 innings. Partly the key stat over the weekend was Seattle's anemic offense--they scored only 4 runs in 3 games. But the Rangers' pitching is improved; their staff ERA right now is top 5 in the league, at 3.48.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
Arizona, illegal immigration, and the coming backlash against the left:
Ralph Peters has it about right today:
" American and European leftists share the conviction that the immigrant, legal or illegal, is always right -- and the native-born citizen's always wrong. This bigotry toward the law-abiding American, Brit, Frenchman or Italian doesn't help the immigrant in the end. Instead, it's a powerful engine driving divisiveness...the left's blame-game is identical: Anyone who doesn't elevate the "rights" of the immigrant over the rights, safety and desires of the citizen is a bigot. No exceptions. Could there be a formula better designed to excite anti-immigrant sentiment?"

In the latest polling news, first we go to Pennsylvania, where recent polling for the Democratic senatorial primary between Sestak and Specter reminds us of something: Arlen Specter might not even be the Democratic nominee for the senate.

Friday's fish fry

2010-04-30T06:35:00.000-07:00

NBA DIARY:
...and this will be the final one of the year: San Antonio 97, Dallas 87--the Mavs are out. I think what did them in was: 1] consistently getting off to slow starts in games in this series. Game 6 last night was the best example, when they scored only 8 points in the first quarter. But they did that several other times. Teams have to come out with energy; they can't put themselves in a hole. 2] I don't think the Mavs' defense was ever quite what they needed it to be all season. 3] San Antonio was better than people gave them credit for, and was playing well at the end of the season. 4] San Antonio's George Hill, relatively unknown before this series, became the X factor. He had 29 points in game 4, and 21 points in game 6. It's going to be a long off-season for Dallas...

BASEBALL DIARY:
Detroit 3, Minnesota 0: a series win for the Tigers over the Twins; very nice, and kind of a rare thing. Biggest stat for the Tigers: Dontrelle Willis gets the win, pitches 6 innings plus, allows no runs. Huge. If he can be a factor, so can the Tigers. It helped too, however, that the Twins did not start either Mauer or Morneau in this game...
White Sox 7, Rangers 5: the key in this game was the 7th inning, when walks, errors, and wild pitches turned a 3-1 Rangers lead into a 5-3 deficit. The Rangers had a chance to sweep the series. It's disappointing that it got away. Ian Kinsler rejoins the team this weekend. He needs to provide a spark...

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
So in Florida, Charlie Crist will indeed run for the Senate now as an independent. Er, why, exactly is he running? He has no coherent explanation:
"Employing a bizarre logic that would suggest he doesn't understand the nature of either primary elections or the two-party architecture from which he has benefited immensely over his career, Crist said that whether he wins or loses should be decided by the whole of the Florida electorate. "It's not one club's decision or another — or even a club within that club. . . .That's why we go straight to November."

Funny--he never seemed to have a problem with Republican primary elections before this. Marco Rubio has it exactly right:
"That’s not what this is about at all," Rubio told ABC News's Terry Moran in an interview that will air tonight. "In fact, this has nothing to do with ideas or principles or ideology; it's about, quite frankly, political convenience. It's about someone who wants to continue his career in politics and doesn't believe he can do that this year within the Republican party."

And this is what conservatives must hammer on here--Crist is doing this for no good reason of policy or principle. He simply wants higher office. It's all about his own ambition. I think the people of Florida will reject his unprincipled actions...

In polling news, Republicans continue to look good with Mike Castle in the Delaware Senate race...

...in the Illinois Senate race with Mark Giannoulias...

...and probably in Indiana, where Dan Coats appears to have a solid lead over the likely Democratic senate candidate, Brad Ellsworth. This would be to replace the retiring Democrat Evan Bayh.

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-04-29T12:25:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 11, Twins 6: an important win against a good team. Key stat: just that Detroit scored 11 runs. So far, offensively, they've done fairly well.
Rangers 6, White Sox 5: the Rangers have now won 4 of 6. Key stats: a long home run for Josh Hamilton. He's starting to hit. Ranger starter Rich Harden was a bit wild still, but made it through 6 innings. Despite all the Rangers' injuries (Ian Kinsler out, Nelson Cruz out), the team hangs in.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
More bad news for our friends on the left. They claimed ObamaCare would become popular once the bill passed. It hasn't happened. On Arizona's immigration bill, they've roared that it's an example of Nazism and fascism. Once again, the American people don't agree--a Gallup Poll says 51% of Americans support it, only 39% opposed.

In other polling news, in Nevada, Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid's senate campaign is still going nowhere---polls show him stuck at around 40% and trailing every likely challenger by around 10 points.

Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas remains in similar hot water.

Polls on the Republican primary in Arizona's senatorial election are all over the place. One poll has John McCain up over J.D. Hayworth by 26 points. Another has him only up by 11. McCain certainly can't rest easy yet. But I'd still make him a clear favorite in that one.

Wednesday's wash

2010-04-28T08:23:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Twins 2, Tigers 0: a lot was made of Detroit's shoddy defense last night; a couple of errors led to Minnesota's two runs. But the key last night was Twins pitcher Francisco Liriano, who pitched a masterpiece and shut the Tigers down. The good news for the Tigers: Justin Verlander pitched well. Right now the Twins look unbeatable in the Central division.
Rangers 4, White Sox 2: the big story here is Ranger starter C.J. Wilson. A reliever the last several years, last year the set-up man for closer Frankie Francisco, Wilson is now a starter, pitched well last night, and has a 1.75 ERA so far this year. The Rangers need all the starters they can get...

NBA DIARY:
Dallas 103, San Antonio 81: the key stat for the game was this--Caron Butler had 35 points. Dirk Nowitzki had just 15, but that's OK; the Mavs can't rely on only one player. If Butler and others are scoring, then the Spurs' relentless double-teaming of Dirk won't be effective. The Mavs need to come with the same drive and energy tomorrow night in San Antonio that they displayed last night...

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
Hmmm...so ABC News/Washington Post comes out today with a poll that, on the generic congressional ballot question, would seem to present some bad news for Republicans, showing the Democrats with a 5 point, 48-43 lead there.

That's strange, and very incconsistent with the findings of other recent generic ballot polls. What gives? Ah, but I think Jim Geraghty over at NRO has it figured out:
"The poll’s partisan split comes out 34 percent Democrat, 23 percent Republican, 38 percent independent. The CNN exit poll on Election Day 2008 put the split at 39 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican, 29 percent independent. Is the partisan split on Election Day 2010 really going to be more favorable to the Democrats than 2008 was?"

Answer: no. In other words, Republicans are very under-represented in this poll, hence its skewed results. But we'll keep watching the polling on this question and see if anything backs up the Post/ABC findings...

Meanwhile, in the Arizona governor's race, there's no sign the new immigration law there is unpopular; incumbent Governor Jan Brewer, who just signed the bill and was shown trailing in the polls before that, has now, according to Rasmussen, shot out to an 8 point lead in the race.

Tuesday's trackings

2010-04-27T12:44:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 8, Rangers 6: the Tigers conclude a 5-6 road trip with a win, and a split of their series in Texas. Best stats of the night for the Tigers: Jeremy Bonderman's quality start, along with Brandon Inge hitting the ball hard, very hard, every time up (including two home runs). Maybe his slump is over. The Rangers have to be worried about Neftali Perez's abilities as a closer.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
Still much huffing and puffing about the new Arizona immigration law. Critics (the same critics who scream and yell about Tea Party protesters being too loud, extreme, and intemperate) now scream and yell that the law is Nazi, fascist, etc. George Will today sets them straight:
"It is passing strange for federal officials, including the president, to accuse Arizona of irresponsibility while the federal government is refusing to fulfill its responsibility to control the nation's borders. Such control is an essential attribute of national sovereignty. America is the only developed nation that has a 2,000-mile border with a developing nation, and the government's refusal to control that border is why there are an estimated 460,000 illegal immigrants in Arizona and why the nation, sensibly insisting on first things first, resists "comprehensive" immigration reform. Arizona's law makes what is already a federal offense -- being in the country illegally -- a state offense. Some critics seem not to understand Arizona's right to assert concurrent jurisdiction. The Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund attacks Gov. Jan Brewer's character and motives, saying she "caved to the radical fringe." This poses a semantic puzzle: Can the large majority of Arizonans who support the law be a "fringe" of their state?"

In other news, even James Carville's Democratic pollsters over at Democracy Corps have Republicans leading the 2010 generic ballot.

Monday's musings

2010-04-26T08:32:00.000-07:00

NBA DIARY:
Tough weekend--San Antonio 92, Dallas 89: the Mavs now trail 3-1 in the series. Just seems to me that San Antonio has wanted it a bit more, ever since game 2. They've hustled, made big shots, and it seems like every since the game 2 loss, the Mavs have quickly gotten tight when adversity hits. Big expectations can do that to you. Dallas can't do anything now except win game 5, and go from there.

BASEBALL DIARY:
The Tigers lose 2 of 3 over the weekend to the Rangers, including yesterday's 8-4 loss. The Tigers' problem right now is simple--their starting pitchers aren't getting it done. Yesterday Rick Porcello gave up 6 runs and 10 hits in only 4 innings. They must improve. The Rangers should be encouraged meanwhile that they've won 3 of 4, their bats are waking up, and Ian Kinsler should return soon from injury.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
Apparently President Obama is worried enough about the coming 2010 midterms to make a big push, starting now:
"Obama plans to issue a call-to-action video message to his supporters on Monday, the first in a series of personal efforts designed to rekindle the grass-roots magic that propelled him to the presidency in service to his party's congressional and gubernatorial candidates, Democratic officials said."

Apparently the Dems think they can motivate enough folks to get them over the top in November. Well--we'll watch the polls and see if there's any movement.

Certainly there's plenty of reasons for Obama to be worried. In the state of Washington, it's evident that Dem Senator Patty Murray remains in trouble in her 2010 re-election bid.

The news media's liberal bias, example # 123,456:
Caught by the guys at PowerLine: CNN describes Arizona's new immigration law as "polarizing." Funny--they never described President Obama and the Democrats' health reform bill in that manner. Wonder why not???

Speaking of which, that new Arizona immigration law has made AZ's governor, Jan Brewer, a big name even to the NY Times:
"...what is accepted as the country’s most stringent immigration enforcement law, allowing the local police to stop and check the immigration papers of noncitizens and making it a state crime not to have them, was making its way through the Legislature. Legislators said Ms. Brewer, who is seeking a full term, was long prepared to sign such a bill, and her closest opponents in the primary all backed it. But her staff members hashed over the details with Senator Russell Pearce, a Republican who has made driving illegal immigrants out of the state his passion.
Though not closely allied with Mr. Pearce, she took up his mantra that the law would help the police weed out criminals. “Border-related violence and crime due to illegal immigration are critically important issues to the people of our state,” she said on Friday after signing the immigration bill. “We cannot sacrifice our safety to the murderous greed of drug cartels. We cannot stand idly by as drop houses, kidnappings and violence compromise our quality of life.”

Look for immigration to be a major issue now in the country for some weeks to come, especially given that President Obama dissed the Arizona law quite publicly.

Friday's fish fry

2010-04-23T06:38:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Finally--Rangers 3, Red Sox 0: the Rangers win for the first time in a week. But maybe this will get them going. The team got an excellent start from C.J. Wilson.
Tigers 5, Angels 4: a big win for the Tigers. They salvage in split in Anaheim against a tough club. Justin Verlander struggles, but gives his team a chance to win. Key stat: Tiger relievers have now tossed 15 and 2/3 scoreless innings in a row. And the bullpen won this game, holding a 1-run lead for 4 innings...

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
Republican Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey is fast becoming a conservative hero. Here's why:
"Faced with an $11 billion hole in a $30 billion budget, Christie used his broad constitutional discretion (New Jersey’s is arguably the most powerful governorship in the Union) to wield not a scalpel or an axe, but a scalpel the size of an axe against a Trenton machine rivaled only by Chicago and Albany in sheer size and scope.
As part of his efforts, he cut state aid to school districts by about 5 percent of their total budgets. Predictably, as school boards across the state pondered cutting programs like music and athletics to make up for the shortfall, the powerful New Jersey Education Association and its affiliates raged at the prospect of layoffs, even though new teacher hires in the state have grown far faster than enrollment, and have continued to grow even as the rest of the economy shed jobs. “Think of the children!” the unions cried. But Christie called the bluff, promising to restore aid for districts whose staffs agreed to one-year pay freezes (not even cuts mind you, much less permanent ones) and to pay 1.5 percent of their salary into their exorbitant benefits packages (the vast majority currently pay 0 percent)."

A conservative who not only talks about bloated government--but does something about. Good for him.

A good point on immigration policy--from Charles Krauthammer:
"...the problem is ultimately that the feds haven't acted. What liberals don't understand who support the rights of illegals in the country is that if the American people had a sense that the borders are secure, they are shut — if we built a fence all the way, and we can — and they had a sense this is the last cohort of illegals (the ten or so million already here) — the majority of Americans including me would be in favor of amnesty. If that’s the last group who are coming in and the border is shut, that would be OK. The problem is that in the absence of any seriousness on the part of the feds to do something like that — two-thirds, three-quarters of the border is unsecured, does not have that fence — people see a revolving door, so that there’ll be an endless entry of illegal immigrants who know that after a decade or two, there’s going to be an amnesty – it’ll start all over again..."

There has got to be a real attempt to secure our borders. It's not about being mean to or punishing recent immigrants, illegal or otherwise. But our borders must be secure, and I think, put that way, most Americans will agree with that. Keep pushing this, conservatives.

In polling news, more good news for Republicans:
"The advantage in public support the Democratic Party built up during the latter part of the Bush administration and the early part of the Obama administration has all but disappeared. During the first quarter of 2010, 46% of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, while 45% identified as or leaned Republican."

On the other hand, all this does is get Republicans back to where they were in 2006. As others have said, the GOP still needs to close the sale, and convince more folks they're a better alternative than the Dems. Still work to do there...

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-04-22T12:20:00.000-07:00

NBA DIARY:
San Antonio 102, Dallas 88: so the series is tied at 1-1. The Mavs lose home-court advantage. Mavs fans have to be upset that San Antonio out-hustled Dallas last night. Key stat: the Spurs had 23 second-chance points; the Mavs only 9. Dirk was cold. So were the Mavs. The only bright spot: this year, when it's come to big games on the road, the Mavs have pretty consistently played well. They'll need to do that this weekend. I think they will.

BASEBALL DIARY:
Red Soz 8, Rangers 7 (12 innings): the Rangers are just in a bad rut. They've now lost 6 straight. Again last night they blew a lead, this time of 4 runs.
But it was also Tigers 4, Angels 3: the Tigers edge back over the .500 mark. They got a decent start from Jeremy Bonderman, and Jose Valverde pitched a perfect 9th inning for the save. Once again Miguel Cabrera got some big hits. They're hanging in there...

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
There's a new FOX poll out. Nothing surprising, which is good news for Republicans.
President Obama's approval rating is only at 46%.
FOX also has Republicans leading in the generic 2010 congressional ballot, by 4.

Wednesday's wash

2010-04-21T08:10:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Not so good...Red Sox 7, Rangers 6: the Rangers steal 9 bases, have loads of men on via hits and walks...but wasted many scoring opportunities. And the bullpen failed, failing to hold a 3-run lead in the late innings. A tough start for the Rangers...
Angels 6, Tigers 5: the Tigers didn't play a horrible game, making a nice rally from a 6-0 deficit. But they couldn't get over the hump. Not helping here is that the Tigers are playing the Angels at a bad time; LA has now won 5 in a row.

NFL NEWS:
Wow--so Ben Roethlisberger is suspended for 6 games by the NFL today.

That surprises me a bit; and I almost wonder if the league is going a bit far. After all, Roethlisberger is not charged with any crime; other players suspended by the league, players whom we all agreed SHOULD be suspended, either had been charged or had admitted to criminal activity. One hopes the commissioner isn't under the impression that he had to be tough on Big Ben because Roethlisberger is white, and many players suspended previously were black. Allowing racial identity politics to influence this in any way is wrong.

On the other hand, Ben R needed a kick in the backside; details like the following make that clear:
"The NFL and the Steelers were angered and embarrassed by the tawdry details of Roethlisberger’s night out March 3. In a statement to police, the 20-year-old college student said Roethlisberger encouraged her, and her friends, to take numerous shots of alcohol. Then one of his bodyguards escorted her into a hallway at the Capital City nightclub in Milledgeville, Ga., sat her on a stool and left. She said Roethlisberger walked down the hallway and exposed himself. “I told him it wasn’t ok, no, we don’t need to do this and I proceeded to get up and try to leave,” she said. “I went to the first door I saw, which happened to be a bathroom.” According to her statement, Roethlisberger then followed her into the bathroom and shut the door."

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
You know, we have to admit that in 2008, Barack Obama achieved something that really was remarkable: he became the first Democrat to carry the state of Indiana in a presidential contest in ten presidential elections. Not since 1964 had a Democrat (Lyndon Johnson) carried Indiana in a presidential race. And yet, and yet...it is a sign, now, of how far Mr. Obama has slipped when we see how far his star has fallen in the Hoosier state:
"The last two polls from Rasmussen have found his ratings down dramatically among Hoosiers. Last month’s poll found that “just 39 percent of voters in the state now approve of the job he is doing as president . . . Sixty percent disapprove of his job performance, including 47 percent who strongly disapprove.” Two of Indiana’s House Democrats, Joe Donnelly and Baron Hill, are sweating their chances for reelection (and some have wondered whether veteran congressman Pete Visclosky should be sweating, too), while the GOP is expected to retain its current four seats easily."

Meanwhile, over at MSNBC Chris Matthews is becoming either unhinged, badly confused, or both. See what he said the other day concerning Charlie Crist:

"...what happens to Republicans who don't march to the right wing tune? Well they're getting purged. This is Stalin-esque, this stuff...it seems to me we're getting into something here that I do think is particularly nasty. Chuck says there's precedence, and there may well be, but here you see a party basically pruning itself. Going around and saying, "Well we really don't like Arlen Specter. You go find something else to do. Go be a Democrat." We see this with Charlie Crist perhaps being given the boot."

Ugh. How to untangle such a mess? Look, no one in the Republican Party is demanding that Charlie Crist leave the GOP. But the fact is, he's running in a primary against another Republican candidate and...wow...Republican voters like the other guy, Marco Rubio, BETTER. What--are we bound to vote for incumbents like Crist or Arlen Specter forever? Are we forbidden to decide that maybe we prefer someone else?? And in any case, it's not GOPers who are booting Crist out. It's Crist, simply because he's about, apparently, to lose an election, deciding that HE is going to boot HIMSELF from the Republican Party. Because HE is choosing to do that, therefore Republicans are "Stalin-esque"???

That's just ridiculous.

In other polling news---yes, it's confirmed yet again: no bounce for Obama or the Democrats from the passage of ObamaCare. Quinnipiac reports that Obama's approval rating right now is only at 44%.
And only 39% of Americans approve of ObamaCare; 53% oppose it.

I'm a little surprised these findings gained so much mention this morning; in this space we've been tracking exactly these trends for weeks now. I guess it's always important to continue to get confirmation...

Tuesday's trackings

2010-04-20T11:58:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Angels 2, Tigers 0: what you worried about with the Tigers was their offense...and that worry seems a bit well-founded right now. No big hits last night. Only good sign: Dontrelle Willis pitched well.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
Ramesh Ponnuru today reminds us of something very important--the first steps towards repealing ObamaCare have already been taken:
"The first steps toward the repeal of Obamacare have already occurred. First, the legislation passed without leading to a lasting improvement in the president’s or the Democrats’ approval ratings. Second, in part as a result, it has quickly become Republican-party orthodoxy that the new health-care legislation needs to be repealed and replaced with conservative reforms. Two Republican senators who seemed to throw cold water on repeal, John Cornyn of Texas and Bob Corker of Tennessee, promptly clarified that they support the goal."

Let's keep going.

Meanwhile, in Florida, it's now definite--Charlie Crist has let the NY Times know that he's seriously considering running for the Senate in Florida as an independent.
My guess? Obviously he has the right to do anything he wants, but in the end, this won't be a good thing for him. He'll simply look like a sore loser, which he is--he'll run as an independent because he's getting clobbered in the race for the Republican senatorial nomination by Marco Rubio. This will kill him with the Republican Party for all time. He won't win the race as an independent, meanwhile, no matter what polls say now. Republicans will unite behind Rubio once the primary is done. And Democrats in Florida don't like Crist much; and that would be the only way he'd win in the fall, by getting significant Democratic support (just as Lieberman won in Connecticut with Republican votes). But Crist won't get the crossovers. He'll just get political oblivion. Maybe that's what he deserves.

Republicans and conservatives need to unite behind Marco Rubio, who by all accounts appears to be a good solid conservative candidate; and let Mr. Crist know that's just what they're doing.

No major changes in the way 2010 looks right now, by the way--both Gallup and Rasmussen came out with polls on the generic ballot yesterday, and Gallup still has the GOP leading, with Rasmussen having Republicans up by a whopping 10 points.

Monday's musings

2010-04-19T08:38:00.000-07:00

A lot of important sports happening this weekend...
NBA DIARY:
Dallas 100, San Antonio 94: Dirk Nowitzki is a big star in this league, but I don't think he gets all the ink he should. He was 12 of 14 from the floor in this game, scored 36, powered a 7-0 run in the 2nd half all on his own, and was a key factor in Dallas winning this one. It also helped that the Mavs out-rebounded San Antonio, something hard for them to do...but something that makes them even harder to beat when they do it.

BASEBALL DIARY:
Meanwhile, it was a tough weekend for the Texas Rangers--they lost 5-2 yesterday to the New York Yankees, and were swept over the weekend. To me the key was that Yankee starting pitching just overmatched the Rangers all weekend--yesterday it was Andy Pettite, the day before it was A.J. Burnett, and before that it was C. C. Sabathia. All are pitching well. And the old cliche is right--good pitching beats good hitting most of the time...
The Detroit Tigers lost 2 of 3 over the weekend to Seattle; but did salvage yesterday's finale with a 4-2 win. The Tigers got an excellent start from Max Scherzer; a good sign. Once again Miguel Cabrera provided most of the offense with a 3-run homer.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
Yes, the Obama administration passed their health insurance bill...but the American people still don't love it, nor do they love activist government in general:
"By almost every conceivable measure, Americans are less positive and more critical of their government these days. There is a perfect storm of conditions associated with distrust of government—a dismal economy, an unhappy public, and epic discontent with Congress and elected officials. These are among the principal findings from a new series of Pew Research Center surveys. Rather than an activist government to deal with the nation's top problems, these surveys show that the general public now wants government reformed and a growing number want its power curtailed. With the exception of greater regulation of Wall Street, there is less of an appetite for government solutions to the nation's problems—including greater government control over the economy—than there was when Barack Obama first took office."

No wonder both Gallup and Rasmussen today have President Obama's job approval at only 48%.

Friday's fish fry

2010-04-16T06:34:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Indians 3, Rangers 2: the Rangers had an excellent chance to sweep this series, leading 2-0 in the bottom of the 8th. But Indian pitcher David Huff held them down to only 2 runs; and then the Rangers bobbled two balls, allowing 2 runners on, and Shin-soo Choo made them pay with a 3-run homer. Shows how important defense and maintaining focus can be in this game...
The Rangers now have to go and play the powerful Yankees in New York. Let's see how they bounce back.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
In 2010 elections news, Harry Reid remains in big trouble--still down by about 10 points in the latest poll.
Same-same for Arkansas Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln, according to the latest polls.

And here's yet another polling outfit which shows Republicans leading the 2010 generic congressional ballot (this time by 5 points).

By the way, even Chuck Todd and the political folks at MSNBC, always a good bellwether for elite media opinion, and in the midst of trying to defend the president, still admit that Obama's numbers in the wake of the passage of the health insurance bill haven't rebounded:
"...is Obama really struggling with an approval rating near 50%, especially considering unemployment is at 10% and his predecessor’s approval rating was in the 20s and 30s his final couple of years in office? The president's approval rating has been static for about nine months now. That said, the fact that there wasn't movement UPWARD is clearly a concern for the folks at the White House; they did think there would be some bounce post-health care."

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-04-15T11:58:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Royals 7, Tigers 3: the Tigers lose two of three to KC and really don't play well the entire series. Yesterday, the keys were failures to get big hits with runners in scoring position, and mediocre-to-worse pitching. The Tigers give up 22 runs in 3games to...the Royals. Not good. As a fan, one is glad Detroit remains 6-3 on the season, but they can play much better.
Meanwhile--Rangers 6, Indians 2: the Rangers are playing better. Josh Hamilton, Chris Davis, and Elvis Andrus are hitting well. Colby Lewis, who spent some major time in Japan and hadn't won a major league game since 2004, had an excellent start--he struck out 10. Ranger pitching is looking all right.

POLITICS/LEGISLATION UPDATE DEPT:
So where does ObamaCare stand? Is it striking a chord with the American people, as liberals promised? As we've been documenting, nooooooo:
"Obamacare has not won the people’s hearts and minds. Despite wildly positive media coverage and the triumphant White House signing ceremony, surveys find public support for the new law dropping like a stone. Support in the most recent CBS poll has fallen to a dismal 32 percent, with opposition up to a new high of 53 percent. The same trend was apparent in polls conducted by Fox News and Rasmussen. Nearly six of every ten voters now support outright repeal, according to the most recent Rasmussen survey. The polls reveal that frustration is particularly acute among political independents. Over half of the independents in the CBS poll, for example, thought the new law would increase their health-care costs; only 13 percent thought their costs would come down. Similarly, 42 percent expect Obamacare to deliver lower-quality care; only 13 percent expect it to deliver better care. By six to one (67–11 percent) they dismiss outright the claims by the president and Hill leaders that the new law will cut federal deficits."

That the bill's popularity has sunk to 32% surprises even me.

And then there's all the tax increases coming from the Obama administration. Did you know:
"House Ways and Means Committee Republicans have issued a summary of the 25 tax increases signed into law by Mr. Obama so far. They total $670 billion over the next 10 years, including 14 tax hikes (including an annual tax on every insurance policy and an annual tax on brand-name drugs) that break Mr. Obama's solemn 2008 campaign pledge never to raise taxes on families making less than $250,000 a year. Many of these taxes are part of the ObamaCare monstrosity. New levies on investment, drugs, medical devices and insurance policies eventually will hit ordinary Americans, and the public knows it. A late March Fox News poll asked, "If major health care reform legislation is passed, do you think your taxes will increase, decrease or stay about the same?" Seventy-five percent think their taxes will increase."

The tax issue always helps Republicans.

Wednesday's wash

2010-04-14T08:31:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 6, Royals 5: once again Detroit gets to KC's bullpen, overcoming a 5-0 lead. The good: this team can come back. Austin Jackson, the Tigers' rookie centerfielder, continues to play well and get big hits. Joel Zumaya and Jose Valverde of the Tigers' bullpen shut the door once Detroit got a lead. But Dontrelle Willis didn't pitch well. Let's hope it's just a blip.

POLITICS/LEGISLATION UPDATE DEPT:
Wow---George W. Bush catching Obama in the polls???:
"Fascinating numbers from Public Policy Polling: "Americans are now pretty evenly divided about whether they would rather have Barack Obama or George W. Bush in the White House. 48% prefer Obama while 46% say they would rather have the old President back. Bush had atrocious approval ratings for his final few years in office, particularly because he lost a lot of support from Republicans and conservative leaning independents... These numbers suggest some peril for Democrats in making Bush a focus of their messaging this fall. A lot of folks who contributed to the former President's low level of popularity now like Obama even less."

That not only should impact how we view possible tactics in the 2010 races...but the entire 2010 race itself. Democrats may be in more trouble than anyone thinks.

In other polling news, two different polls--Susquehanna and Rasmussen--have conservative Pat Toomey with a 10 point lead over Arlen Specter.
It would give conservatives a great deal of satisfaction to see Mr. Specter defeated. I must admit that the possibility of it happening is, er, rather exciting...

Meanwhile, on the question of the generic congressional ballot, some liberal acquaintances of mine got excited the other day when CNN had Democrats leading that, 50-46. But...a GWU/Battleground poll out today has Republicans up 1. And overall, the RCP average has Republicans up 2.5. Still looking awfully good...

Tuesday's trackings

2010-04-13T12:04:00.000-07:00

NFL NEWS:
So Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, in the wake of his latest scandal, won't be prosecuted...but will be meeting privately with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell.

I guess one has to agree with the decision not to prosecute. Looks like it couldn't be proven beyond a reasonable doubt that Roethlisberger committed a crime. And I doubt the commissioner will suspend him, either, and perhaps that shouldn't happen, either; the standard over the past few years for NFL players has not been to suspend in this kind of circumstance. But if I was Goodell, I'd give Big Ben a stern talking-to, and I'd make it public that I did just that. The guy's an NFL celebrity, a public figure, a two-time Super Bowl winner. What he does reflects on the league. And what was he doing that night in Georgia. Bar-hopping, picking up girls, feeding them yet more booze, and then having some kind of encounter, protected by his "entourage", in a dingy bathroom. It's tawdry, it could only lead to trouble, and it's not what someone like Mr. Roethlisberger should be doing, obviously. One gets the impression he's thought that, with his success, he can do anything...and get away with it. Maybe Commissioner Goodell should explain to him that that's not how it works.

BASEBALL DIARY:
Kansas City 10, Detroit 5: not a good day for the Tigers. 4 errors, including one dropped foul pop that was then followed by a big home run; walks; sloppy pitching. Let's hope it's just a one-day thing...
but meanwhile, Rangers 4, Indians 2 in 10 innings: the Rangers move back above the
.500 mark at 4-3. Nelson Cruz quietly has 5 home runs already. Rich Harden, on whom the Rangers are counting, had a quality start. Neftali Perez closed very effectively. A good day for Texas...

NBA DIARY:
Dallas 117, LA Clippers 91: sshhhh...don't tell anyone, but the Mavs are on a roll. They've won 4 straight, almost have the #2 seed in the West nailed down, and have looked dominant. Dirk Nowitzki with 25 points last night; Shawn Marion with 21...and Jason Kidd with 12 assists. Are they peaking at the right time? Or are they teasing everybody again> Right now I lean towards the former...

POLITICS/LEGISLATION UPDATE DEPT:
So the Democrats told us that once the health insurance bill was passed, the public would love it. And yet...several weeks after its passage, support for it has gone DOWN. The latest RCP average of polling on the health bill shows only 40$ in support; 53% disapproval...and that's a loss of at least 3 or 4 points in the last week or two. (Indeed, the latest Rasmussen poll found only 38% in favor, 58% opposed!)

Monday's musings

2010-04-12T08:07:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Tigers 9, Indians 8: quite a comeback victory for Detroit, although stranding 18 runners on base and having your ace Justin Verlander give up a bunch of runs make you scratch your head. But the Tigers hung in; their bullpen did a creditable job, rookie second baseman Scott Sizemore had 3 hits, and Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez continue to produce, so all those are positives. So is a 5-1 start...
Rangers 9, Mariners 2: well, the Rangers' first homestand of the year wasn't quite what they wanted; only a 3-3 record, but they did win 2 of 3 over the weekend. Scott Feldman pitched well yesterday; and really, Ranger pitching has been pretty solid overall. That's the good news. But who will close? And will this team hit like it can? Vlad Guerrero is hitting .500 so far this year, so that's an encouraging sign...

POLITICS/LEGISLATION UPDATE DEPT:
How long will it be until young people realize what the new health insurance bill does?:
"Under the health care overhaul, young adults who buy their own insurance will carry a heavier burden of the medical costs of older Americans — a shift expected to raise insurance premiums for young people when the plan takes full effect. Beginning in 2014, most Americans will be required to buy insurance or pay a tax penalty. That’s when premiums for young adults seeking coverage on the individual market would likely climb by 17 percent on average, or roughly $42 a month, according to an analysis of the plan conducted for The Associated Press."

The new law caps how much insurance companies can charge in premiums for older, less healthy Americans. The difference will have to be made up somehow.

Media Bias update:
A McClatchy headline from the other day:

"Unified By Hatred Of Obama, GOP Still Searches For Challenger"

Did reporters or headline writers ever characterize Democrats, from 2000 through 2008, as "unified by hatred of Bush"?
They should have. But you know they didn't.

Meanwhile, lots of good news for Republicans in the latest 2010 polls: in Pennsylvania, Toomey still leads Specter by 7. In Florida, staunch conservative Marco Rubio leads moderate Charlie Crist in the GOP Senate primary by a staggering 29 points.
Republicans appear to have a great shot at a pickup in the Senate in New Hampshire.
Republicans just need to remember--polls mean nothing if you don't get out and work.

Desperation time in Nevada:

Senate Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid meanwhile, behind in most polls--indeed, signifcantly behind--in his bid for 2010 re-election, is so desperate that he's come up with a strategy for winning with less than 50% of the vote:
"Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has been hammered for months from the left and right, with prognosticators in both parties predicting that Nevada voters will send him packing come November. But Reid, his reelection team and some Senate Democratic insiders are eyeing a bank shot to victory — one that involves enough voters picking third-party candidates or even “none of the above” to let Reid win reelection with less than 50 percent of the vote."

Do Reid and his handlers really believe that a significant number of Nevadans, who clearly don't like him, will take actions that will allow him to win? Hah.

Bacon love:
Apparently America's love for bacon is so far overcoming the scoldings of America's PC food police:
"Bacon is once more our true, national food crush, spanning all ages, all cultures and all meals. It binds us in its aromatic allure — and maybe in its outlaw luster. Like a freedom fighter emerging from an underground bunker, the smoky strips of crispy bliss somehow survived the rise and reign of the cholesterol cops. It’s primal. It’s sublime. It’s bacon. And it’s bigger than ever, baby. How do we know? We give you the KFC Double Down, two slabs of fried chicken and melted cheese all squeezed around a sacred centerpiece — two pieces of bacon. The breadless sandwich that some are calling “angina on a plate” debuts at KFC restaurants on Monday. If customers order the Original Recipe variety, their Double Down will pack 540 calories, 32 grams of fat and 1,380 milligrams of sodium, according to KFC."

And hey, as a good conservative/libertarian, I say that if you want to eat bacon, go for it. That's what liberty is all about. Though I have to add: I've tried turkey bacon, marketed by Oscar Mayer, and you know what? It's not bad--good on sandwiches, got lots of that bacon flavor, but without all the grease. Try it. But try it because you might like it, not because the food scolds tell you to.

Friday's fish fry

2010-04-09T08:08:00.000-07:00

BASEBALL DIARY:
Blue Jays 3, Rangers 1: the Rangers got an excellent start from pitcher C.J. Wilson. They'll need him. But they're not hitting yet as a team, and that's why they're 1-2 so far, scoring only 10 runs in 3 games.
But the Tigers are 2-1 on the young season, as Detroit beat Kansas City, 7-3. Keys--what else? Dontrelle Willis pitches 5 innings and only walks 2 and gives up 2 runs. Maybe he's over his social anxiety disorder at last. Everyone's pulling for him. And as it will likely be often this season, the Tigers needed Miguel Cabrera to come through for them and he did, going 4 for 5 with 4 RBIs.

POLITICS/LEGISLATION UPDATE DEPT:

Anti-abortion Democrat Bart Stupak, whose district encompasses the entire Upper Peninsula of Michigan and part of the upper lower peninsula, will retire. Another chance for a Republican pickup this fall; it's a district where, as long as the GOP works hard, it can win. Go after it, GOP!

And there's more bad news for Democrats today from the polling world:
"Americans' favorable rating of the Democratic Party dropped to 41% in a late March USA Today/Gallup poll, the lowest point in the 18-year history of this measure. Favorable impressions of the Republican Party are now at 42%, thus closing the gap between the two parties' images that has prevailed for the past four years."

In addition, the latest Fox News Poll now can be added to the list of polls that have found the Republicans leading the 2010 generic congressional ballot.

And it still looks like Democratic Senator Patty Murray of Washington faces a very tough race this year.

Barack Obama is proving to be the Republican Party's best friend.

Meanwhile, did you know that our friend to the north, Canada, is enforcing Canadian-correctness-of-the-political variety to such an extent that they seem to be massively violating free speech? For example:
"...since becoming a beacon of “restraint” and “civility,” Canada now prosecutes jokes. The British Columbia “Human Rights” Tribunal, under the same commissar who presided over a lengthy analysis of the “tone” of my own jokes, is currently trying stand-up comedian Guy Earle for his allegedly “homophobic” put-down of a heckler. Mr. Earle isn’t a right-wing hater like me and Miss Coulter. Until he fell afoul of his Sapphic heckler, he appears to have held conventionally Trudeaupian views. Left to his own devices, he would be more likely to essay an anti-Bush gag than one of Miss Coulter’s camel jests. But he’s wound up in court anyway, having lost three years of his life and facing $20,000 in punitive damages for a remark he made in the course of a stage act for which he received a $50 bar tab. The B.C. Supreme Court advised the tribunal against proceeding with their show trial on the grounds that it was not clear they had jurisdiction. So the tribunal went ahead anyway. Susan Cole’s Canada doesn’t “work” for Guy Earle. In fact, it’s destroyed him. “You better hope and pray that you aren’t next,” he writes. “And yet no one cares.”

I care. That's outrageous. And I hope more people care, real soon.

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-04-08T12:08:00.000-07:00

POLITICS/LEGISLATION UPDATE DEPT:
In jobs news, it was reported today:
"The number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance for the first time jumped last week, according to government data released Thursday. There were 460,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ended April 3, up 18,000 from an upwardly revised 442,000 the previous week, according to the Labor Department's weekly report."

I thought the great Obama "stimulus" package was supposed to be doing great things and eliminating this problem. Guess not...

By the way, Reason mag today has a terrific piece on what health insurance reform has done at the state level recently. Basically it's busted budgets--and so will ObamaCare:
"As spectacular failures go, it's hard to do worse than Tennessee. This early state attempt to dramatically increase health coverage, dubbed TennCare, started off promisingly. In 1994, the first year of its operation, the system added half a million new individuals to its rolls. Premiums were cheap—just $2.74 per month for people right above the poverty line—and liberal policy wonks loved it. The Urban Institute, for example, gave it good marks for "improving coverage of the uninsurable or high-risk individuals with very limited access to private coverage." At its peak, the program covered 1.4 million individuals—nearly a quarter of the state's population and more than any other state's Medicaid program—leaving just 6 percent of the state's population uninsured. But those benefits came at a high price. By 2001, the system's costs were growing faster than the state budget. The drive to increase coverage had not been matched by the drive to control costs. Vivian Riefberg, a partner at consulting firm McKinsey & Company, described it as having "almost across the board, no limits on scope and duration of coverage." Spending on drug coverage, in particular, had gone out of control: The state topped the nation in prescription drug use, and the program put no cap on how many prescription drugs a patient could receive. The result was that, by 2004, TennCare's drug benefits cost the state more than its entire higher education program. Meanwhile, in 1998, the program was opened to individuals at twice the poverty level, even if they had access to employer-provided insurance. In other words, the program's costs were uncontrolled and unsustainable. By 2004, the budget had jumped from $2.6 billion to $6.9 billion, and it accounted for a quarter of the state's appropriations. A McKinsey report projected that the program's costs could hit $12.8 billion by 2008, consuming 36 percent of state appropriations and 91 percent of new state tax revenues. On the question of the system's fiscal sustainability, the report concluded that, even if a number of planned reforms were implemented, the program would simply "not be financially viable."

BASEBALL DIARY:
Kansas City 3, Detroit 2 (11 innings): the Tigers get a solid start from Max Scherzer. That's great--they'll need him. But the offense can't do much, and closer Jose Valverde blows this one in the 11th after the Tigers had taken a lead. The bullpen won a game the other day; but this time they lose it.
Blue Jays 7, Rangers 4: the key to this game was Rangers' starter Rich Harden's walks--5, too many. And the fact that the Rangers mustered only 5 hits.

Wednesday's wash

2010-04-07T08:05:00.000-07:00

POLITICS/LEGISLATION UPDATE DEPT:
2010 elections talk--are Democrats in big trouble (not just the ordinary troubles a party in power faces in midterm elections)? Maybe:
"...note that today, 49 percent of registered voters say the representative in their congressional district deserves reelection, and 40 percent say their representative does not. In late October 2006, the split on that was 54 percent "deserves", 33 percent "doesn't deserve." In November 1994, the split on that question was 54 percent "deserves", 30 percent "doesn't deserve."

The RealClearPolitics average, now, for the generic 2010 congressional ballot? Republicans with a 2 point lead.

On President Obama's announcement of a new American policy on the use of nuclear weapons, conservative and former Bush administration member John Bolton had this to say:
"The Nuclear Posture Review is deeply troubling in many respects, starting at the conceptual level with its unfounded assertion that the need for American nuclear deterrence has declined. By further unilaterally limiting the circumstances in which the U.S. would use nuclear weapons to protect itself and its allies, the Obama administration is in fact increasing international instability and the risks of future conflicts."

Yep. I also liked what Jim Geraghty at NRO had to say: that for America the bar for using nukes has now been set higher. And yet...what we really ought to be worrying about is where our enemies have set their bars.

NCAA HOOPS DIARY:
That was one great game the other night, and while I was sad that Butler came oh so close but didn't quite pull it off...still, this piece and the Butler faithful there in Indianapolis have it exactly right: Butler and its team are champions, too.

Tuesday's trackings

2010-04-06T11:10:00.000-07:00

Just a few notes today.

POLITICS UPDATE DEPT:
In 2010 elections news, even a Democratic poll (the PPP poll) finds the Republican Toomey leading Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, the Democrat Russ Feingold is most definitely in trouble--especially if Tommy Thompson runs against him.

BASEBALL DIARY:
Yes, it's back again for another season. Here we go:
Tigers 8, Royals 4: it's only one win, but it's nice to win on Opening Day. The keys to the game: new acquisition Johnny Damon had two hits for the Tigers. And it was nice to see them score 8 runs; their offense is a question this season. And the Tigers' bullpen pitched 3 innings of shutout ball, including a solid inning from oft-injured Joel Zumaya. Keep the good times rolling...
And it was Rangers 5, Blue Jays 4: the Rangers had a good rally; they trailed 3-0 in the 7th, and were without a hit, before they came back. Closer Frankie Francisco pitched well late. Starter Scott Feldman pitched creditably, allowing only 3 runs in 6 innings. The Rangers won 87 games last year and have high expectations this year; team prez Nolan Ryan predicted 92 wins and a division title for them. This come-from-behind win is a good start towards fulfilling those expectations.

Monday's musings

2010-04-05T08:09:00.000-07:00

NFL NEWS DEPT:
So the Philadelphia Eagles did indeed trade their star quarterback, Donovan McNabb...but to a division rival, the Redskins, which nobody thought they would do:
"Donovan McNabb is changing uniforms and staying in the NFC East. The Philadelphia Eagles traded McNabb to the Washington Redskins for a pair of draft picks on Sunday night. The Eagles will receive a second-round pick (37th overall) in this month's NFL draft and either a third- or fourth-round pick next year."

Yes, I suppose this is where McNabb wanted to go, and Philly Coach Andy Reid wanted to accommodate him in that way. So that partly explains this. And yet...the Eagles didn't HAVE to give McNabb whatever he wanted (the Packers certainly didn't for Brett Favre, as they resisted Favre joining the Vikings for as long as Favre was on their roster). Trading him within the NFC East...guaranteeing that they'll play him at least twice a year...tells one that the Eagles truly believe McNabb is on the downward spiral, that he really doesn't have "it" anymore...and that he won't be able to significantly hurt them next year, and in the years to come.

We'll see if that turns out to be true. It might. McNabb struggled at the end of last year. But he's only 33. Think of all the good years John Elway had in his late 30s.

NCAA HOOPS DIARY:
Who will win the national championship tonight? It sure appears to me that Duke is the better team, and so if one is objectively trying to figure out who will win tonight...hey, you have to pick Duke. But still, I say: go, you Butler Bulldogs. A Butler victory tonight would be such a Cinderella story, such a huge upset, that I'd love to see it, and I sure hope we all do see it.

POLITICS AND LEGISLATION UPDATE DEPT:
Remember late last week, when it was reported that several state governors had received threatening letters from some kind of extremist group? Columnist Charles Krauthammer has a good response:
"Oh, come on, I get e-mails like that every week. And, you know, I don't hold any office. . . .The FBI is saying, they are announcing all of this because it could inflame people who are really weirder out there. And why would you announce it? If you announce and then you spread the word — it might actually increase the inflammation."

Makes one wonder if the Obama administration sought the release of these "threats" for political reasons--to once again try to stigmatize all conservatives, all on the Right, with this "extremist" tag.

THE COST OF OBAMACARE;
"Now that Obamacare has been enacted, we definitely won't be knocking any new archways through the wall at our restaurant and expanding into the empty storefront next door. With a waiting line on weekends, we could use the additional seats. The adjacent space could also be turned into a party room with seating for 50, perfect for communions, business meetings, and showers. But there will be no sawing and hammering or reducing the neighborhood's unemployment rate because we already have 42 employees and it's at 50 workers that the hefty new fines, mandates and penalties kick in under Obamacare."

Read the whole thing...

By the way, according to Democrats, just passing their health insurance reform plan would, why, just TURN AROUND the polling on it. America would like it! And quickly!!

Um...no. A CBS poll came out on the plan over the weekend. Those in favor: 32%. Those opposing??? A whopping 53%.

Friday's fish fry

2010-04-02T08:02:00.000-07:00

NCAA MARCH MADNESS:
No, not the current tournament, though it's been great.
Rather, I'm talking about what the NCAA is considering doing:
"The NCAA appears to be on the verge of expanding the men's basketball tournament to 96 teams. Insisting that nothing has been decided, NCAA vice president Greg Shaheen nonetheless outlined a detailed plan Thursday that included the logistics and timing of a 96-team tournament, how much time off the players would have and even revenue distribution."

Read the whole piece. A plan with that much detail suggests to me that, yes, it probably is almost decided. I don't think this new plan would ruin the tournament. But I'm not in favor of it. The tournament is great as is. This new format threatens to weaken the importance of the regular season, threatens to add a lot of games to an already-heavy early tourney schedule. Too much of a good thing? Too many games, almost? I do think Coach K of Duke is right when he suggests giving automatic tourney bids to both regular-season and conference-tourney champions. They both should get in. That way the regular season still means something.
We'll see what the reaction will be to this. Don't know that it will mean much, though. Because more games means more money for the NCAA, and that's what they want.

NBA DIARY:
Orlando 97, Dallas 82: not a loss I'd worry about too much. The Mavs were tired after on OT victory the night before; while Orlando had had over 3 days rest. The Magic shot 14 of 24 from 3 point land. When they do that, very few teams can beat them. The Mavs just need to bounce back.

POLITICS/LEGISLATION UPDATE DEPT:
A new CBS News poll has President Obama's job approval numbers at only 44%. Again, oh how the might's numbers have fallen...

Meanwhile, today President Obama hailed the new jobs report out today:
"The nation's economy posted its largest job gain in three years in March, while the unemployment rate remained at 9.7 percent for the third straight month. President Barack Obama on Friday hailed the report showing the largest job creation number in nearly three years. "We are beginning to turn the corner," he said."

Gosh. Imagine it was 2007, and that President Bush had hailed a jobs report in which unemployment had not fallen, no matter how many jobs were created. What would candidate Obama have said then?? Somehow I doubt he would have accepted a we've-turned-the-corner spin...

Well, one thing is certain: Obama's and the Democrats' spin on the economy the last few months hasn't won over too many Americans:
"More Americans say Republicans would be better for the economy, taking a position Democrats had held through Barack Obama’s presidency, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research poll out Friday. Forty-eight percent of the 1,009 adults surveyed nationwide said Republicans would “do a better job” of dealing with the economy, topping Democrats by three percentage points. The number is a contrast from August, when Democrats were rated as better on the economy by 52 percent compared with 39 percent for Republicans."

what a turnaround.

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-04-01T10:13:00.000-07:00

NBA DIARY:
Dallas 106, Memphis 102 (OT): the Mavs trailed by 13 at one point in the 4th quarter, and weren't playing well...mainly making too many turnovers. But a good team, when the door is left open for them, knows how to make a run late, and that's what Dallas did, outscoring Memphis 15-2 down the stretch and then hanging on to win in overtime. Key stats: Dirk Nowitzki, after struggling much of the game, made 6 of his final 8 shots. Dallas earned its 50th victory; that's now 10 straight years the Mavs have won 50 games.

POLITICS/LEGISLATION UPDATE DEPT:
Among 2010 Senate races, Arkansas incumbent Democrat Blanche Lincoln continues to be in big trouble--now she trails a likely GOP opponent by 15 points.

Sigh. Yesterday President Obama announced that he will allow some more offshore oil drilling, and the progressives at MSNBC's First Read naturally like it:
"The day-after coverage of Obama’s offshore drilling announcement is looking pretty positive for him so far."
It then cites a couple of examples. But sure, of course it all looks "positive"...because too many Obama cheerleaders in the media have chosen to ignore that this is yet another policy about-face by Obama. In the 2008 campaign he claimed he was against increasing drilling. Now he's done a 180. Too many folks don't care.

Wednesday's wash

2010-03-31T08:38:00.000-07:00

VOICES OF MODERATION DEPT:
As Jonah Goldberg shows well today, liberals claim to be voices of calm and they claim the extremism is on the Right. And yet it's the left fanning the flames of hysteria:
"Columnist Paul Krugman, who encouraged liberals to hang Sen. Joe Lieberman (I., Conn.) in effigy, is concerned about right-wing “eliminationist rhetoric.” The Washington Post’s Courtland Milloy can’t stand the incivility of the tea partiers, which is why he wants to “knock every racist and homophobic tooth out of their Cro-Magnon heads.” Frank Rich says the mantra “take our country back” is now code for a white racist backlash — though it was an apparently fine Democratic applause line when George W. Bush was president. So what’s the evidence for this new reign of terror? Those broken windows, some nasty voice and e-mail messages (not counting those aimed at Republicans, naturally), a coffin “left” at a Missouri congressman’s home, a few repugnant signs at rallies, and allegations from Reps. Emanuel Cleaver II (D., Mo.) and John Lewis (D., Ga.) that they were spit on and insulted with the “N-word,” respectively. But wait. The coffin was part of a protest over the death of “our freedoms” and was toted by the protesters, not left anywhere. And videos make it clear that what Cleaver called spitting was a protester spraying too much saliva while talking, the racist pig. As for the epithet aimed at Lewis, if it happened, it’s disgusting. But going by the video, there’s nothing to back it up, and the claim by Rep. Andre Carson (D., Ind.) that the N-word was chanted 15 times is pure dishonesty. Let’s assume it is true. I thought liberals rejected guilt by association as McCarthyism. Or are we to believe that every opponent of Obamacare is a racist?"

POLITICS/LEGISLATION UPDATE DEPT:
Even Gallup today has Republicans leading in the 2010 generic congressional ballot (by 3, 47-44).
Boy---some bump Democrats got from the passage of that health insurance bill, huh???

Tuesday's trackings

2010-03-30T12:21:00.000-07:00

POLITICS/LEGISLATION UPDATE DEPT:
Victor Davis Hanson today on NRO makes an excellent point concerning what else is wrong (among many things!) concerning the recent health insurance bill:
"The strangest thing about Obama's gargantuan, trillion-dollar-plus new health-care entitlement is the timing. Not only are we running $1.7 trillion annual deficits and scheduled to nearly double the $11 trillion debt in only eight years — and watching the logical end to an entitlement state in Greece's implosion — but we are witnessing the meltdown of almost every government-run program imaginable: Medicare is broke; the Postal Service is insolvent and cutting back Saturday service (but probably not a commensurate one-sixth of their budget); and now Social Security spends more than it takes in."

And the American people seem to agree:
"Nearly two-thirds of Americans say the health care overhaul signed into law last week costs too much and expands the government's role in health care too far, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, underscoring an uphill selling job ahead for President Obama and congressional Democrats. Those surveyed are inclined to fear that the massive legislation will increase their costs and hurt the quality of health care their families receive, although they are more positive about its impact on the nation's health care system overall."

Rasmussen now has Republicans leading in the generic congressional ballot by 7 points.

NBA DIARY:
Dallas 109, Denver 93: the Mavericks recently won 13 games in a row. They've been only 4-4 since then. But last night's win was big--they defeated a big rival, are a little bit more secure in the #2 position in the West, and showed again that they can play with the big boys. But they need more consistency. Key stat: Dirk Nowitzki's triple-double: 34 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists.

Monday's musings

2010-03-29T08:14:00.000-07:00

POLITICS AND LEGISLATION UPDATES DEPT:
The fallout from the health care bill continues:
"When historians recount the momentous events of recent weeks, they will note a curious coincidence. On March 15, Moody's Investors Service -- the bond rating agency -- published a paper warning that the exploding U.S. government debt could cause a downgrade of Treasury bonds. Just six days later, the House of Representatives passed President Obama's health care legislation costing $900 billion or so over a decade and worsening an already-bleak budget outlook.
Should the United States someday suffer a budget crisis, it will be hard not to conclude that Obama and his allies sowed the seeds, because they ignored conspicuous warnings. A further irony will not escape historians. For two years, Obama and members of Congress have angrily blamed the shortsightedness and selfishness of bankers and rating agencies for causing the recent financial crisis. The president and his supporters, the historians will note, were equally shortsighted and self-centered -- though their quest was for political glory, not financial gain."

By the way, the RCP average on poll numbers for the Obama/Democratic health care bill still remains at, on average, 41% favor the plan; 50% oppose.

Nor is the Obama Administration's policy on releasing supposedly "rehabilitated" and/or wrongly-accused ex-terrorists from Gitmo looking much better:
"Prior to his release in December, Abdul Hafiz was Prisoner Number 1030 at Guantanamo Bay. Now, less than four months later, he's back home in Afghanistan and working for the Taliban -- just the latest of more than 100 released detainees who have returned to terrorism, according to the Pentagon."

NCAA HOOPS DIARY:
Ah, the joy of March Madness, as Butler and now Michigan State make it to the Final Four. MSU did it with a lot of blood, sweat, and tears, as somehow they stitched things together following the Kalin Lucas injury. Perhaps the key stat: Coach Tom Izzo has now been to 6 Final Fours in 12 years; pretty impressive. His savvy had a lot to do with the Spartans being able to make yet another March run...

But at the same time, ah, the pain--as in women's hoops, the Notre Dame women lose in the sweet 16, 77-72 in OT to Oklahoma. Hey, the Irish played a tough, talented team, and it just didn't go their way. It hurts, though, for the 4 seniors on the ND team, especially Ashley Barlow, Melissa Lechlitner, and Lindsay Schrader, who have played so hard and contributed so much to the program...and yet they never got to an elite 8, much less a final four. But life isn't always fair. They definitely kept the ND women's program on the map, and that's something to be proud of.
I think what may have done the Irish in was the fact that they never quite developed a big enough inside presence. Oklahoma had Abby Olajuwon--yes, the daughter of Hakeeom--who powered her way inside for 20 points. ND had few answers there. When the Irish won the national title back in 2001, they had Ruth Riley. I guess Coach McGraw needs to find another Ruth. But someone as special and dominant as Riley was is not easy to find...

Friday's fish fry

2010-03-26T08:17:00.000-07:00

NCAA HOOPS DIARY:
I meant to pick last night's games here in this space yesterday, but forgot. Anyway, my picks were nothing special--I picked West Virginia, Kentucky, and Kansas State correctly, but didn't have Butler (but then, who did?). In any case, the big story was the drama from Butler/Syracuse and K-State/Xavier. This year the madness has been terrific.
Butler deserves all the recognition it's getting; it's been an outstanding program over a long period of time, and has been to 3 sweet 16s this decade.

All right, so let me pick tonight's games:

Tennessee vs Ohio State. PICK: BUCKEYES. OSU has one of the best players in the nation in Evan Turner; and the Buckeyes have won 9 straight. One lesson from this tournament is: go with the hot team (Butler hasn't lost a game since December).

St. Mary's vs Baylor. PICK: BAYLOR BEARS. I have Baylor going to the final four in my bracket. I won't desert them now. Baylor has size and length inside, and good guards who can penetrate and shoot from deep. I greatly respect St. Mary's, and this will be a tough, tough battle. But I think Baylor will squeak it out.

Northern Iowa vs Michigan State. PICK: SPARTANS. The trendy thing is to pick Northern Iowa, given their record, their defeat of Kansas (which didn't look like a huge fluke) and the Kalin Lucas injury for MSU. But: Tom Izzo loves challenges like this; I think he'd rather have his team be kind of an underdog; and I suspect the Lucas injury will make the Spartans rally around each other and play that much harder. And they still have plenty of talent, scoring, and rebounding ability to win.

Purdue vs Duke. PICK: BLUE DEVILS. Again, one has to give huge props to Purdue for what they've done, for their toughness and tenacity in advancing this far despite the Hummel injury. But you've gotta think that Duke's defensive toughness, talent, and ability to shoot from deep will be too much for the Boilers this time to overcome.

POLITICS AND LEGISLATION DEPT:
Another roundup of the business casualties from ObamaCare:

"What do Caterpillar and John Deere have in common? Besides being America's two biggest makers of heavy equipment, they have both announced huge increases in expenses due to ObamaCare. Wednesday, Caterpillar made official its estimate of $100 million in increased costs for 2011, though they will take the charge this year. Yesterday, John Deere said it will face an additional $150 million in increased costs for 2010 in order to comply with the Democrats' assault on America's health care and health insurance systems, eliminating about 11% of the company's profits for the year."

Do Democrats even care about this?
Maybe not. If you look at what some of our liberal/Democratic friends in the news media are saying today, they're convinced that Democrats are winning on this issue. Take for example Chuck Todd and his NBC pals over at msnbc.com:
"Did Democrats get their groove back after this week’s passage of the most expansive social legislation in decades? It sure looks like it. President Obama had a pep in his step in Iowa yesterday; Democratic members of Congress have looked downright giddy; the Internet Left, despite its disappointment over the past year, appears more energized; and Democratic candidates are playing offense on health care."

Typical--convinced Dems are doing great...but because they want to believe it, not based on any solid evidence (one notes not one poll was cited).

Thursday's throwdowns

2010-03-25T07:53:00.000-07:00

SHOWBIZ/TABLOID BEAT:
So Jake Pavelka's ex-girlfriend slams the star of "The Bachelor" and claims he tried to rig the show.
Right--a real unbiased observer there. No axe to grind. None!

POLITICS AND LEGISLATION DEPT:
So what effect is ObamaCare having so far? Well:
"Democrats dragged themselves over the health-care finish line in part by repeating that voters would like the plan once it passed. Let's see what they think when they learn their insurance costs will jump right away. Even before President Obama signed the bill on Tuesday, Caterpillar said it would cost the company at least $100 million more in the first year alone. Medical device maker Medtronic warned that new taxes on its products could force it to lay off a thousand workers. Now Verizon joins the roll of businesses staring at adverse consequences. In an email titled "President Obama Signs Health Care Legislation" sent to all employees Tuesday night, the telecom giant warned that "we expect that Verizon's costs will increase in the short term." While executive vice president for human resources Marc Reed wrote that "it is difficult at this point to gauge the precise impact of this legislation," and that ObamaCare does reflect some of the company's policy priorities, the message to workers was clear: Expect changes for the worse to your health benefits as the direct result of this bill, and maybe as soon as this year."

Read the whole thing.

In 2010 elections news, Senate Democrat Barbara Boxer of California? She's still in trouble.
Not only because the polls are tight already, but especially because she doesn't come close to the 50% mark.

Meanwhile, liberal acquaintances of mine have been trying to push the notion that the American people already have a more favorable view of the health care bill, now that it's passed. Really? You'd think if that was true, then their view of President Obama would have improved...right? Lord knows how hard he pushed for the bill. But:
"Despite passage of his signature health reform bill, President Barack Obama still gets a split 45 – 46 percent approval from American voters in a Quinnipiac University national poll conducted Monday and Tuesday, compared to a negative 46 – 49 percent approval in a survey concluded Sunday before the House of Representatives voted on the health care bill. These are President Obama’s worst grades so far, tying his 45 – 46 percent approval February 11."

Other political news this week, of course, has been troubling:
"House Republican Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.) said today a bullet was shot through the window of his campaign office in Richmond, Va. this week, giving just another example of the numerous acts of violence and threats against members of Congress this week. Just about all the reported incidents have targeted Democratic members in the wake of their support for health care reform, but Cantor today blasted Democrats -- calling out two party leaders in particular -- for "ratcheting up the rhetoric" surrounding the dangerous threats and blaming Republicans for inciting the hostility."

Cantor has a good point, but we must also say this: anyone making death threats against Democrats who voted in favor of the health care bill is both wrong and immoral. This has got to stop. Anyone who calls himself a conservative who is doing such things is neither responsible, nor a conservative. What we must do is, very simple, point out rationally, day after day, why this health care bill is bad for the country; and begin to make our case for the 2010 elections, that we may vote out those who have supported that bill and vote in those we favor. That's it. Making death threats hurts our cause. It must stop.

Wednesday's wash

2010-03-24T08:17:00.000-07:00

NFL NEWS DEPT:
For the playoffs next season, the overtime rule is tweaked:
"The NFL owners voted to change an element in the overtime rule, giving the team that loses the coin toss at the start of overtime to get a possession if the coin-toss winning team scores a field goal with the first possession. The proposal passed 28-4. As it is written, the rules change applies just for the postseason, but the owners also decided to discuss adopting the changes for the regular season at their next meeting, in May in Dallas."

Good change. It just seems to me that both teams should at least have a shot...at having a shot (i.e. the ball). They do so in basketball; a 5 minute OT means both teams will have a chance--indeed, several chances--to go on offense. They do so in baseball; in extra innings, both teams get a chance to hit. Now there will be that chance in football, providing one's defense can hold the other guys to less than a TD. And think of the strategy involved: it's OT, your team has the ball first, you drive down other team's, say, 9 yard line...4th down and 2. Go for the field goal? Or the TD? Fascinating strategy call.
But I also agree with Wojo on espn.com--extend this rule to the regular season, too. And I predict they will.

NBA DIARY:
Dallas 106, Los Angeles Clippers 96: the Mavs, after their 13-game win streak, have lost 3 of 4, played horribly defensively, and made a lot of turnovers. But last night maybe they got back on a good track, beating the Clippers and playing a better overall game. They're still tied for 2nd place in the Western Conference with Denver, so there's still a chance to get in good position going into the playoffs. Key stats: 37-year-old Jason Kidd scores 26 points. And defensively, the Mavs got LA to miss 17 of 22 shots in the 4th quarter. Why don't they play defense like that more consistently? The eternal question...

NCAA HOOPS DIARY:
Women's NCAA Tournament: Notre Dame 84, Vermont 66: The Irish advance to the sweet 16, for the 8th time since 1997. Let's face it, they were the favorites in this game; ND's a 2 seed, Vermont a 10. But you still have to get it done on the court, and the Irish did, against a hot team that beat Wisconsin in its last game. Key stats: well, mainly it's about Skylar Diggins, who lit up the Catamounts for 31 points; she herself forced 10 Vermont turnovers. Also key was rebounding, always an Irish problem. But last night Notre Dame out-rebounded its opponent, 34-29. Now on to the sweet 16...

POLITICS ETC UPDATE:
Beware of the new health insurance bill:
"The legislation allocates $10 billion to pay for 16,500 IRS agents who will collect and enforce mandatory “premiums.” Does that sound like the private sector at work to you?"

Nope. And as Thomas Sowell today adds:
"Under the headline “Costly Bill Seen as Saving Money,” the San Francisco Chronicle last week began a front-page story with these words: “Many people find it hard to understand how the health care legislation heading for a decisive vote Sunday can cost $940 billion and cut the horrendous federal deficit at the same time.” It’s not hard to understand at all. It is a lie. What makes this particular lie pass muster with many people who might otherwise use their common sense is that the Congressional Budget Office vouched for the consistency of the budget numbers that say you can add millions of people to a government-run system and yet save money."

The CBO said what it said partly because Congress claimed it will cut Medicare by HALF-A-TRILLION DOLLARS...did you get that figure?--every decade. No way that will happen...

I see that some Democrats and liberals are trying to claim already that passage of the health care bill has made it more popular with Americans. Really? Check out this CNN poll on the generic congressional ballot, which came out today:
It's got 48% of respondents planning to vote Republican in November; only 45% plan to vote Democrat. So, let's see, people love this health care bill...which Republicans opposed UNANIMOUSLY...but more of them plan to vote GOP than vote Democratic? Give me a break!
By the way, Quinnipiac has Republicans leading the generic congressional ballot, too.

Meanwhile, the passage of this health care legislation is bringing the so-called "experts" who claim to know what's best for you and are convinced that you don't, out of the woodwork. Did you know that this health care bill has new regulations for restaurants? Read on, and see what an "expert" says about it:
"The health care bill signed into law Tuesday by President Obama is the nation's most sweeping social legislation in four decades. But it also includes some smaller changes that will directly affect consumers. These include taxes on indoor tanning services, requirements for restaurants to post calorie information and changes to flexible spending accounts...There are 540 calories in a Big Mac and 670 calories in a Whopper. Nutritional information will be unavoidable when customers step up to the counter to order. The health care law requires chain restaurants that have more than 20 locations to display calorie information next to the food item on the standard menu...The health care law requires "succinct statement concerning suggested daily caloric intake" that are "posted prominently on the menu and designed to enable the public to understand, in the context of a total daily diet, the significance of the caloric information that is provided on the menu."
Dr. Kelly Brownell, a Yale University psychology professor at the Rudd Center for Food Policy and Obesity, conducted research that found that consumers choose lower-calorie food when their menus contained caloric information and a statement that said "an average person consumes 2,000 calories a day."

Argh. Come off it, Dr. Brownell! People know very well that big hamburgers have a lot of calories. People aren't stupid; and they don't need you to tell them they're eating high-calorie food. They choose to do it. When will people like yourselves learn to live with this? When will you learn that, in a republic based on freedom and liberty, as our nation is supposed to be, the choice that people make to eat fattening foods or whatever is a choice that "experts" like yourselves need to learn to live with???? When????? Probably never.

"A lot of people don't know what it means to have 600 calories," he said. "They have no context and the legislation requires that anchor statement."

Tuesday's trackings

2010-03-23T12:00:00.000-07:00

HEALTH CARE/OTHER POLITICAL STUFF DEPT:
For conservatives, yes, we're fired up to fight the bill just passed--but as Mark Steyn points out today, it's passage also has to be troubling:
"Is America set for decline? It’s been a grand run. The country’s been the leading economic power since it overtook Britain in the 1880s. That’s impressive. Nevertheless, over the course of that century and a quarter, Detroit went from the world’s industrial powerhouse to an urban wasteland, and the once-golden state of California atrophied into a land of government run by the government for the government. What happens when the policies that brought ruin to Detroit and sclerosis to California become the basis for the nation at large? Strictly on the numbers, the United States is in the express lane to Declinistan: unsustainable entitlements, the remorseless governmentalization of the economy and individual liberty, and a centralization of power that will cripple a nation of this size. Decline is the way to bet. But what will ensure it is if the American people accept decline as a price worth paying for European social democracy."

By the way, Nancy Pelosi claimed this health care bill will almost immediately create something like 400,000 jobs. Nonsense--it will cost jobs:
"The people at Zoll Medical Corporation saw a ray of hope in January when Scott Brown was elected senator from Massachusetts. Located in Chelmsford, 30 miles outside Boston, Zoll is the nation's leading manufacturer of heart defibrillators, which save thousands of heart attack victims each year. Back in January, as the Senate race was raging, both House and Senate Democrats wanted to impose a crippling new tax on the makers of medical devices, Zoll included, to help pay for Obamacare.
The total tax on the industry would be about $2 billion a year, or $20 billion over the next decade. Companies watched nervously as lawmakers pushed ahead, first the House and then the Senate. But then Brown was elected on the promise to be the crucial Republican vote to stop health care reform. For Zoll, things were looking up.
Not anymore. The bill passed by the House Sunday night contains a particularly damaging version of the $20 billion hit for the medical device industry, meaning Zoll and other medical device makers could well be headed for hard times."

Monday's musings

2010-03-22T08:18:00.000-07:00

HEALTH CARE REFORM/OTHER POLITICAL STUFF UPDATE DEPT:
Well, ObamaCare is almost certainly passed. Democrats think they can sell it.
What Republicans and conservatives have to do now is to keep the focus on this legislation, and to especially point out to people the problems that crop up with it, as they certainly will--the bureaucracy, that is, the red tape, the cost overruns, the fact that this thing certainly will not result in the deficit savings that its sponsors predict, that it will cost far more than its sponsors predict. And we can unify around a simple idea: repeal. And while that will undoubtedly not come easily or soon, still it will give Republicans and conservatives a chance to prove that liberal entitlement programs are not inevitable and, once passed, are not set in stone. Let's get to work...

Conservative writer Peter Wehner has some good analysis today:
“In the short term Obama will get a boost, because the narrative is that he came back from the dead and got done what no president has managed to do in 70 years,” said Peter Wehner, who was a political adviser to President Bush. “But once people discover that their Medicare taxes are going up, that there are deeper cuts in Medicare Advantage, that there are court challenges to many provisions, and that the process of getting it passed created a portrait of corruption, it won’t sit well.”

Philip Klein at the American Spectator also has excellent advice for conservatives and the way forward:
" If Obamacare is fully enacted, then conservatives should make sure that Democrats are held accountable for the problems with the health care system. The rising premiums should be blamed on the burdensome regulations that force individuals to purchase the amount of insurance that the federal government dictates they must have, rather than the type that they freely choose. The out of control health care spending should be blamed on the reality that when the government is picking up the tab for something, people tend to spend more. The crushing deficits we'll be facing should be blamed on the accounting tricks Democrats used to hide the true cost of their proposals. When Americans have to undergo long wait times in doctors offices, when individuals have to file their tax returns each year and present proof of government-approved insurance or pay more taxes, when the private sector has to digest a raft of new taxes and mandates, they'll be more open to hearing conservative alternatives. Keep in mind that this will all be happening within the broader context of the entitlement crisis, with Social Security and Medicare running deficits, and further reinforcing the unaffordable cost of massive government."

Certainly no sign it's sitting well with anyone much right now, even after passage; a CNN poll out today shows only 39% of respondents support the health care plan; 59% oppose. Good luck, Dems!!

NCAA HOOPS UPDATE:
Women's hoops--Notre Dame advances to the 2nd round of the women's tournament, beating Cleveland State as expected, 86-58. Key stat: the Notre Dame bench tallies 44 of the team's 86 points, over half. Now the Irish must beat #10 seed Vermont to get to the sweet 16. Don't you dare take any team lightly, ND (I suspect Coach McGraw will see to it that they don't)...
Men's hoops: Michigan State 85, Maryland 83: wow, how sometimes do the Spartans do it? This is now a team seriously bothered by injuries, especially with point guard Kalin Lucas likely out for the rest of the tournament with a torn Achilles. And yet they found a way to win this game, on Korey Lucious' last-second shot. Key stat? To me, it was Durrell Summers coming into his own and scoring 26 points from the wing. MSU will need more of that against Northern Iowa...